SEC Week 10 Predictions

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Week 10 brings Florida-Georgia and Tennessee-Missouri, two games that will help shape the SEC East race. Auburn and South Carolina will try to stay on top against lesser conference opponents.

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Kevin and I both finished 4-3 ATS last week. I still hold the overall lead at 47-29 ATS and 63-13 overall, while Kevin is right on my heels at 42-34 ATS and 60-16 overall.

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Let’s get it on…

Mississippi State at #14 South Carolina (-13)

Jon: This should be a better game than what most think. South Carolina is coming off an emotional victory, and it’s a noon game in Columbia. The Gamecocks play well at home, but I expect MSU to play Carolina tough. Gamecocks win but MSU covers. South Carolina 31, Mississippi State 20

Kevin: I agree. South Carolina doesn’t play out teams not named Arkansas right now. I like Carolina in a close game. South Carolina 24, Mississippi State 21.

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Georgia (-2.5) at Florida

Jon: South Carolina’s win over Mizzou made this game much more interesting than, say, a week ago. But the simple fact that Michael Bennett and Todd Gurley return on offense could be the difference. I like Georgia to win their third straight and cover. Bulldogs 20, Florida 16

Kevin: Look for Georgia’s defense to look like the best defense in the country against Florida’s offense. Aaron Murray doesn’t really play well against Florida, but they have Todd Gurley back. I like Georgia to win. Georgia 27, Florida 17.

Related: Previewing the Florida-Georgia game 2013

#11 Auburn (-8.5) at Arkansas

Jon: Why does this seem like the biggest lock in week 10? It seems too obvious. Auburn shouldn’t take Arkansas lightly, but the Hogs have been outscored 104-7 in the last two games. The Tigers’ running game gets going early. Auburn 41, Arkansas 18

Kevin: Auburn rolls with that run game! Auburn 37, Arkansas 21

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Tennessee at #9 Missouri (-11.5)

Jon: Tennessee is starting a freshman QB on the road against the team that lost a heartbreaker a week ago. The Tigers are still averaging over 40 points per game, and the Vols have struggled on the road. Missouri 35, Tennessee 17

Kevin: I’m with Jon on a Mizzou rebound this week. Tennessee’s QB will have a hard time against that Mizzou defensive front. With that said, I think we see a fiesty Tennessee team as well after getting pummeled against Alabama. I’m going with a Missouri win, but a closer game than what the spread predicts. Mizzou 28, Tennessee 21.

Alabama State at Kentucky (Pick ‘em)

Jon: Alabama State is 6-2, and Kentucky can’t just show up against anyone and win. But the Cats finally get back in the win column. Kentucky 45, Alabama State 24

Kevin: I think Kentucky wins, but not by as large a margin as Jon predicts. Kentucky 28, Alabama State 18.

UTEP at #12 Texas A&M (-46)

Jon: UTEP is a bad football team, but 46 points is a huge spread. I’ve been taking teams not to cover on bigger spreads and been getting burned. Texas A&M 59, UTEP 13

Kevin: Manziel and Evans freak show continues and the Aggies roll. Texas A&M 51, UTEP 10.

Photo Credit: Rob Foldy-USA TODAY Sports

COMMENTS

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  • Jon did you get that number right?? Auburn only -8.5 at Arkansas? That’s insane.

    • Yeah. Line has actually moved to Auburn (-8). Maybe they’re counting on Nick Marshall not playing. I dunno. I was puzzled, too.

    • Playing on the road in the SEC is tough. At least this week, I can say with supreme confidence that Ole Miss will not lose.

    • I think there’s the fear that Arkansas has nothing left to lose, so all the stops will be pulled out. Beilma may actually channel Les Miles and go for it with a run on 4th and 25, fake special teams plays, or run some trick plays. Arkansas is also the team that has yet to punch their ticket on the SEC upset train this season. I do not see them beating Auburn, but I think with a nothing left to lose attitude, they keep it close, maybe even too close. And Auburn may be looking at Arkansas like a UTEP, and if they sleep on them, they may get upset.

  • Boy, I sure hope you guys are right. I mean, after both picking UGA over Mizzou and Vandy, you gotta get 1 out of 3 right, at least, don’t you?

  • Hey Jon and Kevin, Thanks for still backing Mizzou! LOL By the way, I think Mizzou is really, really Pi$$ed about the loss last Saturday. I truly expect them to do their best to throttle the next opponent…in a way they kind of need to for style points. If it does turn out to be that way, I don’t see Pinkel really running up the score…it just isn’t his style.

  • Didn’t both you guys pick south carolina to cover against Tennessee. The only reason missouri has the record they do is because they kept playing teams after Tennessee knocked out all their skill position players. missouri loses for the second straight week.

    • Bob is calling the Tennessee upset over MIZ. Should be a great game.

    • Hey Tellico_bob… Buzzzzzz, Wrong answer; however, we have wonderful parting gifts for you. There will not be an upset at Faurot field “this” week. By 10:00 p.m. Saturday night, the Vols will be 4-5…(1-4 in the SEC) and likely drop to 6th place in the East if Vandy happens to beat Florida.

    • Bob, are you really going to use South Carolina’s most lethargic offensive game of the season as your basis for why the Vols will upset Mizzou in their own stadium? Keep in mind even with how poorly our offense played in Neyland it was one lucky catch that set up the game-winning kick. Luck won’t be enough against an angry Mizzou on their turf.

