LSU enters the 2015 loaded with individual talent—maybe the most in the conference. The Tigers were tied with Alabama for the most members of the coaches’ All-SEC team, which was released earlier this week.

Of course, the Tigers were pretty well stocked with talent last year (and the year before that, and the before that one, too). They know full well by now, a stocked roster doesn’t always yield a championship.

But it definitely doesn’t hurt.

That’s why LSU is near the top of Vegas’ list for SEC frontrunners this season, despite a lackluster showing at the tail end of 2014.

Here, we make the case for and the case against LSU’s chances at a run to the conference championship game this December.

The case for LSU

Since 2003, LSU has won an SEC championship every four years. Coincidence you say?

Well, probably. But there are plenty of good reasons the Tigers could continue that quadrennial trend in 2015.

  • LSU has arguably the best secondary in the country. Last year they led the SEC in pretty much every meaningful pass defense category without the benefit of pass rush. They’ve got three established playmakers coming back from that group (when Jalen Mills returns from his ankle injury); imagine what they might do if the Tigers improve their pressure.
  • Speaking of which, the reshaped defensive coaching staff includes the addition of Ed Orgeron as the defensive line coach. Though he’s best known for his recruiting prowess, Orgeron is one of the most experienced d-line coaches in the country and has been focused since his arrival on beefing up the Tigers’ pass rush. Don’t expect another year near the SEC cellar in sacks.
  • The emergence of Davon Godchaux in 2014 solidified the LSU defense, which had previously looked vulnerable against the run. With Godchaux and fellow starter Christian LaCouture returning, and Quentin Thomas healthy again, the Tigers have a sturdy foundation in the middle of the defense.
  • LSU’s three returning starters on the offensive line provide an anchor for the offense. Vadal Alexander and Jerald Hawkins are locked in at tackles and likely future NFL talents. Meanwhile Ethan Pocic can play virtually any position on the line, allowing LSU to mix and match to find the optimal starting five up front.
  • They may not match the otherworldly skills of the 2013 group, but the receiving corps has the raw talent to be one of the conference’s best. A very young group suffered from some inconsistency at times last season, but another year of polish should help the top-flight ability at this position shine through.
  • Leonard Fournette. Y’all already know.

The case against LSU

The West is wide open again this season. On the plus side, that indicates that there’s no team so dominant it’s considered a shoo-in. On the negative side, the conference schedule is going to be a gauntlet for every team in the division.

But that point can be made for six other teams. Let’s look at some Tiger-specific reasons LSU might fall short of Atlanta this year.

  • Quarterback. This one’s obvious, but until Brandon Harris (or Anthony Jennings, I suppose) shows us that he can win in tough spots in big games against SEC opponents, it’s difficult to fully buy in on the Tigers’ chances this season.
  • Similarly, the questions from last year remain regarding the pass rush and the ability to contain a mobile quarterback. Dak Prescott ran for 105 yards against LSU last year, Nick Marshall ran for 119, and perhaps most painfully, Notre Dame’s Malik Zaire ran for 96 while leading the Irish to a 31-28 win in the Music City Bowl. Faith is strong that the Tigers will patch these holes, but it still needs to be proven. …
  • … which leads us to the new LSU defensive coordinator, Kevin Steele. Though Steele has coached some very good defenses, it’s still difficult for most of us to shake the memory of his Clemson unit getting its doors blown off to the tune of 70 points and 600 total yards in the 2012 Orange Bowl.

The odds

Sportsbook operator CG Technology has the Tigers at 8/1 to win the 2015 title, behind Alabama, Auburn and Georgia, and even with Ole Miss and Tennessee—which is actually not bad at all for a team that lost three of its last four a season ago and doesn’t have a proven quarterback.

Ultimately, that position is what LSU’s chances come down to in 2015. It’s not the only factor of course, but it’s difficult to imagine anything else being as important. It could be argued that every other facet of the team was good enough to win the conference last year—and will be again this season.