Vegas’ SEC win totals for 2014

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This may come at no surprise, knowing the national media’s favorite to win the SEC, but Alabama is expected to win more games than any other team in the conference. Alabama has been favored in 54 straight games and may be favored in every game this season.

Related: SDS ranks 2014 SEC strength of schedules

Las Vegas sportsbook released their opening SEC win numbers, and four other SEC teams are expected to win nine games or more, and three are projected to win five or less. Alabama, South Carolina, Auburn, Georgia and LSU are all set at nine or more wins, while Tennessee, Arkansas and Kentucky are all below five wins. Vanderbilt is set at six wins, right on the cusp of a bowl game, and Texas A&M, Mississippi State and Ole Miss are set at 7.5 or under.

CG Technology was the first to post SEC over/unders for 2014:

  • Alabama: 10.5
  • South Carolina: 9.5
  • Auburn: 9.5
  • Georgia: 9
  • LSU: 9
  • Missouri: 8
  • Florida: 8
  • Ole Miss: 7.5
  • Mississippi State: 7
  • Texas A&M: 7
  • Vanderbilt: 6
  • Tennessee: 5
  • Arkansas: 4.5
  • Kentucky: 3.5

One interesting bet I’d take is Mississippi State. The Bulldogs are listed at seven for the over/under, and I see seven that I’m pretty confident about. Swing games against Auburn, Vanderbilt and Ole Miss will be the defining factor. That may be the best bet on the above opening lines.

Which over/unders are you confident about?

Photo Credit: Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports

COMMENTS

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  • Alabama: 10.5 UNDER
    South Carolina: 9.5 OVER
    Auburn: 9.5 OVER
    Georgia: 9 OVER
    LSU: 9 UNDER
    Missouri: 8 OVER
    Florida: 8 UNDER
    Ole Miss: 7.5 OVER
    Mississippi State: 7 OVER
    Texas A&M: 7 UNDER
    Vanderbilt: 6 OVER
    Tennessee: 5 5 seems right on the mark
    Arkansas: 4.5 UNDER
    Kentucky: 3.5 OVER

  • Alabama: 10.5 Under
    South Carolina: 9.5 Over
    Auburn: 9.5 Over
    Georgia: 9 Even
    LSU: 9 Under
    Missouri: 8 Over
    Florida: 8 Under
    Ole Miss: 7.5 Over
    Mississippi State: 7 Over
    Texas A&M: 7 Under
    Vanderbilt: 6 Even
    Tennessee: 5 Over
    Arkansas: 4.5 Under
    Kentucky: 3.5 Over

  • Alabama: 10.5 Under
    South Carolina: 9.5 Over (At least I sure as hell hope it is)
    Auburn: 9.5 Over
    Georgia: 9 Even
    LSU: 9 Under
    Missouri: 8 Over
    Florida: 8 Under
    Ole Miss: 7.5 Under
    Mississippi State: 7 Over
    Texas A&M: 7 Under
    Vanderbilt: 6 Even
    Tennessee: 5 5 Under (Although I’m tempted to take the over)
    Arkansas: 4.5 Under
    Kentucky: 3.5 Over

  • I would like to see Florida to win 8 games, but I see at least 5 loses. All depends on how much, Roper can fix Muschamp’s misdeeds.

  • One thing that always gets lost in these “win total” stories is that the game ‘totals’ given are never ‘equal.’
    You have to know what the money line on those OVER/UNDER pay-offs are to understand what the bookies really think. – Of course, I’m having trouble finding the lines right now, but I do have one example:
    AUBURN has a win total of 9.5 – However, the over is -120 and the under is also -120. (meaning you have to bet $120 to win $100)
    CLEMSON also has a 9.5 win total. – It’s line is Over +150, under -190.
    With just a cursory glance, you’d think Vegas believes both schools to be about equal. That’s about as far from fact as possible! They obviously believe Clemson is going to be hard-pressed to make that 9.5 win total! They’re so sure, they are offering a sizable bet for the OVER! (you bet $100 to win $150). The over is the underdog in that case! —

    To really understand these, you MUST also include the betting lines, or it’s just a misleading article that gets everyone up in arms about their totals, and not understanding what the bookies truly believe!

    • So you are saying this is a fixed line in the sand that won’t change no matter how much money gets bet on either side till second week of August?

      • I don’t think the over/under will change, but what may change depending on the amount bet per side is the payoff, or the amount that must be bet to win $100. For example, the line on Auburn will stay at 9.5, but as more people bet the over the amount may increase from -120 to -150. That means that as of now, you bet $120 to win $100, but if it changes to -150 then you have to bet $150 to win the $100. They could also adjust the under side to make it more enticing, for example making it +150 so that a $100 bet would win $150. They have a few options they can do to make either side more enticing for those looking for action that can potentially even out the sides money wise.

      • No. the lines always shift, but the opening ‘betting lines’ based on where Vegas set the win totals lets you know the bookies feelings on if a team will beat that win total or fail to meet it.
        That’s what I was trying to point out.
        Of course, if there’s suddenly huge amounts of money bet to one side versus the other, the oddsmakers move the line to adjust for that, and hopefully entice bettors to bet the other side of the line. After all, that’s how sportsbooks can reduce their risk and make their money.
        The opening line, though, informs you about how the oddsmakers feel about a team’s potential.

    • very interesting point. so Vegas is thinking Auburn will win over 9.5 and Clemson will not. When you find the lines post them for us!

  • Here’s what I found based on info from 5dimes (and another rival site):
    ALABAMA 10.5 (over -140/U +100)
    AUBURN 9.5 (O -155/U +115)
    GEORGIA 9.5 (O -120/U -120)
    MISSOURI 9.5 (O +110/ U -150)
    SOUTH CAR. 9.5 (O -140/ U +100)

    **** Right here you can see they are more confident in Georgia & SoCarolina’s 9.5 than Miz. they are basically saying MIZ will not cover the 9.5****

    FLORIDA 7.5 (O +110/U-150)
    MISSISSIPPI 7.5 (O -140/U +100)
    TEXAS AM 7.5 (O -110/U-130)
    TENNESSEE 5.5 (O -160/U +120)

    That’s all I saw for now….Sorry if your team isn’t on here…

  • Alabama: over
    USC: over
    Auburn: over
    UGA: under
    LSU: under
    Mizzou: over
    Florida: under
    Miss.: under
    Miss St: under
    TAMU: over
    Vandy: over
    Tenn: under
    Ark: under
    Ken: over