Ole Miss fans are expecting more than a pretty good season. Despite losing three players to the first round of the NFL Draft, 2016 has shaped up as one of the most anticipated seasons in school history.

ESPN’s Football Power Index is doing its part to quell those high hopes. Only California and Southern Cal have a tougher strength of schedule than the Rebels. According to the FPI, that equates to a pretty minimal chance of winning the SEC.

The FPI projects the Rebels, No. 7 in FPI, to win eight games (8.1) to be exact. Three teams on their schedule are ahead in FPI: Florida State, Alabama and LSU.

Nine wins seems fair, but the ball will likely bounce the Rebels way on one September Saturday, an unexpected FPI win to get to 10 by season’s end.

The index gives the Rebels only a 29.5 percent chance of beating No. 4 Florida State in Orlando. The Seminoles have the country’s top FPI ranking. In fairness, the last time Ole Miss won a game in the state of Florida was 2008. Florida was also ranked No. 4 at the time, and it proved to be a catapult win that propelled the Rebels to back-to-back Cotton Bowls.

A win eight years later in Orlando would catapult the Rebels into the remainder of a brutal September schedule. Two weeks later against No. 1 Alabama (No. 6 in FPI), ESPN gives the Tide a 51.2 percent chance of winning in Oxford.

A third straight win against Alabama, projected with nine wins, would really irritate Alabama. It could also mean Ole Miss makes it to 10 wins, not Alabama, with LSU and Tennessee having still a lot to say about Atlanta.

The only other projected loss is Oct. 22 at LSU, ranked No. 2 in FPI behind only Florida State. It is also the Rebels’ smallest chance of winning, a 26.5 percent shot of getting out of Baton Rouge with a win.

Elsewhere, only Texas A&M is given more than 35 percent chance of beating the Rebels, who are projected to close the regular season with five straight wins. Ole Miss has a 50.6 percent chance of winning there on Nov. 12. A&M (14) and Auburn (17) are the only other games against opponents with a Top 20 FPI ranking.

BIGGER PICTURE

Ole Miss is given a 6.6 percent chance of winning the SEC. Interestingly, only four teams are given better chances: Tennessee, LSU, Alabama and Georgia.

Tennessee (32.5) and LSU (31.5) have better than 30 percent chances to win the conference. Despite its No. 1 ranking, Alabama has a 12.7 percent chance of winning the conference, Georgia 9.4. Ole Miss drops off pretty far from there.

There are toss-up games to be determined by a little thing here or there. And it starts on opening weekend. If Ole Miss can handle Dalvin Cook, a win on Labor Day against the Seminoles dramatically changes the FPI of both teams. It could also send QB Chad Kelly right to the top of the early Heisman ballots.

Another win over Alabama does the same, and being in Oxford makes that more reasonable than some Alabama fans wants to believe. ESPN’s FPI rankings are based on 10,000 simulations. There are about 10 million things that can and will happen in the SEC.