LSU vs. FSU: Final thoughts and a prediction

Florida State has played a game.

LSU hasn’t.

The Seminoles have the advantage of having gotten through a game-week and game-day routine as well as defeating an opponent – FCS foe Duquesne (47-7).

The Tigers have the advantage of not having played a game, leaving FSU to speculate about what to expect Sunday night in the Caesars Superdome – especially against a team featuring a new head coach in Brian Kelly.

This is a new beginning for LSU – a new head coach, a new staff, a bunch of new players.

That might be a good thing after a 6-7 season in 2021 and a 5-5 season in 2020.

We’ll find out soon enough.

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Here are 5 things I need to see from LSU against Florida State on Sunday, followed by a prediction on how it will shake out:

1. A well-prepared team

Kelly himself said during the offseason that Tigers fans should expect to see a team that looks like it is coached by someone entering his 32nd season as a head coach.

LSU should be well-prepared, look like a team that knows exactly what it plans to do, that knows exactly how to react to what the opponent wants to do and doesn’t beat itself.

That might seem like a given, but it’s not. The past 2 LSU team didn’t look like that most of the time.

Kelly has won a lot of games at each of his previous 4 stops. His first LSU team should immediately show that it knows what it’s supposed to be doing.

2. A quarterback who is a leader

It doesn’t matter if Jayden Daniels starts or Garrett Nussmeier starts or they split the snaps roughly equally.

The stats don’t matter a whole lot either.

Yeah it would be great if the Tigers complete somewhere around 70 percent of their passes for a whole bunch of yards with a few touchdowns and no interceptions.

Something along those lines is important.

But so is a leader.

The quarterback needs to demonstrate immediately and consistently that he has command of Mike Denbrock’s offense.

He needs to exit the huddle and approach the line of scrimmage with confidence and maybe even a little swagger. He needs to survey the situation down in and down out and put LSU’s offense in position to successfully attack the FSU defense.

The quarterback needs to demonstrate to his teammates that he is control, that he knows how his offense can defeat the Seminoles defense and which teammates he must deliver the ball to – then do it.

3. An effective running game even without John Emery

Emery is the Tigers’ best running back, but he won’t be available for the first 2 games.

Kelly has said Noah Cain, Armoni Goodwin and Josh Williams will be involved in the running game. He also has been pleased with the evolution of the offensive line during the summer.

Previous teams coached by Kelly, previous LSU teams and previous teams of all types generally have had success when they have been able to run the effectively without being dependent on 1 or 2 or 3 players.

So forget about Emery.

LSU needs to run the ball effectively Sunday.

4. A reliable kicker

Walk-on Damian Ramos has beaten out heralded recruit Nathan Dibert to handle field goals and extra points.

LSU has been spoiled in recent seasons by the reliability of Cade York and Cole Tracy.

Dibert was expected to continue that trend but he’s not the starter.

Maybe the walk-on is just that good. Or maybe the recruit is struggling to make the transition to college football.

It doesn’t really matter.

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Either way, the Tigers go into the season with an unproven kicker.

Kelly said he won’t alter his play-calling or decision-making to baby an unproven kicker. He’ll send him out there and expect him to perform.

Maybe he will.

The turf and the indoor surroundings in the Superdome provide exceptionally good kicking conditions.

Ramos needs to take advantage.

5. A defense that is in sync

The 2020 LSU defense was a disaster. The Tigers gave up a ton of big plays. There were all kinds of mental breakdowns.

Opposing running backs broke free from the backfield unimpeded, and wide receivers ran free for big gains and touchdowns.

LSU defenders often looked befuddled. They pointed at each other, sometimes placing blame elsewhere, sometimes just trying to figure out what went wrong.

The 2021 season started with similar bad stuff, though things did get better down the stretch.

These Tigers aren’t going to be very good unless Kelly and defensive coordinator Matt House send out a defense that knows what it’s doing.

The talent is there.

Now the players have to be comfortable enough in their knowledge of the scheme to play fast and confident.

The prediction: LSU 23, Florida State 17

Florida State might be a bit sharper than LSU at the ouset because they’ve already played a game, but it won’t LSU long to settle — especially being energized by the crowd in the sold-out Superdome.

If the Seminoles run the ball anything close to the way they did last week, the Tigers will be in trouble. But that won’t happen. The defensive line is going to be a strength for LSU and the defense as a whole will contain the FSU running game in what will turn into a defensive game.

The drama of whether Jayden Daniels or Garrett Nussmeier takes the first snap at QB for the Tigers will quickly be overshadowed by the playmaking of LSU’s deep receiving corps, which will make either — or both — quarterback look good.

They’ll ultimately make enough big plays to turn Kelly’s debut into a win.