SEC Week 5 predictions

NCAA: OCT 17 Arkansas at Florida

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The SEC turns the page from one of the worst weekends in the SEC to one of the most anticipated weekends. LSU-Georgia and Alabama-Ole Miss highlight the weekend, but Texas A&M-Arkansas’ rivalry will add a little spice.

Related: 5 biggest takeaways from 2013

I had a good week last week and have finally overtaken Kevin. I’m 25-14 ATS and 37-5 overall, while Kevin is 22-17 ATS and 36-6 overall.

Related: SEC power rankings 

On to week five we go…

#12 South Carolina (-7) at UCF

Jon: The Gamecocks better show up for the noon game or UCF will steal one at home. UCF is no pushover, and they’re better than when Missouri beat them last year. Carolina wins and covers. South Carolina 28, UCF 20

Kevin: I think the Gamecocks travel to Orlando and remind UCF where they stand. South Carolina doesn’t exactly look flashy, but they win this game fairly easily and also cover. South Carolina 28, UCF 14.

Related: South Carolina at UCF preview

South Alabama at Tennessee (-20)

Jon: South Alabama beat WKU, who Tennessee thumped. So, the Vols aren’t good enough to just show up. But I like Tennessee here to win and cover. Tennessee 45, South Alabama 20

Kevin: The Vols move past the ugly loss to Florida and beat a very average South Alabama team by several touchdowns. Tennessee 38, South Alabama 14

#6 LSU at #9 Georgia (-3)

Jon: One of the three biggest games of the season, I would have thought Georgia would open as a one-point favorite. The biggest question mark in this game is Georgia’s defense, and whether they can stop LSU’s offense. LSU goes ‘Tween the Hedges and gets a win. LSU 38, Georgia 31

Kevin: I’m a bit surprised by the three point spread as well, but I’m not surprised Georgia is a favorite. I’m going with the Dawgs here. Georgia has played two very tough teams thus far this season, and LSU, well, hasn’t. I think we’re buying in to LSU a little too hard where Georgia is battle tested and gets this game at home. I like Georgia to pull out a close one. Georgia 34, LSU 33.

Related: LSU at Georgia preview

#21 Ole Miss at #1 Alabama (-16.5)

Jon: I’m in the minority thinking Ole Miss gives Alabama a good game and covers the spread, but it all comes back to Bo Wallace’s ability to be the difference-maker. Is he ready to take that step? Alabama 35, Ole Miss 21

Kevin: Ole Miss is going in the right direction, but I think we overreact too much week-to-week. I think Alabama comes out and reminds us that while they may have holes this year, they’re still the cream of the crop in the SEC. I like them to win and pull ahead late in the game to cover the spread. Alabama 38, Ole Miss 21.

Related: Ole Miss at Alabama preview

#19 Florida (-13) at Kentucky

Jon: We’ll see how Tyler Murphy handles his first start and road start, and without DT Dominique Easley, could Kentucky make this a football game. You better believe it. But I like Florida to win and cover. Florida 28, Kentucky 13

Kevin: Florida handles Kentucky like usual. Tyler Murphy will have a few mishaps, but overall will do what he needs to do. Kentucky’s offense struggles against Florida’s defense. Florida 24, Kentucky 10.

Arkansas State at Missouri (-21)

Jon: I love the way Missouri is playing through four weeks, and they are a real player in the East. I like the Tigers to win and cover. Missouri 41, Arkansas State 20

Kevin: Mizzou is going for yet another win, and they’ll get it. I don’t have them covering, however. Missouri 38, Arkansas State 21.

UAB at Vanderbilt (-20)

Jon: Vanderbilt’s offense has to get going quicker than normal, and I think they jump out to a big lead and play better than the last few weeks. Vanderbilt 38, UAB 17

Kevin: I agree and believe that Vanderbilt will stomp UAB. Vandy needs a game like this to fix a few things and I think they put it together. Vanderbilt 41, UAB 13.

#10 Texas A&M (-13) at Arkansas
Note: Game line taken off the board due to the injury of QB Brandon Allen. So, we made our own.

Jon: I think Texas A&M is a two-touchdown better team right now. I just don’t have confidence Arkansas can score enough to cover the 13 points. Texas A&M 41, Arkansas 27.

Kevin: Aggies light it up against Arkansas while of course giving up some points. Aggies get the win, but give up too many points in the second half to cover the spread. Texas A&M 45, Arkansas 38.

