Breaking down SEC’s bowl opportunities in week 11


There are endless opportunities for the SEC in how the season will actually play out, and as you would expect, there are numerous scenarios for the SEC in bowl games as well.

Obviously, Kansas State, Oregon and Notre Dame are sandwiched in between five SEC teams in the top 10 at #2, #3 and #4.

There is a distinct possibility that if the SEC Champion only plays in the Sugar Bowl and not the national championship, the second SEC team would get an at-large invitation to either the Fiesta Bowl or the Rose Bowl.

Let’s go over the most realistic opportunities moving forward:

BCS National Championship – BCS #1 vs. BCS #2

Most Likely: Alabama Crimson Tide

  • Alabama and Georgia are the only two teams in the mix.
  • Alabama just has to win out, and they will get the national championship berth. Even with one loss this weekend to Texas A&M, there still could be a possibility to get back into the national championship, but KSU, Oregon and Notre Dame would all have to lose.
  • Georgia would have to beat Alabama in the SEC Championship to even have a shot at the national championship, and they would need help with other teams in front of them losing in the next three weeks. It’s unlikely but certainly doable.

Sugar Bowl – BCS SEC Champ vs. BCS At Large

Most Likely: Florida Gators

  • Alabama, Georgia, Florida and LSU remain in the mix.
  • The winner of Alabama-Georgia will automatically get in the Sugar Bowl bid.
  • Alabama would have to lose a game and beat Georgia in the SEC Championship, eliminating themselves from the national championship.
  • Georgia would clinch Sugar Bowl berth with an SEC Championship win. A close loss still keeps them in the discussion, but a blowout loss looks bad so late.
  • Florida likely gets in the Sugar Bowl by winning out and having Georgia lose a blowout to Alabama. Florida would be the highest-ranked team not named Alabama in the SEC. But getting by Florida State will be the key.
  • LSU may have the best opportunity outside of Florida and Georgia to get in simply because they are the home team. With a Florida loss and a Georgia loss, LSU then becomes the likely choice for the Sugar Bowl.

Capital One Bowl – Big Ten #2 vs. SEC #2

Most Likely: Georgia Bulldogs

  • Florida and Georgia are the top two teams vying for Capital One Bowl.
  • Georgia will likely lose to Alabama, and Florida would have to beat FSU for Georgia to fall to the Capital One Bowl.
  • Florida falls to the Capital One Bowl with a Georgia victory in the SEC Championship or a loss to Florida State.
  • LSU will either likely end up in the Sugar Bowl or Cotton Bowl.

AT&T Cotton Bowl – Big 12 #2 vs. SEC #3-4

Most Likely: LSU Tigers

  • Texas A&M and LSU are the main two teams in the mix here.
  • The likely opponent will be Texas. And the Cotton Bowl will push for LSU if they do not get in the Sugar Bowl.
  • Texas A&M can lose to only Alabama in their last three games to have a shot of playing Texas in Cotton Bowl.

Outback Bowl – Big Ten #3 vs. SEC

Most Likely: South Carolina

  • South Carolina and Texas A&M are the main two in the mix.
  • No matter whether South Carolina wins out, the likely destination will not be the Sugar Bowl or the Capital One Bowl.
  • Texas A&M is unlikely to beat Alabama, thus dropping them to three total losses.

Chick-fil-A Bowl – ACC #2 vs. SEC #5

Most Likely: Texas A&M

  • Texas A&M and South Carolina are the main two in the mix.
  • Aggies will likely lose to Alabama dropping them to three losses for the regular season but should finish 9-3 and play in the Chick-fil-A Bowl. An upset this weekend would shake everything up.

Gator Bowl – CUSA#1 vs. Big East #5 or SEC #8-9

Most Likely: Mississippi State

  • Mississippi State seems like the logical choice for the Gator Bowl and should finish 9-3 or 8-4.

Music City Bowl – ACC #6 vs. SEC #7

Most Likely: Tennessee

  • Vanderbilt and Tennessee remain the main two in the mix.
  • The winner of the head-to-head between Vandy and Tennessee will likely determine which two of these teams goes to the Music City Bowl.

BBVA Compass Bowl – Big East #5/CUSA vs. SEC #8-9

Most Likely: Vanderbilt

  • Vanderbilt, Tennessee and Ole Miss are the three in the mix.
  • The loser of the head-to-head between Vandy and Tennessee will likely determine which one of these two teams plays in the Compass Bowl.
  • The winner of the Ole Miss-Vandy game Saturday could determine the difference between the Compass Bowl and the Liberty Bowl.

Liberty Bowl – CUSA#1 vs. Big East #5 vs. SEC #8-9

Most Likely: Ole Miss

  • Ole Miss and Vanderbilt are the main two teams in the mix.
  • The winner of the Ole Miss-Vandy game Saturday could determine the difference between the Compass Bowl and the Liberty Bowl.

Independence Bowl – SEC vs. ACC #7

Most Likely: No SEC team will make this bowl.

  • Missouri or Arkansas could fill this spot if either makes it to six wins. I don’t think that happens.

Again, these are the likeliest of scenarios that will play out. Of course, anything can change any Saturday. We’ll check in on these scenarios every week until the bowls are finalized.

Photo Credit: Marvin Gentry-US PRESSWIRE



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  • I hate the fact getting to the Conference Champ game is seen as a negative. UGA will have beaten Florida which beat LSU and Carolina. Yes, an ugly loss in Columbia doesn’t help the resume but a potential 11-2 UGA team with it’s only losses to at the time to #6 Cocks and #1 Tide is a pretty strong year.

    • Very strong. It will be a close race between UGA, LSU and FL for that Sugar Bowl spot.

      • Article makes it seem that that UGA will get blown out by Bama! After the way Bama played LSU amd the way the Dawgs have been playing lately, not sure it will happen the way we think. Could easily see UGA pulling out a close W. What say you, Jon?

        • And that’s exactly how we want it Dawgman…I hope Bama is favored by 10+. the bigger the upset..the better! Sic Em!

        • I didn’t mean it that way, DawgMan. I think a close game probably projects better for Georgia. UGA could lose by 21 and still get in the Sugar Bowl. I could be way off, but that’s kind of how I look at right now.

  • Cotton Bowl is a lock to have Texas vs Texas AM match up…….

  • I know there is a lot that needs to happen, but Florida could still play in the National Championship by winning out, Bama winning out, USC beating ND, Ore St or Stan beating Ore, and TCU or Texas beating K St.

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