Who else sits there watching the College Gameday Crew calling out their “expert picks” and imagines how easy betting would be without the spread? I also find it very annoying that the guys that go 1 for 5 picking games don’t have to face some sort of punishment at the next stop (imagine Lee Corso being dropped into a dunk tank for putting on the wrong hat yet again). In this brief but highly degenerate column, I am going to give you my top 5 picks to bet on each week along with 5 picks to avoid like the plague or Brandon Spikes on Chat Roulette.

I have been gambling (with moderate success) for almost a decade now and college football always seems to bail out my summer of failed MLB betting. I like to combine my gut feeling along with some research in my picks. Each week you will have the chance to come back to the column and berate/thank me for the previous weeks picks. We are going to be keeping a running tally on my picks and I will be placing my own money on my top 5 picks every week. Instead of listing the dollar amounts for each game, I am going to give you the amount of units that I am wagering on each game. The key to having a winning sports betting season is to be consistent and avoid swinging for the fences early in the season. If you are just starting out in sports betting, depositing a set amount and dividing that deposit up into 100 units is a solid foundation for success.

Top 5 College Football Picks for September 4, 2010

1.  “Lock of the week”: Fresno State at -2.5 vs.  Cincinnati.  (4 units)

I realize that Zach Collaros is a great young quarterback but the Bearcats simply lost too much leadership to have a repeat of their 2009 undefeated regular season.  They lost leaders on offense in Mardy Gilyard and Tony Pike to the NFL and their head coach is now at his dream job in South Bend.  Fresno State is one of the mid-majors that are not afraid to schedule the big boys and competes with them almost every time.  Pat Hill (Fresno State) is a former NFL guy that knows how to build a winning program.  I think the spread might move closer to even at game time due to all the people betting on Cincinnati’s name recognition.   Not to mention the bearcats are traveling all the way to the West Coast for a 10 p.m. start time.

2.  UCLA at +1.5 @ Kansas State (3 units)

I think UCLA is going to be a program on the rise in 2010 and what better way to kick off the season than a win on the road against a middle of the pack Big 12 team.  Rick Neuheisel has quietly been bringing in some very good talent and has benefited from the chaos going on at USC.  The Bruins went on the Road in 2009 and defeated the Tennessee Volunteers @ Neyland.  I am actually surprised the Bruins are getting anything at all in this match-up.

3.  Washington at +3 @ BYU (2 units)

All we have been hearing about this off-season is how Jake Locker could have been the number one pick in 2009 but decided to return to college football to make a bowl game.  Well Jake, here is your first step to having a winning season in 2010 and padding my bank account.  I really like the coaching staff at Washington and actually think this team might have a chance to compete for a Pac-10 Title this year.  Regardless, these are not the dream-crushing huskies of 2008 and should be able to compete with BYU.  After watching Florida State come into town and torch BYU with Ponder, I really do not have a ton of trust in the BYU defense.

4.  Notre Dame at -11 vs. Purdue (1 unit)

Did I really just advise people to bet on Notre Dame.  I think this is the first time in the history of me betting on college football that I have wagered my own money on Notre Dame.  I mean I have taken advantage of their “loyal to a fault” fans tons of times to make money.  However, I think Brian Kelly is the real deal and has had the entire off-season to work with some talented players.  Charlie Weiss was the Ron Zook of Notre Dame.  He knew how to bring in talent but was never going to succeed as the leader of a program.  They also might have the best Wide Receiver in College Football with Michael Floyd.

5.  Arizona at -16 @ Toledo (1 unit)

I think Mike Stoops has this team on the verge of breaking out in the Pac 10. If the spread was closer to -10, I would have a lot more confidence in this pick.

Top 5 Games to Avoid

1.  Colorado State (+11.5) @ Colorado (-11.5): avoid rivalry games at all cost

2.  Kentucky (-3) @ Louisville (+3): see above, not to mention two brand new coaches

3.  Memphis (+21) @ Mississippi State (-21):  I realize Memphis is bad but is MSU that good on offense?

4.  Wisconsin (-20.5) @ UNLV (+20):  Why is Wisconsin opening their season on the road in Vegas?  I would actually consider betting UNLV in this game if I had any clue about them.

5.  San Jose State (+37.5) @ Alabama (-37.5):  Please avoid betting on games that have a 5+ touchdown spread.