COMMENTS

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  • Kevin, Thank you for your comment on UGA/LSU prediction. First time all week, I have heard anybody say anything about the Dawgs being tested, and only losing by 3 to a good Clemson team in a tough environment.

    • I think Jon is overestimating LSU’s defense…. TCU put up 28? I think? And Jon how about the LSU and how will they stop Gurley article? No I’m just kidding but to be honest its obvious Gurley and the Dawgs have played better defenses… right?

  • hmm… I don’t know….. Granted that Tennessee thumped WKU vs South Alabama just beating them, Tennessee cannot sleep upon this SOAL team. They’re coming in fresh off a by week and have a ton of momentum on their side after upsetting WKU. The USA offense has been extremely good these past two games, even considering their opponents and their defense comes up big when it counts. I wonder how Tenneessee will counter the dual threat of Ross and Brandon at QB. It’ll be an interesting game and one that is worth watching.

    That being said. I have to say that I gotta take the DAWGS over LSU…. I just don’t think LSU is tested enough yet. They’re a young time and I think that inexperience bites them at Sanford Stadium. Close game, but experience helps the Dawgs pull it out. Will definitely be an awesome game.

    Texas A&M takes care of Arkansas easily.

    Florida takes care of Kentucky no problem. I think Kentucky has trouble with that Florida defense. (And for crying out loud, they lost to WKU!)

  • I looked at the Arkansas State record last year and this year. Yes the program has done well but I think they would loose a head-to-head with Toledo or Indiana either one. What will Missouri be trying to accomplish besides getting to 4-0? If I were the coach, I would be trying to get Maty Mauk in the game and I would be trying to shore up the running game blocking. On defense I would be trying to seal some holes in coverage and I would be working on cutting down on the occasional yards allowed per play over 2-3 yards. This game will be a much bigger margin than Las Vegas thinks. Missouri’s rushing yardage will be sick, the passing yardage will be sick. On aTm, look, Manziel is not the first good quarterback they have had. In 2011 they were scoring 45 points a game in Big 12 play, it’s just that their opponents were scoring 46 points a game, Including Missouri’s Franklins. Don’t be shocked if Franklin out-performs aTm in that game (it is a rivalry)

  • I hope you win Jon even though I like Kevin too. I don’t know if covering the spread counts in your competition, but almost never go with Mizzou to cover. Pinkel has never been one to stand on his opponents neck. besides our o-line has hardly played any 2s. I hope they get some work in this week before conference play starts.

    • Agree. Tigers should have scored a TD at end of Toledo game and gave up a gimme to Indiana in last minute on Saturday. Frankly, I think those stats add up and wish Pinkel wouldn’t be so “polite.” I remember when we scored 69 vs. Nevada a few years ago and he was horrified.

  • Mizzou REALLY needs to rethink it’s scheduling philosophy……spread out the SEC gauntlet a bit.

    • We’ll see, cause this is the same format we’ve always used for years…. an extended fall camp w lolli pop games in route to league play. This is essential for developing our timing and rhythm on offense. Last year game 2 was Georgia, and trust me, we never found rhythm all year, never had a back to back win all season. I like this years schedule, for a few reasons… mainly confidence and rhythm. It may be a blessing for us, considering the October games are the toughest. We should be playing some of our best football then and most important we hope to be fairly healthy. I’d rather play GA, SC and FL fresh off our non-conference slate, rather than later in the year. But then again I’m curious if Slive will let the southerners come up north in november to play in the cold. So far no. ( A&M don’t count, they’re used to it.)

      • To be accurate, Mizzou has always played at least one team from a BCS conference, whereas so many in Big Xii land especially (Texas Tech, ku, etc). rarely do). Last year, Mizzou played two (Syracuse and Ariz State). And Mizzou thumped Illinois like a drum for years,and believe it or not, they are a BSC conference school, as is Indiana. Meanwhile, last year Mizzou won at Central Florida, which tied for their conference title, won a bowl and finished 10-3. Of course, they are only considered good now that S Carolina is about to face them Right…. Plus, Mizzou’s scheduling dates are still somewhat affected by the sudden conference switch AND the conference schedules that aren’t planned ahead much. Agree that it Florida should play Mizzou in Columbia in November. THAT would be interesting.

  • “I think we’re buying in to LSU a little too hard where Georgia is battle tested and gets this game at home.” -This is a purely rational, real-world statement about how things actually, really are.

