Each week, we’ll take a look at the credible and not-so-credible threats to the SEC’s playoff aspirations, based on the now-retired Homeland Security Advisory System. (Here’s a longer explanation.)

The College Football Playoff selection committee has a whale of a task in front of them this season. Through Week 7, the halfway point of the SEC regular season, there are six undefeated teams. One of them (Marshall) isn’t getting into the playoff. Baylor should be an underdog at Oklahoma on Nov. 8. Ole Miss-Mississippi State and Notre Dame-Florida State are guaranteed to reduce the number of unbeatens.

For context, there were 14 unbeatens through Week 7 last year and 12 in 2012. We’ll have, at maximum, three unbeatens that matter entering the College Football Playoff. But it’s more likely we’ll have zero undefeated teams (outside of Marshall).

All the discussion about what factors the committee will value most seem increasingly relevant.

RELATED: Kirk Herbstreit loves the Magnolia State

Scanning The Good Guys: The Mississippi schools improved to 2-0 against the Alabama schools this season, as Alabama (at Ole Miss) and Auburn (at Mississippi State) both have lost on the road.

Barring a major upset, the Bulldogs and Rebels are one win away from an undefeated Egg Bowl, with the winner representing the SEC West in Atlanta and likely in the College Football Playoff. (Heck, in that scenario, the loser would have a chance to sneak into the four-team field as well.)

Auburn’s loss means the Iron Bowl loser is out of the national championship picture. Even if Auburn and Alabama win out until then, a two-loss team that didn’t play in the SEC championship has no shot.

There are three scenarios for a two-bid SEC. 1) The Egg Bowl features two 11-0 teams. The winner goes to 13-0 in Atlanta and both make the four-team field. 2) The Egg Bowl winner is unbeaten and takes down the SEC Championship, while a one-loss Iron Bowl winner also makes it. 3) A one-loss Georgia team beats an unbeaten Ole Miss or Mississippi State in Atlanta and both make it.

Now for the terrorists.

THREAT LEVEL: SEVERE

Severe risk of terrorist attacks.

Florida State: It’s ironic that the Seminoles make their debut at the top of our threat level chart on the same day FSU vacates its No. 1 overall ranking in the Associated Press poll. But Jameis Winston remains on the field for now. And he’s proven adept at playing well despite off-field distractions. Winston completed 30 of 36 passes against Syracuse and gives the team a chance to win every game in spite of the regression at other positions. If the Seminoles can get past Notre Dame, the remaining schedule isn’t a given, but it’s softer than that of any national contender. It’s starting to look more likely the SEC will have to go through Winston and the Seminoles again.

THREAT LEVEL: HIGH

High risk of terrorist attacks.

Notre Dame: If the Fighting Irish beat FSU, the team immediately becomes the biggest threat to the SEC. No offense to Arizona State and USC, but if Notre Dame can win in Tallahassee, Fla., it can win in your stadiums as well. This team has looked very similar to the one Everett Golson led to slaughter in the national championship two seasons ago. Notre Dame was just good enough against offensively-challenged Stanford, gave up 43 points to a languishing North Carolina team and looked mediocre against Purdue and Syracuse. But the wins keep piling up.

Baylor: The Bears offense beat the Horned Frogs on points in a brutal 12-round decision. Yes, Baylor beat TCU, which beat Oklahoma. That doesn’t mean Baylor’s trip to Norman, Okla., on Nov. 8 will be easy. The Bears get Oklahoma State and Kansas State at home, but those aren’t guaranteed wins, either. But this team is 6-0 in what may be the second-best conference in college football this season. The offense averages a nation-best 52.7 points per game. And if the season ended today, Baylor is in the four-team field. Who wouldn’t want to see the Bears offense against, say, the Ole Miss defense?

Michigan State: The Spartans get Ohio State at home Nov. 8. If the team plays anywhere close to its potential, it will roll through the remainder of its regular-season schedule. Beat the Buckeyes and this is an 11-1 team ranked in the Top 5 headed into the Big Ten championship game. There’s a good chance the committee will weigh Michigan State, a conference champion with a road loss to Oregon early in the year, against a potential second SEC team. And as a playoff team, Michigan State may be more dangerous than last year’s Rose Bowl champions.

