Heisman Watch: My Top 3, who's rising, who's falling after Week 4

It’s always dangerous to declare a Heisman Trophy winner this early in the season, which is what we tried to do last year.

After three consecutive 200-yard performances from Weeks 3-5, LSU running back Leonard Fournette was all but handed the award in 2015. In just four games up until that point, he’d already scored 11 touchdowns.

But then Fournette ran into a brick wall in Week 10 at Alabama, rushing for only 31 yards on 19 carries. There seemed to be a bit of a hangover effect the next week against Arkansas, as he was held under the century mark a second consecutive game. Fast forward to December, and he wasn’t even in New York as a finalist.

That’s where we are in 2016 with Louisville quarterback Lamar Jackson, who is setting the world afire on a weekly basis. Does he have a Secretariat-style lead at this juncture? Indeed he does, but so did Fournette last season.

Here’s how I’m handicapping the Heisman race thus far. The three names at the top remain the same, although there’s some activity among the risers and fallers.

top 3

1. Louisville QB Lamar Jackson

Week 4: 24-44-417-5-1 passing, 12-62-2 rushing

2016: 74-126-1330-13-3 passing, 61-526-12 rushing

I don’t know who’s going to stop this young man. Both throwing and running, he can do whatever he wants no matter the opponent.

Through four games, Jackson is 12th in the country with 332.5 yards passing per game. On top of that, he’s also eighth nationally with 131.5 yards rushing per game. To be honest, I’m not sure which is more impressive.

The Cardinals travel to Clemson this week. It remains to be seen if he can outshine the preseason Heisman favorite, Deshaun Watson.

2. Stanford RB Christian McCaffrey

Week 4: 26-138-0 rushing, 2-13-0 receiving, 1-14-0 kick returns

2016: 79-436-3 rushing, 12-119-1 receiving, 2-16-0 punt returns, 3-64-0 kickoff returns

Even if McCaffrey didn’t produce a lot of big plays in Week 4 at UCLA, he still went way over triple digits on the ground. Credit the Bruins for keeping him relatively in check as a receiver and on special teams.

Credit: Kelvin Kuo-USA TODAY Sports

He’s hurt by another late kickoff on the West Coast, of course, but McCaffrey will take center stage when the Cardinal travel to Washington in Week 5.

3. Ohio State QB J.T. Barrett

Week 4: bye

2016: 49-73-650-10-1 passing, 39-159-3 rushing

Fresh off a bye week, Barrett should put up Heisman-worthy numbers against his next two opponents, Rutgers and Indiana. Each is at home, too.

Quarterbacks from teams in the hunt for a national championship will always get a bump when it’s time to talk postseason awards. Perhaps a year ahead of schedule, Barrett has all that young talent at Ohio State exceeding expectations already.

With his ability to rack up stats through the air and on the ground in this offense, he’s a weekly threat for 300 yards passing or 100 yards rushing. Maybe even both.

on the rise

Florida State RB Dalvin Cook

After a bit of a slow start this season, Cook exploded in Week 4 with 267 yards rushing at South Florida. That was a yard better than his previous career high of 266, which also came against the Bulls last year.

While quarterback Deondre Francois got all of the headlines early, this is still Cook’s team. He’s ready to tear up the ACC slate.

Texas A&M QB Trevor Knight

From a pure statistical perspective, Knight has been average at best in College Station. But the Aggies are 4-0 and legitimate contenders in the SEC West, plus he’s made a lot of big plays in crucial moments thus far.

Credit: Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports

Voters love a winner, and right now Knight is proving to be just that. If he can beat Tennessee in Week 6 and Alabama in Week 8, watch out.

Virginia Tech QB Jerod Evans

Very quietly, Evans is fourth in the nation in passer efficiency rating, as he has completed 67 percent of his throws and put together a TD-to-INT ratio of 13-to-1. He’s added 209 yards on the ground in four games,too.

SEC fans probably only saw him in the Battle at Bristol, when the Hokies lost to Tennessee, but Evans was an admirable 20-of-28 in that game.

falling fast

Notre Dame QB DeShone Kizer

There’s serious trouble in South Bend, where the Fighting Irish have lost consecutive games to Michigan State and Duke. The Spartans? Sure. But the Blue Devils? Nobody saw that coming, especially at Notre Dame Stadium.

Kizer threw for 381 yards against the Dukies, so he doesn’t deserve much blame for the defeat, but QBs on 1-3 teams don’t contend for the Heisman.

Tennessee RB Jalen Hurd

A lot of fans in Knoxville figured if the Volunteers were going to have a Heisman candidate this season, it wouldn’t be quarterback Joshua Dobbs. It would be Hurd. The 6-foot-4, 240-pounder has flashed here and there, but he’s also disappeared at times.

Credit: Randy Sartin-USA TODAY Sports

Hurd has only crossed the century mark once in four games and averages a paltry 4 yards per carry, although he’s been forced to run behind a porous offensive line.

California QB Davis Webb

While Webb has thrown for at least 396 yards in every game this season and gone as high as 522, voters have been conditioned to shrug off box scores from these defense-optional games in the Pac-12. It’s glorified flag football at times.

Plus, the Bears are only 2-2 on the season. Webb has been responsible for 5 interceptions in those two losses, which is simply too many.

John Crist is the senior writer for Saturday Down South, a member of the FWAA and a voter for the Heisman Trophy. Send him an e-mail, like him on Facebook or follow him on Twitter.