Ten Events That Could Trigger SEC Expansion
In my previous article describing a possible future for the SEC (c. 2021), I accepted the conference’s expansion to 16 schools as a foregone conclusion. Even the comments on the article seemed to concur that expansion would happen, although there was spirited disagreement over what four schools would join. Of course, I was not making a prediction, merely offering one of any number of expansion scenarios.
But in order to project where the SEC might expand, we should first consider the factors that may (or will) prompt expansion. It’s not so much a question of whether SEC leaders want to expand, but whether certain internal or external factors will force the issue. Below I consider ten such factors.
The Longhorns are a major potential catalyst for conference realignment - photo by Icon SMI
1. Texas A&M wants out from under Texas’ thumb
Just as every NFL expansion/relocation scenario starts with Los Angeles, every SEC expansion discussion begins with College Station, Texas. During the 2010 conference reshuffling, numerous reports claimed Texas A&M was able, willing and ready to jump from the sinking ship of the Big 12 to the SEC. While that didn’t happen — and SEC Commissioner Mike Slive refused to confirm he ever offered A&M membership — the rumors never died. Just recently some outlets reported, yet again, that A&M was on the verge of becoming the SEC’s 13th membership. And once again, nobody in a position of authority at either College Station or the SEC offices in Atlanta gave any public indication that such a move was in the offering.
It doesn’t matter if the rumors are substantiated. There is clearly grassroots support at the fan and booster levels for an A&M move. The question is if and when the movement reaches critical mass. Some would say that moment has come with the creation of the all-Texas, all-the-time Longhorn Network, a joint venture with ESPN. The network’s creation was Texas’ price for not jumping to the Pac-12 during the last round of conference realignment, and that only reinforces A&M second-class status (at least in the minds of many A&M boosters). If the network succeeds and further entrenches Texas at the top of the Big 12, it’s almost impossible to see why A&M wouldn’t beg the SEC to take it in.
2. The Longhorn and Pac-12 Networks will force the SEC to adapt to a changing media landscape
The Longhorn Network isn’t just a Texas A&M problem. The SEC faces a constantly evolving media landscape. Just witness the recent announcement of the Pac-12 Network, which will include a national cable network and six regional networks in each of the conference’s states. While the SEC has a lucrative long-term television contract with ESPN, Texas and the Pac-12 are betting their futures on more targeted distribution channels. College football as a whole is ripe for this type of audience-specific programming, and if the SEC doesn’t want to lose its competitive edge, it will need to find new and better ways to develop such channels.
This leads directly back to expansion, particularly Texas A&M. If the SEC wants to form a Pac-12-like network, for example, having a presence in Texas would certainly be helpful.
3. Texas goes independent, leaving Oklahoma and Missouri behind as “free agents”
For its part, Texas looks at the Longhorn Network as a trial balloon for full-blown independent status. It may sound nuts in theory — the only major independents are the military academies at West Point and Annapolis and the sectarian Notre Dame and BYU — but with the Big 12 on life support, Texas has a viable claim to be the first major public independent football power since before Penn State joined the Big 10.
If Texas declares independence sooner rather than later, the rest of the Big 12 will be left scrambling to find new conference homes. From the SEC’s perspective, Oklahoma and Missouri would be attractive targets. Oklahoma has tradition and a substantial alumni base, while Missouri straddles two lucrative media markets.
4. Conversely, the SEC will need to defend its home turf from Big 10 and Texas/Big 12 encroachment
Missouri and Oklahoma would also be attractive targets for the Big Ten, but Commissioner Jim Delaney and company may also look towards a “Southern offensive” with eyes on building a foothold for the Big Ten Network in SEC territory. While it’s inconceivable an SEC school would turn Yankee, ACC schools like Virginia Tech and Georgia Tech would fit the Big Ten’s profile and expand its footprint. This could prompt the SEC to look inward for expansion, inviting schools that share a state with the SEC — Clemson, Louisville, Florida State, and the aforementioned Georgia Tech — to create a united South.
5. The ACC is ripe for the picking
It’s not coincidental that most of the schools mentioned above all hail from the ACC. The conference is stagnant if not in freefall. North Carolina’s recent ouster of Butch Davis — and the likely NCAA sanctions to follow — will halt that program’s nascent progress. Florida State and Virginia Tech remain the sole football powers within a conference that remains wedded to its Tobacco Road basketball identity. The 2004–2005 expansion that brought Tech, Miami, and Boston College has not significantly improved the conference’s football prowess (no ACC school has played for a BCS title since Florida State won in 1999).