THREAT LEVEL: ELEVATED

Significant risk of terrorist attacks.

Oklahoma: For many weeks, the Sooners represented the largest threat to the SEC in the entire country. There’s no shame in losing on the road to TCU, a team that nearly knocked off Baylor and fields one of the most dynamic offenses in the country. (Offensive coordinator Doug Meacham has to be the frontrunner for assistant coach of the year, right?) Oklahoma still has a great chance to win the Big 12 with one loss. Would the lack of a conference championship game hurt the Big 12 in that scenario? OU still is in the mix, but for now, after a ho-hum win against Texas, the Sooners have traffic in front of them.

Oregon: The Ducks offensive line and run defense have been issues all year. Luckily for Oregon, UCLA’s flaws are even bigger. QB Marcus Mariota and company face four consecutive fringe Top 25 teams in the Pac-12, including Stanford. The Cardinals have beaten Oregon in back-to-back seasons. The Ducks seem destined for a second loss, but the team has the name recognition and star power to make waves late in the year if it continues to win.

THREAT LEVEL: GUARDED

General risk of terrorist attacks.

TCU: The Horned Frogs gave up a 21-point fourth-quarter lead to Baylor, nearly knocking off the Big 12’s two top programs in consecutive weeks. Gary Patterson found himself an offensive coordinator as the same offense that’s languished since the program became a power conference member now is averaging 45.8 points per game, third in the country. A brutal third Top 15 opponent in three weeks awaits in Oklahoma State. If TCU wins, it could find itself back in the discussion for a fourth playoff spot by the middle of November.

Ohio State: Most wrote off Urban Meyer’s team when QB Braxton Miller suffered a season-ending injury in August. The Buckeyes affirmed those perceptions by playing a competitive game against Navy to open the season and losing to Virginia Tech at home. Since then, the Miller-less offense has scored 66, 52 and 50 points. Michigan State’s defense isn’t as experienced or talented as it was last season. The Buckeyes are off everyone’s radar, but continued dominance plus a road win against the Spartans would get OSU back into the playoff conversation.

THREAT LEVEL: LOW

Low risk of terrorist attacks.

Texas Tech: Since Kliff Kingsbury’s 7-0 start as a head coach, the Red Raiders are 3-9 and pining for the Mike Leach days. The team has one of the 10 worst defenses in all of college football based on points per game allowed (39.5), yet Texas Tech (2-4, 0-3) hasn’t been able to leverage its proven offensive system, ranking just 67th in college football in points per game (30.3). Giving up nearly 10 points more than you allow with No. 12 TCU, No. 11 Oklahoma and No. 4 Baylor left on the schedule doesn’t bode well. Kingsbury may be one of the quickest flameouts in college football history.

Idaho: The Vandals are one of three winless FBS teams. Worse, Idaho has lost to four Sun Belt schools and two MAC schools. Translation: it hasn’t gotten any nice paychecks for taking those whippings. Luckily, it gets a dreadful New Mexico State team at home this week. Arkansas State and San Diego State are the toughest remaining games and the pass offense is 15th in the country. How bad could it get, right?

Kent State: UMass (1-6) has lost to Vanderbilt and Colorado, among other teams. Yet the Minutemen managed to go on the road and thrash the Golden Flashes, 40-17. Kent State (0-6) may be the worst of a wretched MAC bottom rung that includes Miami (Ohio) (1-5), Ball State (1-5) and Eastern Michigan (2-4).

SMU: The job vacated by June Jones is widely coveted, according to media reports. That’s hard to imagine in a vacuum, as the Mustangs rank last in the country in points scored (7.2 per game) and points allowed (49.4 per game). On the bright side, the team’s fans have witnessed some entertaining football, hosting Top 25 teams Texas A&M and TCU and traveling to Top 25 teams Baylor and East Carolina.