Let’s look at the facts.

A 6-win team that loses 10 players to the NFL Draft is usually going to struggle out of the gate the following season. Perhaps I shouldn’t say “usually” because that combination has never existed until 2022 (at least not in the 7-round era going back to 1994). Add in the fact that said team has a brand new coaching staff — which also means the defense has its 4th different defensive coordinator in as many years — and it signed 15 transfers players, 1 of whom might be the new starting quarterback.

That team is LSU. I know, I know. You might forget that watching on Sunday night against Florida State. Our brains will tell us that a pair of programs that won national titles in the past decade should, in theory, not be so sloppy. Our eyes will tell us that a pair of programs that most recently had losing seasons in the last year should, in theory, be extremely sloppy.

But hey, that’s OK. A sloppy win beats the heck out of LSU’s past 2 season-openers, both of which were ugly losses to lesser-talented Power 5 teams. If a sloppy 60 minutes yields a 1-0 start to 2022, nobody should be surprised (I picked LSU to win). And on the flip side, if a sloppy 60 minutes yields an 0-1 start to the Brian Kelly era, don’t be alarmed.

Again, just look at the facts.

The facts are that LSU’s 20 consecutive seasons of 8-plus wins to kick off the 21st century was darn impressive. Kelly’s future at LSU won’t be determined based on getting back to that program floor in Year 1. He can go 6-6 or — dare I say — 5-7 and we shouldn’t necessarily change our long-term outlook of his potential in Baton Rouge.

Will people wait for LSU’s worst moments to try to dunk on Kelly by retweeting videos of him dancing and/or botched southern accent attempts? Yeah. Welcome to the internet. That’s how this works.

Don’t get it twisted. It would be darn impressive if LSU came out and had a 2018-like showing to kick off the season by trouncing another school from the Sunshine State in a neutral-site matchup on Sunday night. But that shouldn’t be the expectation.

Why? Besides the uncertainty of having a new starting quarterback, the offensive line is loaded with questions. As The Athletic’s Brody Miller noted, it’s telling that the most solidified spot is a true freshman (Will Campbell) starting at left tackle. For a unit that ranked No. 114 in FBS in rushing last year with just 9 rushing touchdowns all season, no, I don’t expect that unit to be significantly better from the jump, especially with John Emery Jr. still serving his academic suspension stemming from his 2020 issues.

And defensively, LSU looking like its former self doesn’t feel likely. As in, the group that ranked No. 99 in FBS in quarterback rating allowed and must replace Derek Stingley Jr., Eli Ricks and ace slot corner Cordale Flott. That’s where there’s the most pressure on transfer portal additions to work out. Between Joe Foucha, Sevyn Banks, Greg Brooks Jr. and Jarrick Bernard-Converse, LSU’s defensive potential could come down to how quickly those new secondary pieces gel.

Again, any team with its 4th defensive coordinator in as many seasons should expect a learning curve, even if it’s a program who had 8 top-25 defenses in the 9 seasons prior to that.

It’s hard to keep that context in mind when we see LSU playing a traditional power in a primetime matchup on opening weekend. It skews things even more with the Sunday night opener being played in New Orleans, where LSU is 7-1 in the 21st century, including a certain national title to close out a perfect 2019 season.

But there are just way more questions than answers with the 2022 version of LSU.

Who knows what we should expect from Kayshon Boutte, AKA LSU’s best player. He’s set to play in his first game since undergoing 2 ankle surgeries, and he’ll be catching passes from either Jayden Daniels or Garrett Nussmeier, neither of whom has completed a pass to Boutte in a game (that stat is more important for Nussmeier coming off a freshman season in which 3 of the 4 games he played in were decided by the time he entered).

Kelly shared on Monday that he won’t publicly name a starter ahead of Sunday’s opener. He’s trying to keep everything under wraps to try and not tip LSU’s hand. Say what you will about that, but it speaks to the uncertain nature of his team’s 2022 identity. Nussmeier could get the nod and either live up to that offseason buzz or look like a guy in Game 1 of a new offense. Alternatively, Daniels could be QB1 and either look like the true freshman who shined at Arizona State in 2019 … or he could also look like a guy in Game 1 of a new offense.

The safest bet is that LSU fails to look like a well-oiled machine. There’s a reason why Utah-Florida is the only SEC game with a lower over/under (LSU-FSU is 51.5 on FanDuel). To be fair, the Tigers have had probably 2-3 instances in the last 2 seasons in which they delivered an impressive showing on both sides of the ball against Power 5 competition. If Sunday night is a clean game, great. That won’t guarantee a winning record in the toughest division in America, but it would be the first step — albeit a small one — in Kelly showing the college football world that he can win anywhere.

A fascinating chapter in Baton Rouge officially begins on Sunday night. Just don’t be surprised — or concerned — if it’s nothing to write home about.