Those who follow LSU football are well aware, Ed Orgeron’s name is being linked to the hot seat.

The dreaded two words cannot be ignored. Whether there is some buyer’s remorse on the Bayou as rivals and other powerhouse programs make more “splashy” hires or uncertainty for other reasons, plenty of people are speculating whether Orgeron’s long-term fate will be decided by his team’s final record in 2018.

ESPN’s Football Power Index – the World Wide Leader’s “measure of team strength that is meant to be the best predictor of a team’s performance going forward” based on simulations – says it won’t be pretty for Orgeron’s squad this season. FPI has the season starting off on a low note with the wheels potentially falling off in early November.

The FPI gives LSU only a 34 percent chance of winning against Miami in the Week 1 trip to Dallas. Southwestern Louisiana is an almost certain win at 98.6 percent. But in Week 3, LSU’s chance of beating Auburn is only 17.4 percent.

Coach O can expect some noise in the system if the Tigers are 1-2 entering Week 4. But September closes out with winnable games Louisiana Tech (85.7 percent) and Ole Miss (69.5 percent).

The big question becomes can Orgeron survive potentially four consecutive losses. FPI has LSU the underdog against Florida (Oct. 6, 35 percent win probability), Georgia (Oct. 13, 22.8 percent), Mississippi State (Oct. 20, 40.4 percent) and Alabama (Nov. 3, 22.2 percent).

If the schedule plays out as the FPI projects, LSU would be 3-6 on Nov. 10. The next two games are winnable (Arkansas – 55 percent; Rice – 98.7 percent), but the season finale against Texas A&M poses more trouble (34.8 percent).

Interestingly, ESPN’s FPI overall projection has LSU going 6-6, despite being favored to win in only five games. Orgeron may need more than one upset to survive 2018.