The conference will only fall further behind the SEC and Big 10 as the decade continues. That makes the conference’s outlying football provinces — Virginia Tech and Florida State — susceptible to an invitation from the SEC or another expansion-minded conference. If there is a full-scale stampede away from the SEC, lesser prizes like Clemson and Maryland may also be available.
6. Mounting NCAA scandals lead to a “strength in numbers” defense
Every week brings a new scandal, particularly in the Age of Twitter. Auburn, Alabama, and Tennessee have been under the gun lately, and it’s likely that every SEC program (sans perhaps Vanderbilt) will face a fresh round of real or imagined allegations over the next few years. Oddly enough, this may provide additional impetus for expansion, as the SEC seeks additional members to help cushion the blow should any one member — particularly a heavy hitter like the three aforementioned schools — suffer a major setback at the hands of the NCAA.
7. The Longhorn Network stumbles, the Big 12 crumbles, and Texas joins forces with the enemy
As an alternative to the scenarios above, it’s entirely possible the Longhorn Network fails to give Texas the leverage it needs to go independent — yet the Big 12 still crumbles as other conferences steal away the other schools. Could such a scenario lead to Texas joining forces with the SEC? It could be sold as a “merger of equals” with the Longhorn Network merging into an SEC Network that mimics the new Pac 12 arrangement. The SEC plus Texas would certainly cement the conference’s top-dog standing over the Pac 12 and Big Ten, and it might even prompt the eventual secession of the “mega-conferences” into a new, playoff-equipped college football alliance.
8. The BCS crumbles under political attack, prompting the rush to create playoff-ready “superconferences”
Speaking of playoffs, the political war against the BCS has only just begun. Utah is preparing an antitrust lawsuit, which the Justice Department could join, and the recent Fiesta Bowl financial scandal will only further calls for greater regulatory scrutiny of the decentralized BCS system. Even if government officials don’t bring the BCS down directly, the cumulative weight may force the system’s leaders — that is, the conference commissioners — to abandon ship. As noted above, this likely means the major conferences will look to expand and secede from the NCAA altogether; 16-team conferences are likely the entrance requirement to get into the next postseason system.
9. A second-tier school — that nonetheless meets the SEC’s profile — makes a major investment to move up
The above scenarios all address existing “Big Six” conference programs moving to the SEC. But college football isn’t a static industry. Lower-tier programs are always pressing — and paying — to move up. Memphis, UAB and East Carolina are two examples of schools that could fit the SEC profile
10. Something really crazy happens
Really, the only scenario I would place in this category is the leadership at Notre Dame goes nuts and begs to join the SEC. I can’t even explain why this might happen or why it would make sense. But unexpected things do happen in sports with some regularity (i.e. Lane Kiffin’s career).
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The Pac-12 Network is pretty impressive combining the overarching network with the six regional networks. I think that more conferences will go in this direction, especially the SEC since it makes sense from a revenue maximizing stand point. I’m not exactly sure how the regions would break down, however. Maybe something as follows:
1. Vandy, Tennessee, Kentucky
2. South Carolina, Georgia, Florida
3. Alabama, Auburn
4. Mississippi, Miss State
5. Arkansas, LSU
While your lineup works state by state it just doesnt work for me. I live in Georgia but never miss an Alabama game. How about this.
1) 3 highest ranked SEC teams play every week on this channel since the higher a team is ranked the more people want to watch.
2) UGA, SC, Bama, Auburn, Florida
3) UF, SC, Vandy, Tennesse
4) Tennessee, Kentucky, UGA
5) Bama, Auburn, LSU, Arkansas
6) LSU, Arkansas, Miss St., Ole Miss
This lineup could pretty much make everyone happy throughout the SEC. UGA, UF, UT, BAMA, AU, and LSU all have larger fanbases hince on more channels. One each one you would be able to keep an eye on your biggest rival and the first channel takes the strain off of any single channel by picking up the three highest ranked.
From the ACC I want no one else but the Virginia Tech Hokies. I would accept the Aggies into the league because I think that is a foregone conclusion. However, I would love to see either Oklahoma or Missouri join, and that would cause major reshuffling into mix as a conference.
Yeah Im sure you dont want the FSU game to really count during the season the way they are taking over.
Taking over what? FSU is one for their last eight against the Gators. It’s quite comical, they run their mouths after they defeat Florida. If FSU doesn’t win the ACC this year, they are a total joke.
However, by you saying that FSU is taking over, I can likewise say Auburn is taking over.
