Florida and LSU meet for the 69th time Saturday night in Gainesville (7 p.m. ET, ESPN).

Both teams enter the contest 4-2, but the Gators are coming off a Homecoming victory over Missouri, while the Tigers are coming off one of their worst home losses this century, a 27-point trouncing at the hands of Tennessee. Florida is desperate to end a 3-game losing streak to LSU, while the Tigers have seniors hoping to go 4-0 against the Gators, which would be a first for any LSU 4-year senior class. With 2 1st-year coaches at the helm in Brian Kelly at LSU and Billy Napier at Florida, this game may partially serve — fairly or unfairly — as a referendum on the better hire.

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Here are 3 matchups that will define Saturday night’s rivalry showdown in The Swamp, followed by a prediction.

Florida’s versatile run game against LSU’s underwhelming ability to hold the edge

The Gators are extremely versatile in their run game concepts. Florida runs off left tackle 29 percent of all plays, between the tackles on 37 percent of run plays and off right tackle on 31 percent of run plays. Reverses and end-around concepts account for the remainder of Florida’s called runs, per Stats Solutions.

The Gators are also deep in terms of who carries the football. Along with the threat of quarterback Anthony Richardson as a runner, all 3 of Florida’s primary running backs — Nay’Quan Wright, Trevor Etienne and Montrell Johnson Jr. — have at least 1 game with double-digit carries this season. By contrast, Dameon Pierce was the lone Gators running back with 10 or more attempts in a game last season, and that didn’t happen until after Dan Mullen was dismissed. Each of the Gators running backs brings something different, but Etienne — a 4-star out of Jennings, La., who chose the Gators over Clemson — is perhaps Florida’s most gamebreaking threat. He runs with a beautiful blend of balance and burst:

Johnson, the Louisiana transfer, is averaging a staggering 8 yards per carry, and he leads Florida in yards gained after contact. He’s tough to bring down, and the Florida staff is aware of it, so it is willing to utilize him in more contact-intensive run concepts like counter plays.

Wright is the best blocker of the group. He’s also highly useful in the passing game, leading all SEC running backs in receptions over the past 3 seasons, though Florida’s staff has not done a good job involving him in the pass game this year. 

The net result of Florida’s outstanding depth — along with being multiple in how they approach running the football — has been a very productive rushing offense. Florida ranks 17th nationally in rushing offense, 3rd in yards per attempt and 22nd in rushing success rate. The yards per carry vs. success rate number suggests the Gators are very explosive running the ball, even if they aren’t always successful. Still, with a ranking of 22nd in success rate, Florida is one of the more “on schedule” in terms of down and distance run games in the country.

That will pose a formidable challenge for LSU.

The Tigers were shredded to the tune of 263 yards on a 5.4-yard-per-carry clip by Tennessee last week, and they have had trouble holding the edge all year, surrendering 5.7 yards per carry on off-tackle concepts, as opposed to a stingy 3.8 between the tackles largely thanks to the dominance of Mekhi Wingo on the interior. Statistically, that means Maason Smith’s injury, while damaging the team from a leadership and schematic perspective, hasn’t hurt the run defense as badly as perception indicates, but the lack of productivity from Ali Gaye has been seriously disappointing.

The Tigers’ woes against the run may be a one-off — or at least, that’s what Kelly hopes, and part of what he meant this week when he said LSU needs to “clean up mistakes defensively.” LSU limited a quality FSU run game (25th nationally in rushing offense, 11th in yards per attempt) to just 132 yards and 3.5 yards per attempt. It also shut down a bad rushing attack in Auburn (75th nationally in rushing offfense, 57th of 75 teams I rank in my success rate metric), holding it to just 101 yards and 3.2 per attempt.

Which LSU run defense shows up against the best rushing offense that the Tigers have played all season?

Can Florida avoid a 2021 repeat against the LSU run game?

The way to beat Florida in The Swamp, at least for the past 40-plus years as the Gators have accumulated the best home win percentage in the SEC since 1980, has been to run the football, shorten the game and limit the influence of the crowd by essentially “boring” the game to death.

Under Mullen, the Gators were outstanding at home, losing just 4 times in 4 years, and Napier has started strong, going 4-1 at home despite the disappointing loss to Kentucky on Sept. 10. Kentucky won the game with turnovers, mostly, but it also pulled away late because it ran the football effectively in the 2nd half.

The run game is likely to be key for LSU as well.