  • I sadly agree with the assessment of this weekend’s game in Columbia. For some reason, we seem to look good at everyone’s homecoming but our own, and we also have a nasty habit of overlooking teams like MSU, especially when our next contest is against someone as critical as the Gators. This game has “trap” written all over it.

  • Wow…an idiot? Well I won’t attempt to stoop to the low level of calling one names; but know that I enjoy and follow two SEC teams closely. ..one beat Tennessee hansdily last weekend and the other will handle them this weekend. Now get off of your moms computer before she geta home and sees you using it without her permission.

    • Sorry…this is in reply to Tellico_bob…who felt it necessary to call me an idiot.

    • Real fans are fans of one team only. I stand by the fact that people who cheer for the red team are idiots. My mom has been dead for twenty years.

    • Tellico_bob, granted, maybe I shouldn’t have brought your mom into this but likewise there truly isn’t a reason to call someone you don’t even know an idiot. Suffice it to say, I have always been a Mizzou fan from the Big-8 days. I’ve been an Alabama fan since they were ever so kind enough to give my daughter an academic full ride. Just because they are in the same conference now doesn’t mean I can’t cheer them both on. That is what someone does who is an overall fan of college football. Good luck on Saturday. I still think Mizzou will win…and I do mean win by a wide margin.

    • While I agree with Tellico Bob that there is a chance that Tennessee plays their hearts out this week and may even pulls off the win, anyone who is just going to refer to someone as an idiot because they cheer for “The Red Team” is an undignified presence on a board which has, as far as I have seen, fostered healthy and friendly debate around our common love of College Football and the SEC. I’m not on here hate spamming the Auburn fans or rubbing in the win on the Tennessee fans. We talk about how far Butch Jones has brought the Vols, and he really has, that South Carolina game proved that, and the wonderful things Malzahn has done with an Auburn team that was abysmal last season. Yes, we toss jabs about upsets and rivalries, it’s the nature of the game, but that’s just a ridiculous insinuation. As an alumni, why wouldn’t I cheer for Alabama? My student tickets had me watching the Shula years, didn’t enjoy them any less, and it didn’t turn me away. The SEC is cyclical. One day Florida will find a way to be back on top. One day Tennessee will find another Peyton Manning. Hell, one day Jenn Beilma’s Twitter posts won’t be so obnoxious because her husband’s team will actually be over .500. Advance the conversation, don’t stifle it with ridiculousness.

  • I keep saying I don’t expect any upsets this week, but this past three weeks has been crazy. I do like Florida over Georgia, but not by much. Mississippi State will play South Carolina close, but Scar will pull away in the 4th quarter.

  • Hey Jon, how’s this for a quote? I read this re: the MU/UT preview on a website. “After last week’s excruciating loss, Mizzou needs a sacrifice to appease the SEC Gods. Do we have any Volunteers? “

    • Nice ZouTide! Tennessee is a team Mizzou has to put away if they have a lead in the 3rd quarter. South Carolina didn’t do that; Mizzou will have to.

    • I totally agree. I really don’t think I am being a “mizzou” fan in this belief here but I really, really think the Defense takes that loss worse than the offense. UT’s loss to Alabama wasn’t as painful to them as the Mizzou loss to SoCar was. That being said, I think the defense will do their best to keep UT from scoring at all. Will they be successful? That I can not answer.

      • That’s a very witty headline. And I agree, UT knew the loss was coming. South Carolina and Mizzou were, by all rights, a fairly even match up, but losing their undefeated season in a heartbreaking fashion like they did does leave them with something to prove. I think the scrappiness of Tennessee is being underestimated, even with the rookie taking the snaps this week. Maybe I just like Tennessee a little more because Butch Jones isn’t darting up and down the sidelines in Orange Pants, but UT is going to score. I don’t know if they can win, but they are definitely going to try. If Mizzou can avoid the injury plague that Tennessee tends to bring with them (Ask UGA, was it 5 major players that went down in that one?), they should avoid another one in the loss column. At this point, I think you and I are both excited to see this Mizzou team meet Bama in December, I just wouldn’t count on Tennessee to go away so easily.

      • I believe Mizzou was out coached in the fourth qtr. Missouri this season when having a lead tends to go into a prevent (The long bomb) defense and lets receiver make his turn at the first down marker all the while the DB being soft about 3-4 yards behind the reception. When this happens a team will put together 6 first downs. Mizzou need to pressure the qb from the start to the end and not worry about appearing to run up the score. Saw that in the Vanderbilt game. Their defense gave up way to many points late in the game. If Mizzou plays from start to finish I believe they will win this game. Michael Sams should give the redshirt QB a fitting welcome to the ZOU.

        • @Sev, “I believe Mizzou was out coached in the fourth qtr.” I haven’t talked to a Mizzou yet to disagree with this.

  • I’ll be at the Missouri v Tennessee game. Butch will attack with the screen pass because everyone else got some yards that way. Missouri will go back to more looks on defense and more balance in point of attack on offense. I think both of these teams are still improving and a long way from peak. It will be a great game BUT, how will it ever top the most under-rated game in the SEC last year, Missouri’s 4OT win at Tennessee. Wow, what a game.

  • Vols win larger than expected 31-17………