The past two seasons FSU has dominated the state and country in recruiting and are building a powerhouse in Tallahassee. With a Saban trained coach and great recruiting the will be a force to rekon with for years to come. It wouldnt surprise me that this year starts the FSU domination of the ACC and UF.
But why wouldn’t you want FSU in the SEC? That would only fuel the rivalry that much more. Look at Auburn and Alabama, one of the biggest rivalries in all sports. You don’t want that? In my opinion, bring on the competition!
From the last round of conference expansion talks, I heard something on a sports talk radio show, and they mentioned that because of certain legislature in place in the state of Va., if by chance Va. Tech were to entertain thoughts of moving to another conference, that conference would also have to be willing to accept the Va. Caviliers as well. Basically that means it would have to be a package deal. Who would want the Cavs in the SEC?
Just my opinion, add A&M and try for Mizzou. Then go after the FSU Crimenoles, then try to bring GT back into the fold.
Teams we should add are:
1.) Virginia Tech
2.) Florida State
3.) Texas A&M
4.) North Carolina (For Basketball Purposes)
Add FSU, GT, Clemson, and Texas A&M. The first three would make 3 rivalry games count toward conference standings. Put FSU and A&M in the West and GT and Clemson in the East. You keep everything except A&M in the TRUE SOUTH.
A&M and Arkansas is also a rivalry.
A&M, and the state of Texas, is in the South. Texas is one of the “cotton states” and was one of the original 7 Confederate states. East and Southeast Texas are as southern as any area.
Interesting… Good read
Why is everyone so hyped up on Virginia Tech? What have they ever done? The school has only one (1) national champtionship, and that’s in bass fishing. They are overrated and not a powerhouse in any sport. There is no reason to think VT will improve by joining the SEC.
Couldn’t agree more. I’ve been saying for years that Virginia tech is the most overrated college football program in the country in the last decade. I’m so sick of hearing about Beamer ball. Beamer ball sucks. Va tech dominates a crappy ACC.
Now with that said it isn’t a bad addition since it’s a new market and at least a decent program. Who else would you take from the ACC?
No one. I’m opposed to expansion. It will probably happen sooner or later, but I like the SEC as it is now and see no reason for expansion.
I like the SEC as it is as well, but if there are changes (and I think they are inevitable) we will get used to the changes. I trust they will be for the better.
Jon, I suspect that you’re right and the SEC will probably pick up a couple more teams sometime in the next five years. I actually liked it when Arkansas and SC were added back in ’91 because Alabama-Arkansas actually has some history behind it. I’ll get accustomed to an expanded conference, but until it comes, I’m opposed.
And when expansion occurs make damn sure that it stays a Southeaster Conf. The only state that should be raided is Texas. Keep those backwood yanks(VT) out of the conversation. If anyone is added it should be, and in this order, Florida State, A&M, Clemson, GT. Three of those teams already come from SEC states and Texas is as southern as Ga, Alabam, Louisianna and Tennesse and they’re all more southern than Florida.
Correction to #5, Florida State did NOT win that National Championship. Go VOLS.
Southern – FSU won in ’99 and the Vols beat FSU in ’98.
EPIC FAIL…..and you call yourself a Vols fan?
I am first & foremost an LSU fan. Geaux Tigers! Beyond that, I am a fan of the SEC, especially SEC football.
I have no problem with expanding the SEC. But I don’t feel that just any team should be extended an invitation, even if they fit “THE PROFILE”!
My solution: 2 – 3 year probationary period for all expansion schools. After probationary period, a vote on who stays & who goes. The SEC is no place for the weak.
One of the first things I was told when I arrived in the oilfield should apply to new teams:
“Can’t get it, can’t stay!”
If the Big 12 (10) were to fold the obvious selections for the SEC would be A&M, Ok, OKState, and Texas. The addition of these teams would put the SEC way above any conference in the Country. These additions would likely shift Alabama, Auburn, Miss, and MissState to the East Division and the 4 new additions would play in the West. This would add to balance for the two divisions and would preserve the Tx / A&M, Ok / TX, and OK / TX rivalry s on a yearly basis. If the SEC could pick off Ok and A&M, Texas would surely follow. OklaState would be the wildcard selection.
Totally agree Bosshog. As an Aggie, I would like to see this happen also. As you know, we have a long standing rivalry with Arkansas and LSU, who A&M has played more than any other non-Big 12 opponent (50 times). This would make for a great SEC West.
i really dont want anyone from the ACC, our conference is a powerhouse now and adding weak yankee teams will just dilute it. plus i’ll lose one of my favorite hobbies in ragging on the ACC