Prediction pieces are dangerous business for sportswriters, and they are even more difficult to write when a program enters Year 1 under a new coaching staff.

Even with big name hires, there are very few guarantees year one.

For every Steve Spurrier and Florida in 1990, Les Miles and LSU in 2005 or Gus Malzahn and Auburn in 2013 type magical story, there’s an 8-5 Kirby Smart Year 1 at Georgia in 2016 or a slightly better but not great 9-5 Dabo Swinney at Clemson in 2009 to balance it. Even Nick Saban, the greatest coach in the history of the sport, went a pedestrian 6-6 in his first regular season at the helm of Alabama.

Complicating matters at Florida, is Dan Mullen tasked with revamping a listless offense that hasn’t finished better than 74th nationally in S&P+ total offense since 2012; he’s also charged with healing a toxic culture that derailed Florida’s 2017 campaign and has produced two 4-win seasons in the past five years.

Heady stuff, but the truth is most new coaches arrive at big-time programs in times of crisis. If there weren’t issues, the old guard would probably still be in charge.

Roster-wise, Dan Mullen returns an experienced group (fourth-most experienced nationally), led by a splendid core of talent at wide receiver and a stable of impressive running backs offensively that should help ease the burden on whomever wins the starting quarterback position during camp. At present, the starter is likely to be the uber-talented redshirt sophomore reclamation project Feleipe Franks.

On defense, the transition away from Randy Shannon’s vanilla but safe 4-3 to Todd Grantham’s pressure-happy Steelers 3-4 figures to ratchet up Florida’s big play production, even if the newfound aggression means Gators continue to give up a few too many chunk plays on the back end. The good news? With playmakers and future pros like Cece Jefferson, Jabari Zuniga and the wildly underrated Jachai Polite up front, Florida should improve on a unit that finished outside the top 20 in S & P+ total defense for the first time since 2007 a season ago.

As far as the schedule is concerned, chalk up three victories for the Gators out of the gate: Charleston Southern in the season opener, the annual win over Kentucky a week later, and a home tilt with Idaho in late November following the conclusion of conference play.

Colorado State, a bowl team a year ago with an excellent offense, figures to be a tricky test in Week 3, but Florida is at home and Dan Mullen has been tremendous in his career at winning these types of “trap games.” I’ll carefully add that one to the win column as well and will do the same for Florida’s Oct. 13 trip to Nashville, where the Commodores usually play the Gators tough but Florida’s talent and running game should prevail. That slate puts Florida at 5 in the win column, one more than a year ago.

In the loss column, it’s difficult to see Florida prevailing in the Cocktail Party in Jacksonville. While some have tapped Georgia to take a step backward this year after being one stop from their first national championship since the Carter Administration, there’s just too many questions for the Gators right now to suggest they’ll topple their border rivals in a battle for SEC East supremacy.

The remaining six games are best characterized as “swing games,” the types of contests that tell us what a football team is made of and how they will be remembered.

In schedule order, here are the six football games that will define Florida’s season.

Sept. 22 at Tennessee

Florida has won 12 of 13 against the rival Volunteers, but three of the past four have been decided in the fourth quarter, including last season’s memorable “Heave to Cleave” in The Swamp.

While it’s difficult to project what Jeremy Pruitt has in store for Year 1 in Knoxville, what’s certain is Pruitt should improve the team defensively from last year’s woeful 29.1 points-per-game average and as always, Neyland Stadium will be rocking for the arrival of the hated Gators.

It’s the kind of win the Vols need to have any chance at a winning season, and the kind of loss that could take the air out of Mullen and Florida’s balloon before the Mullen era really gets off the ground.

Tony Barnhart is on record picking the Vols.

I’m less confident he’s right, but if Mr. College Football is, the Gators are in trouble.

Chance of Florida victory: 60 percent

Sept. 29 at Miss State

In truth, I nearly put this one in Florida’s loss column.

With uncertainty at quarterback and not a single QB who has won an SEC road game, winning in Starkville in front of 60,000 cowbell-clanging, frothing at the mouth Bulldogs faithful all eager to “welcome” Mullen home to Starkville sounds like a fairly impossible task for Florida.

