No doubt the Clemson staff has been looking at this question for weeks if not months, but how can the Tigers game-plan to bring down the Crimson Tide? Accepting the idea that past history is the best indicator of future performance, we look at Alabama’s recent losses (yes, there’s only one in the last two years), and its close calls, to determine what made those games competitive, and what Clemson might try to copy.

The losses

Ole Miss 2014 (23-17): Ole Miss knocked off Alabama on the strength of a big game from QB Bo Wallace, who passed for 251 yards and three scores without an interception. Ole Miss didn’t run well (2.4 yards per carry) but did protect Wallace, allowing only two sacks. Ole Miss did a decent job against the Tide run game (3.8 yards per carry) and cashed in some special teams mistakes, some noticeable (two missed Alabama field goals and a forced fumble on an Alabama kick return) and some more subtle (good work on their own kick returns). Also, a timely interception stopped Alabama’s last drive.

Ohio State 2014 (42-35): OSU owned Alabama in the ground game, rattling off 6.7 yards per carry and 281 rushing yards. Alabama threw three interceptions, one of which was returned for a score. Ohio State was 10 of 18 on third-down conversions and held Alabama to 2 of 13. OSU also passed for 256 yards.

Ole Miss 2015 (43-37): Again, Ole Miss threw the ball all over the field, with Chad Kelly passing for 341 yards and no interceptions. Once again, the Rebels didn’t do much on the ground (2.9 yards per carry) but threw the ball well and benefited from five Alabama turnovers (three picks, two fumbles) while committing none themselves. Again, the Rebels did a good job keeping their QB clean, allowing two sacks. The Rebels helped their case by breaking up seven passes and  picking off three.

Near misses

Arkansas 2014 (14-13): Arkansas held Bama to 227 yards of offense, including 2.1 yards per rush. Arkansas surrendered just 10 first downs and also benefited from a short missed field goal from Bama.

LSU 2014 (20-13, OT): LSU held the Tide to 315 yards of offense, including 3.7 yards per carry. Neither team passed well, as Alabama went 20 for 46 passing for 209 yards. LSU dominated time of possession, holding the ball for almost 39 minutes.

Mississippi State 2014 (25-20): The Bulldogs were rarely in this game, as they trailed 19-0. They did control the ball and ran 88 offensive plays to only 63 for Bama, which helped State rack up 282 yards in the second half and make the game close.

Tennessee 2015 (19-14): Tennessee did a good job on the Alabama rush game, limiting the Tide to 2.8 yards per carry, and held Bama to two touchdowns in five red zone opportunities. Tennessee ran the ball reasonably well (3.4 yards per carry), hit a few passes, and sacked Alabama five times. The Vols missed three field goals.

Clemson 2015 (45-40): Last time around, the Tigers passed for 405 yards, outrushed Alabama (holding them to 3.0 yards per carry) and had only one turnover. Clemson lost in part because two of their five red zone trips ended in field goals instead of touchdowns.

Ole Miss 2016 (48-43): Chad Kelly threw for 421 yards, three scores and no interceptions. Alabama had a great game on the ground, with Jalen Hurts’s dual-threat skills making the difference. Ole Miss had some special teams struggles in covering kickoffs as well.

What can Clemson learn

Well, you can try to outscore Alabama. Ohio State did it, Ole Miss did it once and nearly did it again. And, of course, Clemson almost did it last year. If you’re going that route, you’d better have a big-game QB who can throw for a ton of yards — which Clemson certainly has in Deshaun Watson. Said QBs chances are greatly helped by a superb offensive line performance — because sacks kill drives and often create turnovers. You need some other advantage — either slowing the Alabama ground game or forcing costly turnovers. And it doesn’t hurt to get some special teams breaks.

The other possibility is to slow down the game. While that worked well in 2014, it hasn’t had much livelihood since. LSU tried it this year in their 10-0 loss, but slowing the Alabama offense to a crawl isn’t something that most defenses can do. Clemson looked good last week against Ohio State, but the Buckeyes’ attack has been fairly anemic lately. The Tigers allowed 380-plus yards in six of their games. That won’t cut it against Alabama in a slow-down game.