Each week, Saturday Down South’s playoff predictor will project which four teams would make the College Football Playoff if the season ended now.

The formula takes into account Vegas national championship odds, offensive and defensive efficiency, analytics, strength of schedule, division standings and the major polls.

The team with the lowest score is the most likely to make the four-team Playoff. (You can find a longer explanation of the formula at the bottom of this post.)

Keep in mind, this is not a projection of where things will be at the end of the season. It’s a projection of where things stand if the season ended today.

Under that premise, Alabama vs. TCU and Baylor vs. Mississippi State would meet in the national semifinals. (The committee wouldn’t force matchups between teams of the same conference.)

Oregon, Ohio State and Florida State are the only other teams most likely to push into the playoff, according to our formula. While Alabama (28.0 points) has a sizable edge for the No. 1 overall spot by our formula, slots 2-7 are razor-thin. The point totals are: 52.5, 56, 59.5, 60.5, 63 and 64.5. In other words, barring a few losses, good luck, real committee.

That eight-team playoff looks real good about now.

Week 13 didn’t eliminate any teams from playoff contention, meaning 120 of the 128 FBS programs have no hope for a national championship. (Another, Marshall, also has no hope, but remains part of our rankings due to an unbeaten record.)

THE PLAYOFF TEAMS

1. Alabama

Score: 28

Last Week: No. 1

The Numbers Say: The Tide are nearly flawless — first or second in every poll imaginable and with the second-best combined scoring efficiency in the country. A loss to Ole Miss in the middle of the season is the only real punishment Alabama incurs in our formula.

Bottom Line: A No. 1 overall seed looks likely if Alabama can win two more games — but those games come against a challenging Auburn team and either Georgia or Missouri. The Tide will be favored in both, but they’re far from guarantees.

Next Up: vs. Auburn.

2. Baylor

Score: 52.5

Last Week: No. 2

The Numbers Say: The Bears rank all the way down at 11th in FEI, the analytics metric we use, and middling position in the Top 10 of the human polls (No. 5 and No. 6) doesn’t help. But the team ranks third in the country in offensive points per possession and faces the fourth-best championship odds in Vegas.

Bottom Line: Baylor isn’t getting much buzz and is mired in seventh out of seven real contenders in the eyes of the true committee. The Bears probably need help despite a chance at a respectable win against Kansas State to close the season.

Next Up: vs. Texas Tech.

3. TCU

Score: 56

Last Week: No. 3

The Numbers Say: The Horned Frogs rank between five and seven in the human polls, in Vegas, in analytics and according to the Sagarin Ratings. The team’s scoring efficiency is very good relative to the rest of college football — 11th on offense and 19th on defense — but that docks them slightly compared to the best in the country.

Bottom Line: Asking for a win at Texas on Thanksgiving is no easy task, but the Horned Frogs need more — a win with style. Do that and at the least TCU can present a strong argument as a top four team.

Next Up: at Texas (Thursday).

4. Mississippi State

Score: 59.5

Last Week: No. 8

The Numbers Say: The Bulldogs are 10th in analytics and just 26th in offensive scoring efficiency. But the team ranks fourth or fifth in the human polls, Vegas and Sagarin Ratings, enough to hold off Oregon by one point.

Bottom Line: Beat Ole Miss and the team still isn’t guaranteed a playoff spot at 11-1 in the SEC, assuming Florida State, Oregon and Alabama keep winning. But even then, a one-possession road loss to a potential No. 1 overall seed makes for a strong resume.

Next Up: at Ole Miss.

THE PAT HADENS

These teams are the last ones cut by that (crazy?) College Football Playoff Committee. If the season ended today.

5. Oregon

Score: 60.5

Last: No. 6

Next Up: at Oregon State.

6. Ohio State

Score: 63

Last: No. 5

Next Up: vs. Michigan.

7. Florida State

Score: 64.5

Last: No. 4

Next Up: vs. Florida.

THE DONALD STERLINGS

Only alive on paper.

Marshall

ELIMINATED FROM CONTENTION

These teams will not get a College Football Playoff bid.

Count: 120 of 128

Air Force
Akron
Appalachian State
Arizona
Arizona State
Arkansas
Arkansas State
Army
Auburn
Ball State
Boise State
Boston College
Bowling Green
Buffalo
BYU
California
Fresno State
Central Michigan
Cincinnati
Clemson
Colorado
Colorado State
Connecticut
Duke
Eastern Michigan
East Carolina
Florida
Florida Atlantic
Florida International
Georgia
Georgia Southern
Georgia State
Georgia Tech
Hawaii
Houston
Idaho
Illinois
Indiana
Iowa
Iowa State
Kansas
Kansas State
Kent State
Kentucky
LSU
Louisiana Tech
Louisiana-Lafayette
Louisiana-Monroe
Louisville
Maryland
Massachusetts
Memphis
Miami (FL)
Miami (Ohio)
Michigan
Michigan State
Middle Tennessee
Minnesota
Ole Miss
Missouri
Navy
Nebraska
Nevada
New Mexico
New Mexico State
North Carolina
North Carolina State
North Texas
Northern Illinois
Northwestern
Notre Dame
Ohio
Ohio State
Oklahoma
Oklahoma State
Old Dominion
Oregon State
Penn State
Pitt
Purdue
Rice
Rutgers
San Diego State
San Jose State
South Alabama
South Carolina
South Florida
Southern Methodist
Stanford
Syracuse
Temple
Tennessee
Texas
Texas A&M
Texas State
Texas Tech
Toledo
Troy
Tulane
Tulsa
UAB
UCF
UCLA
UNLV
USC
Utah
Utah State
UTEP
UTSA
Vanderbilt
Virginia
Virginia Tech
Wake Forest
Washington
Washington State
West Virginia
Western Kentucky
Western Michigan
Wisconsin
Wyoming