Plus, Joe Moorhead inherits the best collection of talent Mullen ever assembled in his tenure at State, led by senior QB Nick Fitzgerald and senior tailback Aeris Williams, not to mention that menacing defense.

It won’t be easy, but if anyone best understands Miss State’s weaknesses, it’s probably Mullen and Todd Grantham.

Florida rarely plays well in the Magnolia State, and the home team in this matchup has won 11 of the past 13. Still, should Florida beat Tennessee a week earlier, this is the type of game that interjects Florida back into the national conversation if they win.

Chance of Florida win: 20 percent

Oct. 6 vs. LSU

Florida gets LSU at home for a second consecutive season after Joe Alleva’s hurricane rescheduling tantrum resulted in a stolen LSU home game (won by Florida) in 2016.

The Gators lost last year, and the game sent the two programs in opposite trajectories.

Florida collapsed, losing five consecutive and a head coach in the process.

LSU, which entered The Swamp having just lost on Homecoming to Troy, rallied, winning six of their final seven regular-season contests to finish 9-3.

The Gators likely will be coming off a loss, and this will be the loudest home game of Florida’s season, as the Gators will honor Tim Tebow by inducting him into the Ring of Honor at halftime.

Mullen needs this game to help reclaim The Swamp, a venue that used to enjoy a veneer of invincibility but of late has seen too many empty seats and too many Gators losses.

I like the matchup for Florida, and bet Mullen and Grantham have the Gators ready.

Chance of Florida win: 70 percent

Nov. 3 vs. Missouri

Homecoming in Gainesville used to mean a Gators victory, but it wasn’t that long ago, in 2014, when Mizzou visited The Swamp on Homecoming and embarrassed Will Muschamp and Florida 42-13 in one of the most lopsided home losses in Gators history.

Credit: Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports

Speaking of lopsided losses, Missouri led Florida 42-9 last year before the Gators collected a garbage time touchdown, which makes you wonder why Cece Jefferson was running his mouth about Missouri at SEC Media Days.

The Tigers will be ready, as Drew Lock admitted Jefferson’s remarks have created a buzz about the game in Columbia. Further, the Tigers will be confident. They know they can outplay the Gators. Lock blistered a young Florida secondary a year ago and after the loss, Florida players admitted they quit on the field. It was a low-point for a proud Florida program.

Hopefully that motivates Mullen and Florida this season. They’ll need the help.

Chance of Florida winning: 40 percent

Nov. 10 vs. South Carolina

The Gators fought hard in Columbia last season, but a furious rally fell short. This year, the Gamecocks are the darlings of the preseason media, tapped to finish second in the SEC East and a fashionable pick to upset Georgia this September.

I’m less convinced. The Gamecocks won five games by seven points or less and were the lowest-ranked S &P+ team (60th) to win nine football games.

The knock against Will Muschamp teams at Florida- beyond the fact he only had one offense finish better than 74th overall — was that they were a poor favorite, too often playing to the level of their competition. The Gators were 8-7 as favorites in Muschamp’s final two seasons, which was part of why he didn’t get to stay despite being well-liked within the Florida administration.

How will he handle being a favorite at Carolina?

That’s a question we’ll likely know the answer to in November, and the bet here is that even with Rico Dowdle and Deebo Samuel healthy, Gamecocks fans may be disappointed in the answer.

Chance of Florida win: 70 percent

Nov. 24 at Florida State

The Gators have won this game one time this decade (a 37-26 victory at Doak Campbell Stadium in 2012). That’s Florida’s longest such stretch of futility in a decade in the history of this rivalry, and in truth, Florida hasn’t been close over the past five seasons, save a nip and tuck contest under a lame duck Muschamp in 2014.

With FSU also a program in transition in year one under Willie Taggart, this is an immense game. FSU will want to continue its momentum and maintain in-state dominance, especially given the game’s immense correlation to recruiting success.

The winner of this game has ended the year with the better recruiting class in every season since 2004. That’s an astonishing streak, and Dan Mullen and the Gators can’t afford to allow FSU’s dominance to extend into a fourth Gators coaching staff.

Chance of Florida victory: 30 percent.