Sometimes, it’s tough to get a preseason feel for a team.

That can be the result of a team that struggled mightily the previous year, and many are wondering just how much it underachieved with the old coaching staff. The believers get caught up in talking about how talented the roster is while the skeptics keep reverting to how difficult it is to turn things around overnight.

It forces projections all over the place. Some want to set the bar at just reaching a bowl game while others believe contending for a division title is perfectly realistic.

Yes, I’m talking about Florida.

The Gators are a tough team to forecast in Year 1 of the Dan Mullen era. Every argument that can be made for an imminent turnaround can be countered. Every argument that can be made for a repeat of 2017 can be countered, as well. My brain is in a pretzel thinking about what the program will look like in Year 1 of the Mullen era. Others, like Buddy Martin, are not.

When I hear people like that or Phil Steele predict that the Gators will be “the most improved team” in the country, my knee-jerk reaction is to disagree. I seem to remember Florida only getting to 4 wins because of a Hail Mary against a team that went winless in the SEC and because Kentucky forgot how many defenders to put on the field … twice.

See what I mean? It’s so challenging to forecast a team that had such a weird season. From the credit card scandal to Jim McElwain’s midseason firing, I don’t think it’s easy to forecast Florida’s ceiling in 2018.

But hey, I’ll give it a shot.

Let me go back to Steele’s “most improved team” prediction. Florida can technically achieve that by winning 8 games in the regular season. Not a lot of Power 5 teams do that, much less with a new coach.

A +4 in the win department wouldn’t be unprecedented in the SEC, though. Georgia had a 5-win improvement from 2016 to 2017. During the Playoff era, however, no first-year SEC coach improved his team’s win total by 4 games. McElwain was +3 in 2015 and Will Muschamp was +3 in his first season at South Carolina in 2016.

That’s not to say a first-year coach can’t double a team’s win total. After all, Jim Harbaugh did that in Year 1 at Michigan in 2015 (5 to 10 wins) and Jeff Brohm did that at Purdue last year (3 to 7 wins). Shoot, who could forget the unprecedented 9-game improvement that Gus Malzahn had in his first year at Auburn in 2013? It’s still more of the exception than the rule for first-year coaches.

Credit: Reinhold Matay-USA TODAY Sports

But can a team with Florida’s talent — the Gators averaged the No. 13 recruiting class the last 5 years — win 8 games? Absolutely. I’m not willing to put the ceiling below that mark, especially with Todd Grantham running that defense. As long as Cece Jefferson is healthy, I like the chances of a veteran-laden unit finishing in the top 25 in scoring defense.

I outlined why I’m a big believer in the Gators’ running game, as well. The return of Jordan Scarlett could fuel a sneaky candidate to have the SEC’s top rushing attack. Add in Van Jefferson to what figures to be an explosive group of wideouts and I think the Gators have more potential on the outside than they’ve had in recent memory.

So what’s limiting Florida’s ceiling? Two things, the first of which is obvious. It’s the quarterback situation.

Florida can’t be penciled in as a legitimate threat to win the division with that position looking like such a major question mark. I believe Kyle Trask will win the job and be a better fit in Mullen’s offense than Feleipe Franks. But we’re still talking about someone without a college snap playing in a new system. I detailed why Year 1 dominance in Mullen’s system is extremely rare, even with the greats that he coached.

Can Florida be average at quarterback and still be a solid team? Sure. But as we saw throughout the McElwain era, you can’t be 1-dimensional against good teams. The Gators have plenty of those on the schedule.

These are the games that I think will give them major problems:

  • at Mississippi State
  • vs. LSU
  • vs. Georgia (in Jacksonville)
  • at Florida State

Before you start to tell me why those games won’t be that difficult, LSU is 4-1 against Florida in the past 5 years and FSU won 5 consecutive contests in the rivalry. MSU and Georgia are loaded with defensive talent, and both thrive on shutting down 1-dimensional offenses. That’s what Florida is for the time being.

It’s tough to see a scenario in which Florida wins 2 of those 4 contests. Let’s just say that they win 1. Do we really think that Florida is going undefeated in these matchups?

  • at Tennessee
  • vs. Mizzou
  • vs. South Carolina

All 3 of those teams are expected to be improved, which is why I think 2-1 is a best-case scenario for those matchups. Combine that with a 1-3 mark from the aforementioned “games that will give them major problems” and a 5-0 mark for the “games I think Florida will undoubtedly be favored” and we have our number.

That’s how I came to 8-4 as a best-case scenario for Florida’s regular season. To be clear, that’s not necessarily what I’m predicting for the Gators’ season (consider that a shameless plug for my team-by-team crystal ball column that’ll come out this August).

Can ceilings change? Absolutely. Players get hurt and suspended while others underwhelm and overwhelm. Florida’s ceiling dropped in a hurry last year when that credit card scandal hit right before the start of the season. Maybe Florida’s ceiling will rise after Trask throws for 300 yards and 3 touchdown passes in Mullen’s return to Starkville.

For now, though, I’m not willing to say that a 9-win regular season is a realistic expectation for the Gators. Let’s set the ceiling at 8.

Sorry, Buddy.