Say what you want about Auburn in 2017.

  • They played arguably the two best games of any team in America.
  • They got too cute.
  • They might’ve been the best team in the country with Kerryon Johnson healthy.
  • They completely collapsed in their losses.
  • Their defense was a nightmare to prepare for.
  • They weren’t the same team away from Jordan-Hare Stadium.
  • Gus Malzahn should be extended.
  • Gus Malzahn should be fired.

All of those things were said about Auburn at some point this season. The Tigers showed many faces the last three months, from team without an offensive line (vs. Clemson) to team that could win it all (vs. Alabama).

Now, there’s a simple question facing Auburn this postseason: Which team is gonna show up New Year’s Day in Atlanta for the Peach Bowl?

The oddsmakers have the Tigers as 9.5-point favorites against Central Florida. On the surface, that might sound like easy money. Not only did Auburn beat Georgia by 23, it also beat Alabama by 12. You mean to tell me that the Tigers can’t beat a Group of 5 team on a neutral site by as many points as they beat Alabama? We’re a week removed from debating if Auburn was going to win the national championship. Why not pencil in the Tigers to cover in a big way?

Not so fast. That line suggests that the oddsmakers are stumped, too.

The truth is, we really have no idea if Auburn is going to show up against UCF.

Credit: Jason Getz-USA TODAY Sports

Before you jump all over the idea of a team as talented as Auburn losing to a Group of 5 team in a New Year’s 6 bowl, let me take you back a bit.

It’s happened before. It’s actually happened several times. And while I’m not a believer that pre-current season history determines future outcomes, it’s at least worth noting that mid-majors had plenty of fun in the BCS era.

  • 2005 Fiesta Bowl — Utah (Mountain West) defeats Pitt 35-7
  • 2007 Fiesta Bowl — Boise State (WAC) defeats Oklahoma 43-42
  • 2009 Sugar Bowl — Utah (Mountain West) defeats Alabama 31-17
  • 2011 Rose Bowl — TCU (Mountain West) defeats Wisconsin 21-19
  • 2014 Fiesta Bowl — UCF (American) defeats Baylor 52-42

Now is the point in the story where I upload an extremely old YouTube clip of the Statue of Liberty Play to remind you that the 2007 Fiesta Bowl was BANANAS.

So yeah, it can happen.

And if you watched UCF at all this year, you know that the Knights are more than capable of scoring points in creative ways, especially against a team that doesn’t show up ready to play.

That’s perhaps the most interesting thing about this matchup. With the tempo and speed that UCF uses on offense, the Knights can be a poorly-conditioned team’s worst nightmare. Am I assuming that Auburn will be poorly conditioned? Absolutely not. But I wouldn’t assume that playing against UCF in the Peach Bowl will get Auburn fired up like any of the three epic games it played in the last month. Can the Tigers recover from that emotional roller coaster and impose their will?

There’s also the Johnson element. We don’t know if Auburn’s best player will be active for the bowl game. The junior tailback could decide that he’s off to the NFL and that he doesn’t want to risk further injury. We don’t know the status of Kam Pettway, either. And even if Pettway is active, we don’t know if the Auburn offense will be anywhere near as effective as it was with Johnson.

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Speaking of effectiveness, Auburn wasn’t the same team playing at the new Mercedes-Benz Stadium last week. What’s to say it will be in a month? New Year’s 6 team or not, Auburn was 3-3 away from Jordan-Hare this year. All three of those losses came against top-25 teams.

UCF, contrary to what some believe, is indeed a top-25 team. The Knights will enter the Peach Bowl as the only undefeated team in the FBS. New Nebraska coach Scott Frost is attempting to do two jobs by coaching the Knights in the bowl game. That atypical move could benefit Auburn, or it could just mean that the guy who engineered the No. 1 scoring offense in America will be on the sidelines.

Either way, it doesn’t change the reality that this is UCF’s biggest game in program history. A chance to beat a traditional SEC power is monumental for so many of those kids who were passed over by SEC programs. It’s huge for recruiting. It means everything for a fanbase that’s desperate to show the world that it belonged in the Playoff. No wonder UCF fans sold out their ticket allotment in less than 24 hours.

Auburn will face an inspired UCF team. There’s no doubt about that.

The bigger question is if Auburn has any inspiration to play in this game.