Take a look back through the SEC’s Coach of the Year award winners and you’ll find a mix of leaders whose teams made surprise runs to the top of the conference, dominated the field or a combination of the two.

This year, one coach meets that criteria and then some: Mississippi State’s Dan Mullen.

Before the season, few picked Mississippi State to finish anywhere better than the middle of the pack in the SEC West, and certainly none expected them to make a run at the inaugural College Football Playoffs. Sure enough, though, he has the Bulldogs at the precipice of a playoff berth and still in contention for the SEC West title.

Even if Mississippi State misses the playoffs and a spot in the SEC Championship game, this season has been a rousing success, and much of that falls on Mullen. The offensive system he’s installed and carefully cultivated over the last six seasons finally blossomed this year, resulting in one of the most potent offenses in the country.

The leap Mississippi State has made from a year ago is huge as well. The Bulldogs were ninth in the SEC in total offense and 10th in scoring in 2013; this year, they are first and second, respectively, in those categories.

Mullen has lived up to his reputation as a quarterbacks guru, helping lead Dak Prescott to stardom and Heisman candidacy. While Prescott’s a longshot to win the award, he’ll be the first Mississippi State player to even receive votes for it since the 1940s and will be there representing the school in New York.

Overachieving is a big part of winning the award — just look at last year’s winner, Gus Malzahn, whose Auburn Tigers came out of nowhere to win the SEC — and Mullen has done that in spades. He’s taken a group of players overlooked by most of the country and molded them into elite.

None of Mullen’s recruiting classes from 2011-14, the players currently on the roster, have ranked higher than No. 25 in the nation. But here the Bulldogs are, ranked No. 4 in the country heading into the last weekend of the regular season.

Like it or not, narratives play a role in many national awards. The fact that Mullen has taken a team full of overlooked prospects and has molded them into one of the best teams in the country, with a starting 22 good enough to compete with anyone despite the lack of five-star recruits, will no doubt weigh heavy for the voters.

On top of that, he’s led Mississippi State to its best season in more than 70 years. For a team that frankly hasn’t inspired much emotion from any fans outside of the Magnolia State for much of its history, Mullen has an exciting team that actually has people talking about the Bulldogs, and for good reason.

Mullen’s actual coaching performance and the storylines surrounding his team’s performance put him in prime position to win the SEC’s award. The conference is filled with deserving candidates, but the confluence of events surrounding Mullen will hand him the trophy.