5 bold predictions for Alabama-Texas A&M
It comes down to this in the SEC West: No. 1 Alabama hosts No. 6 Texas A&M. The winner holds the inside track to Atlanta and beyond.
Not many are giving the Aggies a chance; until now. Don’t read into the comparisons of what these two teams did against Tennessee in back-to-back weeks. The Vols weren’t the same team that hosted the Tide as they were when visiting College Station. Decimated by injuries, the Vols took their inevitable beating in Tuscaloosa.
Alabama is as much as a 19-point favorite to win on Saturday. That’s too many points. Here are four bold predictions that might or might not go with the trend:
1. Alabama does not score a non-offensive touchdown: This will be the key in whether it’s a close game or simply just another roll for the Tide. Alabama has recorded 11 non-offensive touchdowns, four via the pick-six variety.
Expect Texas A&M veteran QB Trevor Knight to take particular care of the football in this game. For the most part, he’s done that this year. But Knight has shown signs of being careless with his throws at times. The graduate transfer has thrown five interceptions but also tossed the third-most passes (215) in the SEC.
In addition to a propensity for returning interceptions for touchdowns, the Tide have also taken three punts back for scores as well. They won’t add to that Saturday. Texas A&M allows an average of 5.0 yards per punt return and haven’t given up a return of more than 20 yards.
Credit: Matt Bush-USA TODAY Sports
2. The Aggies cover the large point spread: See above for how they do it. The Aggies stay close and make it a game by not allowing Alabama any “cheap” scores. If you want to compare opponents, refer to each team’s efforts against Arkansas rather than Tennessee. Texas A&M pounded the Hogs by three touchdowns. Take away a fumble return for a touchdown and a 100-yard interception return and Alabama squeaks past that same team by one score.
Not sure why or how the general public is overlooking that point, but don’t expect Alabama to simply show up and annihilate the Aggies the way they did the injury-riddled Vols at Rocky Top. Think more Ole Miss (48-43) than Tennessee (49-10).
3. Alabama will score at least as many field goals as offensive touchdowns: Texas A&M has played a bend-don’t-break defense this season and for the most part has been very successful. The goal-line stand against Arkansas turned that game around. Alabama won’t give them a similar opportunity. The Tide moves the ball up and down the field throughout the game Saturday and take the points when and where they can.
True, the Tide has struggled in the kicking game; Adam Griffith is just 8-of-12 on field goal attempts this season. This will be his breakout game. It’ll have to be; Texas A&M is second in the SEC behind Florida in opponent red-zone conversion. In 26 trips to the red zone, Aggies opposition scored just 17 times and only 11 touchdowns.
4. Jalen Hurts throws for 200-plus yards and two touchdowns: Rebounding from last week’s 143 yards and no touchdowns against Tennessee, the Alabama quarterback takes advantage of the SEC’s worst defense against the pass.
In four of seven games this season, Hurts has thrown for a pair of touchdowns and he adds another to that total Saturday. While he exploits a Texas A&M defense that has allowed a SEC-high 72 passing plays of 10-plus yards, look for him to hit a couple of big-plays for scores to playmakers Calvin Ridley and ArDarius Stewart.
5. Trevor Knight will set a career-high for passing attempts: Alabama will go all out to force the Aggies quarterback to throw the football. His run/pass option reads will be pass in most cases as Alabama, with the nation’s top defense against the run (63.86 yards per game average), will force Knight to throw it rather than run it.
Ironically, Knight’s career-high for pass attempts is 44, set against Alabama in the Sugar Bowl following the 2013 season while playing at Oklahoma. He threw for 348 yards and four touchdowns to lead the Sooners to a 45-31 victory.
