Now that finalists are set, here's who's going to win Heisman Trophy
There are five finalists going to New York for the Heisman Trophy ceremony, although only one will return home carrying the bronze.
The quintet was announced Monday, and they are Louisville quarterback Lamar Jackson, Clemson quarterback Deshaun Watson, Oklahoma quarterback Baker Mayfield, Oklahoma receiver Dede Westbrook and Michigan linebacker Jabrill Peppers.
Once the Cardinals tore then-No. 2 Florida State limb from limb back in Week 3, Jackson — he threw for 216 yards, ran for 146 more and accounted for 5 touchdowns in the victory — shot to the top of most everyone’s list. However, he finished the season on a two-game losing skid and brought himself back to the field to some degree.
Did any of the other candidates demand to be placed atop voters’ ballots with standout performances down the stretch? Not necessarily, but attention spans tend to be short in college football. Jackson’s November was far from memorable, too.
Aside from Jackson, let’s break down the other four finalists to see if any of them can make a convincing argument for the award.
The case for Watson
A repeat finalist from a year ago, Watson was third behind Alabama running back Derrick Henry and Stanford running back Christian McCaffrey.
Needless to say, Watson (below) put up huge numbers. He completed 67.6 percent of his passes with a TD-to-INT ratio of 37-to-15, plus he ran for an additional 529 yards and 6 scores. Clemson is going back to the College Football Playoff, as well.
Credit: Logan Bowles-USA TODAY Sports
That being said, Watson’s passing statistics are essentially identical to a year ago, not to mention the fact that his rushing stats — he ran for 1,105 yards in 2015 — have essentially been cut in half. It’s also difficult to ignore his 15 INTs, as only Purdue’s David Blough (21) and Indiana’s Richard Lagow (16) have thrown more.
There are three QBs in the ACC alone with a better efficiency rating. Watson’s path just didn’t feel very Heisman-like.
The case for Mayfield
While he didn’t get invited to the Big Apple last season, Mayfield ended up fourth in the voting and placed first on 34 ballots.
He fell off the radar early in the schedule, as Oklahoma disappointed with a 1-2 start before opening conference play in the Big 12. But Mayfield led the Sooners to nine straight victories the rest of the way and won the league.
Like Watson, Mayfield’s numbers through the air were on par with what he did this past year. He hit on 71.2 percent of his passes with 38 touchdowns — he threw at least 2 in every game, including 7 at Texas Tech — against only 8 picks. He finished the campaign as America’s most efficient passer by a healthy margin.
Nevertheless, even Mayfield admitted that Westbrook was more worthy of a Heisman nod. The pair will split regional votes, naturally.
The case for Westbrook
While a wideout hasn’t captured the stiffarm since Michigan’s Desmond Howard in 1991, Westbrook did put together a pretty magical 2016.
With 74 receptions for 1,465 yards and 16 touchdowns, Westbrook finished second and tied for second, respectively, in the latter two categories among players from the Power 5. He once had a stretch of four games with multiple TD catches.
Playing in the shadow of Sterling Shepard last year, Oklahoma’s rise this season coincided with Mayfield deciding on Westbrook as his primary option. When the Sooners started 1-2, he topped out at 70 yards receiving in those three contests. But over the course of their nine-game win streak, he hit triple digits eight times.
Even though Westbrook’s stats dwarf Howard’s from a quarter century ago, it’s a different game now. He never had a true Heisman moment.
The case for Peppers
More love for the Wolverines: The only Heisman winner to primarily play on the defensive side of the ball was Charles Woodson in 1997.
Like Woodson, Peppers was much more than a difference maker on defense for Big Blue. He contributed offensively with 27 carries for 167 yards and 3 touchdowns, plus he was also an ace return man on special teams.
Credit: Joe Maiorana-USA TODAY Sports
A hybrid defender, part linebacker and part defensive back, Peppers (above) was second on the team with 71 tackles. Most impressive, 15.0 of them were behind the line of scrimmage, which tied for fourth in the Big Ten. However, unlike Woodson, he didn’t have sticky hands in coverage. Peppers was credited with only 1 interception. Woodson had 7.
Woodson’s candidacy got stronger, but Peppers faded late. In his last three outings, including two defeats, he ran for just 17 yards on 10 attempts.
And the winner is …
The Heisman Trophy is designed to recognize the most outstanding player in the country, not the one that closed the strongest.
True, Louisville ultimately fell from sexy Final Four contender to flawed Citrus Bowl invitee. But aside from being upset by Kentucky in the finale, when he turned it over four times, Jackson didn’t have much to do with his club’s collapse.
He nearly pulled a rabbit out of his hat at Clemson — maybe the best game of the year — with 295 yards passing, 162 more rushing and 3 total touchdowns. While Jackson did fire an INT, Watson got picked off three times and also lost a fumble. Don’t let the final score fool you into thinking Watson was better than Jackson that night.
When you look at the totality of what Jackson has done this season, he’s the only reasonable choice. He had four 300-yard passing games, two of them over 400. He had eight 100-yard rushing games, five of them over 150.
Lamar Jackson jumps over a Syracuse defender and into the endzone. Leads No. 13 Louisville past Syracuse, 62-28 pic.twitter.com/1fvTe8uMV3
— Norah O. AlOmair (@NorahAlOmair) September 10, 2016
Nobody delivered more “Wow!” than Jackson, especially that ludicrous leap over a helpless Syracuse defender. That, my friends, is a Heisman moment.
John Crist is the senior writer for Saturday Down South, a member of the FWAA and a voter for the Heisman Trophy. Send him an e-mail, like him on Facebook or follow him on Twitter.
