5 bold predictions for Kentucky vs. Louisville
Sure, the rivalry burns hottest in basketball. But don’t think that means that there isn’t plenty of heat on the football field. If Kentucky and Louisville have a tiddlywinks competition, it’s going to be intense.
Throw in a semi-famous hatred, add the occasional brawl (see 2014 edition here) …
… and Kentucky and Louisville should be interesting. So what do we know? Time to go bold ….
1. The Run Game is Key — and it looks good for Kentucky: Well, you could say this about most games — but historically, it’s extra important in this rivalry. Since the battle for the Governor’s Cup began in 1994, the team that wins the rushing battle is 21-1. The only exception? The 2014 game, the last matchup in Louisville, when UK outrushed U of L 151-83, but lost 44-40.
This year, both teams can run. Louisville averages 254.6 rushing yards per game, while Kentucky averages 242.4. But the trends here is that UK is amping up its ground game. Only once in the past five games has UK been held to under 262 yards rushing. Meanwhile, for Louisville, only once in the past five games have they eclipsed 210 yards rushing. So advantage ‘Cats, who will outrush the Cards.
2. Lamar Jackson will have a big day — but Kentucky hopes that Brandon Radcliff gets the ball a lot: It’s no secret. Kentucky struggles with mobile quarterbacks, and last season at Commonwealth Stadium, Lamar Jackson led Louisville from a 24-7 halftime deficit to a 38-24 win by running read option again and again and again. Jackson finished with 17 carries for 186 yards and two scores — in part because Kentucky kept biting on RB Radcliff on the read-option plays.
Radcliff had 14 carries for just 62 yards. And if Kentucky is going to win, they have to make Jackson give the ball to Radcliff on those read-option plays. If Radcliff carries the ball 20 times, Kentucky’s chances are much better than otherwise. The guess here is that happens. Kentucky just hopes that Jackson, the Heisman front-runner, doesn’t rack up 200 yards on ten carries or something similar.
Credit: Rich Barnes-USA TODAY Sports
3. Protection is key — and UK is solid there too: In Louisville’s two losses, they have sacked the opposing QB zero and one times, respectively. In ugly, close wins against Duke and Virginia, they sacked the QB one time each. In their other seven games, they average over 3.5 sacks per game.
Kentucky’s offensive tackles are still a bit uncertain, but its interior line play has been consistently improving, and it should help keep QB Stephen Johnson upright. Johnson’s deep ball passing will surprise the Cards … don’t misunderstand, we’re not saying he’ll throw for 300 yards, but that he’ll complete enough passes to keep Louisville honest.
4. A couple of turnovers will help UK dominate time of possession: Kentucky’s ground based attack works best when it stays on the field. Given the fact that there’s a quick-strike element to Louisville’s offense, the ‘Cats should win the time of possession battle.
Also, Louisville has 28 fumbles, with 20 lost, for the season. Kentucky has been a bit fumble prone, with 21 fumbles and 14 lost … but Louisville will either score or turn the ball over — in either case, they’ll do it quickly.
5. Kentucky will come close but not pull off the upset: Sure, the line is around 24 points. But in this series? Forget it. But it’s at Louisville, you might think. So what, says history. Kentucky leads Louisville 6-5 in games played in Louisville. Most of the games have been competitive, and this one will be no different.
Snell and Williams will outrush Jackson and Radcliff, and Kentucky will lead late — but Louisville will come back in a heartbreaker for the Wildcats. The good news for Kentucky is that the gap between the programs is closing, and quickly. But the best player in the game (Jackson) will be wearing Cardinal Red, and he will be the difference.
