In 2002 Scout.com began ranking each school’s recruiting class by assigning each player a star value and evaluating the entire class at the end of the signing period.  The Mythical Recruiting Championship is usually a heated battle between some of the major powers in college football that provides great fuel for the message board warrior and true college football junkie in the off-season.  The recruiting wars give traditional powers that have been down a chance to beat their chest over landing the “next sure thing” in college football.  Most casual college football fans do not even concern themselves with recruiting ranks, star power, commits, total points, etc.  However, for the die-hard junkie these numbers can make or break our off-season and overall outlook for the next two years.  We use them to fuel our arguments against our rivals and how next year is going to be different with “Joe Quarterback” leading us down the field.  The REAL question is how much do these ranking really matter in the grand scheme winning the ultimate prize.  I decided to break down the recruiting classes for each team that participated in the BCS National Championship since 2005.

I left the names of each team out (yeah yeah most you know) in order to focus of the raw data.  The numbers represent the average star ranking of each team’s past 4 recruiting classes participating in the BCS Title Game.  Even with the extremely small sample size, we can conclude that having the highest ranked players coming out of high school does not guarantee your School a victory or even an appearance in the title game.  However, I believe these numbers do give some validity to the importance we place on getting the 4/5 star prospects coming out of High School and their importance in claiming the Ultimate prize.  The lowest average for a School participating in a Title game was 3.4275 stars over 4 years of recruiting and that number was pulled down by their 2007 class that had an average star ranking of only 3.08.  These numbers support the assumption that college football is a very top heavy game and that only a few schools each season truly have a legitimate chance for playing in the BCS Title Game (Playoff anyone?).   So what type of recruiting numbers should be shooting for in Order to have a chance at becoming a BCS Champion?  The Following numbers break down the past 5 BCS Champions in order to give you an idea of the numbers your schools needs to strive for.

Also, compare the winning and losing teams and their respective recruiting classes (average stars) in the same championship games:

The Chart really drives through the importance of those 4 and 5 star recruits that we love to speculate about in the off season.  Four of the five past BCS Champions had 2 top five classes at their disposal to help them secure that crystal ball.  I believe these numbers prove that in order to win the title game you must have consistent recruiting each year along with a developed top 5 class.  The majority of top 5 classes on these championship teams were experienced upperclassmen.  I realize these numbers are not the only key to success for winning that National Championship but it does prove that securing those 4/5 star prospects is essential in winning these big games.

Now watch Boise State win it all in 2010 to blow all these numbers out of the water.