Last season, LSU pulled one of the more memorable upsets in the history of the series by doing what no one thought it could do: running the ball down an opponent’s throat. LSU entered the 2021 game ranked dead last in the SEC in rushing yards per game and success rate, with an offensive line that was under heavy, deserved criticism ahead of the game. Its offensive struggles entering the game left the No. 20 Gators as a slight road favorite. Ed Orgeron challenged the unit to impose its will on the Gators, and it did. Tyrion Davis-Price set an LSU school record, rushing for 287 yards and 3 touchdowns, pacing a 300-plus-yard Tigers run game effort.

Some of the plays in the Davis-Price highlights are staggering when you see the push that LSU was able to generate against Florida’s front. The Gators linebackers — who were, it should be noted, playing without Ventrell Miller — had little chance because linemen were 2nd level.

The similarities between LSU last year and this year, at least in the run game, are intriguing. The Tigers rank 53rd in the country in rushing offense, 46th in yards per attempt and 40th of 75 teams I rate in success rate.  That’s better than last year, when they entered the Florida game ranked 129th in rushing offense and 127th in yards per attempt. But LSU managed just 55 yards against Tennessee last week, with just 1 explosive (10 yards or more) run, and averaged just 3.8 yards per attempt with a low success rate (38 percent) against Auburn the week prior. The offensive line is struggling, though how much of that has to do with the absence of Will Campbell (who missed last week’s game with a health issue that left him hospitalized) and Garrett Dellinger (battling it out with a knee injury) remains to be seen. Dellinger is out Saturday, but if Campbell can go as expected, the Tigers will receive a huge boost.

LSU won’t need to hold blocks too long against Florida’s front.

The Gators are woeful against the run for the 3rd consecutive season, ranking 110th in rushing defense, 97th in yards allowed per run play and 66th of 75 teams in my success rate against run defense metric. Florida is a full yard better per attempt with Miller, who has missed the bulk of 2 games with a foot injury. But the Gators have allowed at least 150 yards rushing to 4 of their 5 FBS opponents this season, and Utah, USF and Tennessee all eclipsed 200 yards rushing.

Watch the battle inside between Charles Turner III and Gervon Dexter Sr. in particular. Dexter, the Gators’ former 5-star defensive tackle, has played great football over the past 2 weeks. He’ll need to be terrific again for Florida to win Saturday. If LSU eclipses the 200-yard rushing mark, a Florida win seems highly unlikely.

Anthony Richardson vs. the LSU linebacker eye candy

LSU defensive coordinator Matt House absolutely loves to move his linebackers around, even shifting formations from 3-4 to 4-3 depending on the personnel he wants for a particular package. His linebacker movement and exotic blitzes, perfected in an NFL stint coaching linebackers, can create problems for less experienced quarterbacks. LSU lost an All-American at linebacker in Damone Clark, and Clemson transfer Mike Jones Jr. has disappointed. That said, Micah Baskerville is one of the nation’s best coverage backers, and Harold Perkins Jr. has been tremendous, with 26 tackles, 2 sacks, 1 interception and 13 pressures. Perkins bizarrely played just 9 downs against Tennessee, which should never happen again. He’s too valuable athletically, regardless of whether LSU is playing a spread team or a power team.

Perkins, who picked LSU over Florida and Texas A&M, rescued LSU against Auburn on the play above, and it’s frightening to think he’s still learning. How House utilizes him — and the fact that Richardson has to attend to where BJ Ojulari is on every snap — create a host of pre-snap obligations for Richardson against LSU. The Gators quarterback did not deal well with linebacker movement and pre-snap considerations against Kentucky’s outstanding linebackers. LSU’s linebacking corps is the best Richardson has seen since. He’ll need to be much, much better against the Tigers.

Prediction: Florida 27, LSU 21

This rivalry produces close games. Eight of the past 10 have been decided by a possession or less. Expect this version to be no different. Throw in the fact that both teams desperately need a win to improve the optics of their programs in year 1 of new regimes — especially LSU, who owned the Gators under Orgeron — and you get a recipe for a frenetic, intense game.

Florida will play in The Swamp just 1 more time this season after Saturday night, hosting South Carolina in November. A win against LSU would give Napier a legitimate shot at a 6-1 home mark in his 1st year, an impressive feat for any Florida head coach. The Swamp has been the difference in this game before, and it may be again on Saturday night. Just as Richardson and Florida’s comeback fell short in a rowdy Tiger Stadium a season ago, expect the Gators’ run game to do enough to score and, in the end, the Gators’ sellout crowd to propel Florida to a late defensive stop and victory.