    Glad to see someone is not using wishful thinking and starry eyes, focused on a team who’s only beat comparatively fluff opponents so far, as their rationale for the outcome of this game. Dawgs have been on the front lines, slugging it, twice already, and dominating both games Offensively and Defensively (go back and look at the numbers). The only weak spot has been Special Teams, which, if things aren’t improved, could be the deciding factor tomorrow, but LSU will NOT have better O performance OR D performance than Georgia tomorrow. THAT is a sane, well-backed-up bet. Georgia’s already been through the mill in the upper tier, two weeks in a row. LSU’s been hanging back at the camps so far in this war. We really won’t know how good LSU is (or is NOT), until tomorrow.

  • I think LSU has the edge against UGA. LSU has a better defense and they have been more consistent then UGA. UGA will win if they can stay consistent throughout the whole game which they seem to struggle doing. Aaron Murray also seems to throw stupid interceptions, had one last week and should have had 3 to north texas as 2 were dropped. Aaron Murray seems to fold under good defenses, will he improve? I see Todd Gurley bailing UGA out of some messes early on in the game. LSU 38, UGA 24.

    South Carolina only gets 3 points against UCF? UCF is one of those darkhorse unranked teams which I can see them upsetting South carolina, but not this time. USC 42, UCF 17.

    South Alabama vs Tennessee. I see the point spread being met if they keep Worley in the game for Tennessee. The backup did horrible last week against the Gators. Altough the Gators have one of the best defenses in the league, they also probably have one of the worst offenses. I see them covering the spread with Worley in the game. Tennessee 48, South Alabama 14.

    Ole Miss vs Alabama. Do I smell an upset? Maybe so… With Robert K. on defense and Bo Wallace throwing the football. Possibly COULD be an upset, but I don’t see it happening. Alabama just has too good of talent behind their defense. Especially Vinnie Sunseri, he has already had a HUGE defensive year so far. I think the defense gives Ole Miss trouble. As for the Alabama offense…. Yeah…. thats another story. Alabama 38, Ole Miss 21

    Florida vs Kentucky. -13 on point spread are you serious? I know the Gators offense is nothing to be talking about. But even last year they didnt have a great offense at all maybe mediocre and they still shut out Kentucky 38 to 0 a team that Georgia struggled to beat last year. Florida still has the defense even without Dominique Easley out for the rest of the year. Plus, the backup quarterback who is now start Tyler Murphy seems to be more poised and knowledgable about the game and seems to know when to throw it away and slide and can even pass the ball on target, instead of taking sacks and making poor judgement calls like Driskel. I see Tyler Murphy really making a statement this game. I pick Florida over Kentucky 41 to 10.

    Arkansas State vs Missouri, I see this game covering the spread. Missouri has great talent in the backfield but needs a solid QB to help this talent out. I still say the offensive attack against Arkansas will be just enough to cover the spread. Missouri 28, Arknasas State 7.

    UAB vs Vanderbilt. I think Vandy will more than cover the spread this game. They are a school thats up on the rise and can be a suprising team in some games. They’ve had a little shaky year thus far but I see them getting it done. Vanderbilt 42 UAB 10.

    Texas A&M vs Arkansas, I definitely see A&M covering this spread if not more with the way Johnny Manziel is playing ball. He’s not just a lucky freshman who had a lucky year, he’s the real deal at qb. He proved that against Alabama. Texas A&M’s defense seems to be a let down to that high powered offense. Arkansas will score some points on A&M definitely, but it wont be enough to stop Johnny Manziel and the passing attack. Texas A&M 49, Arkansas 24.

  • I was under the impression that Missouri had no control over their conference schedule. and that we were lucky to have four games before conference started this year. it was the way we always did it in the big 8 and big 12. I was horrified to get Georgia in the second week last year especially with so many injuries before the season started. after reading other sites more more predicting Missouri to go 5-0 before going to Athens. I think Jon and Wolfman will remember I said before the season started. I said it first. I said it often. and our fourth conference victory well come against either Florida, Mississippi ( I’m pretty sure about this one) or possibly Texas A&M. home we have beat often lately

  • that was supposed to read whom we’ve beat often lately.

  • If we don’t goof up on special teams we take this one by two scores. UGA 38 LSU 27…The UGA D has been fairly solid against the run at times, and we’re gonna need to be tomorrow. When Mett throws we will get pressure..and he makes at least two crucial mistakes. TG3 goes for 160 and a couple of scores while Murray passes for 295 with 3 TDs and 1 INT. Artie Lynch will have a big day. GDG Sic Em!