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Remaining BCS scenarios for the SEC

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Heading into the final week of the season, five teams in the SEC remain with BCS aspirations still alive. Of course, there is a maximum of two teams that can play in the BCS from any one conference. So, the winner of the SEC Championship will likely play for the national championship (assuming Alabama and Georgia both take care of business this week). It will make for a wild finish in the BCS, and it is absolutely delivering in 2012.

Here are the remaining scenarios likely to play out:

Alabama

Likely Scenario: BCS National Championship
Best Case Scenario: BCS National Championship
Worst Case Scenario: Capital One Bowl
What If: Even with a loss against Georgia in Atlanta, Alabama could still become the SEC’s second team in the BCS as an at-large selection, assuming they beat Auburn Saturday. Florida would need to lose to Florida State in order for that to happen. That would mean that Georgia plays in the Sugar Bowl as the automatic bid or the national championship, with Bama likely playing in the Fiesta Bowl as the at-large selection from the SEC. If Bama loses Saturday, they won’t win the SEC West or play in the BCS.

Florida

Likely Scenario: Outback Bowl
Best Case Scenario: BCS National Championship
Worst Case Scenario: Outback Bowl
What If: If Florida beats #10 Florida State (Gators are the underdog), Florida would likely be the second team in the SEC chosen as an at-large bid. That would mean that Alabama or Georgia would play for the national championship and the Gators would slide into the Sugar Bowl with only one loss and the best resume in all of college football. Also, if Notre Dame loses to USC, Florida could have a shot to play for the national championship against either Georgia or Alabama, assuming Oregon doesn’t jump the Gators in the BCS. You want to talk about SEC fatigue? You’d certainly have that once more, as two SEC teams could play for it all. Georgia or Alabama could face Florida for the national championship. However, a loss to FSU, and the Gators would likely play in the Outback Bowl.

Georgia

Likely Scenario: Capital One Bowl
Best Case Scenario: BCS National Championship
Worst Case Scenario: Outback Bowl
What If: If Georgia beats Tech and then Alabama, they will roll right into the national championship against Notre Dame, Florida or Oregon. If Georgia loses to Alabama (will be underdogs), they will likely be destined for the Capital One Bowl. LSU, Georgia, Texas A&M and Florida all could finish with two losses and leave the Sugar Bowl with a decision to make as to who the other at-large team will be. It will be chaos before it’s over, because how can the SEC East Champion who won their division get the shaft and not play in a BCS bowl game? It’s certainly a question worth asking.

LSU

Likely Scenario: BCS at-large selection
Best Case Scenario: BCS at-large selection
Worst Case Scenario: Cotton Bowl
What If: If LSU beats Arkansas and the Gators lose to FSU, all of Florida, Texas A&M, the loser of the SEC Championship and the Tigers could all finish with two losses. And with LSU being the hometown team in New Orleans, it would be likely they get the nod over other two-loss teams, regardless of other teams that finish ranked ahead of them. If LSU loses to Arkansas, they would likely drop to the Cotton Bowl as a three-loss team. LSU could be sitting in the catbird’s seat as far as the BCS is concerned.

Texas A&M

Likely Scenario: Cotton Bowl
Best Case Scenario: BCS at-large selection
Worst Case Scenario: Chick-fil-A Bowl
What If: If the Aggies win out and notch a 10-win season, they would be a sexy pick for the BCS. However, in order for that scenario to play out, Alabama would need to beat Georgia in the SEC Championship and likely all of Florida, LSU and South Carolina would have to lose again. Texas A&M has the slimmest chance for a BCS bowl of the above teams and need help to get there. But I know the Aggies want a piece of the Longhorns in the Cotton Bowl anyway. It would be a magical date down in Arlington. I selfishly want that to happen.

There is just too much that has to happen for South Carolina to jump into the BCS conversation.  LSU, Florida, Texas A&M and Georgia would have to lose for there to be any consideration at all.

There literally could be six SEC teams – the above five teams and South Carolina – to finish with 10 wins or more. It’s been an amazing run in 2012, and I just hope all teams finish strong and flex their SEC muscle.

Photo Credit: John David Mercer-US PRESSWIRE





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Comments 6

  1. JakeT
    Commented : 1 year ago

    Dawgs for BCSNCG

  2. DawgMan
    Commented : 1 year ago

    Jon, in a previous article it sounded like you were actually thinking UGA might be able to pull off the “upset” and that people were overlooking the Dawgs: I think it was the power ranking article. But now it seems that Alabama is likely to go to the national championship and the dogs to the Capital One Bowl…? Dawgs fans out there are going to riot

    • Let’s go ahead and lay it out there: Alabama will be big favorites. The likeliest scenario is that Alabama will win the SEC Championship and furthermore put them in the national championship. Anything is possible, and Georgia has a great chance at upsetting the Crimson Tide. No doubt about it. I’m not saying they will or they want, but the likeliest of scenarios has LSU, Georgia, Florida and Texas A&M all with two losses. We’ll see how it plays out. No doubt it could go either way. Please don’t riot! :)

  3. DawgMan
    Commented : 1 year ago

    And how come even if Bama loses to Georgia they will likely still play in the Sugar Bowl? But not the same for Georgia if we lose? Don’t understand that

    • Unfortunately, the later you lose in the season the worse it is. That’s just the reality of college football. It’s better to lose earlier, and with LSU being more of the “home team” in New Orleans, they would likely get the nod. But if UGA plays Bama very close, no doubt the Dawgs deserve a shot at a BCS bowl. There are many different scenarios that could play out. I tried to touch on them all.