Assessing the CFP threat level: FSU, Oregon on collision course with SEC
Each week, we’ll take a look at the credible and not-so-credible threats to the SEC’s playoff aspirations, based on the now-retired Homeland Security Advisory System. (Here’s a longer explanation.)
Lay out a scale ranking scenarios from least beneficial for the SEC to most beneficial before the season, and we’re in the 95th percentile heading toward late October. It’s hard to foresee a realistic scenario where the first part of the season could’ve gone any better.
There’s just one power conference unbeaten outside the SEC, and as many as four SEC teams could be in contention for the national championship entering the final weekend of the league’s regular season in November. (Either four SEC West teams or three plus Georgia, with Auburn falling out.)
A myriad of one-loss teams have an excellent chance to impress the committee, though, and could even get into the four-team playoff field ahead of a second SEC team with just one loss. That includes one-loss conference champions from the Big 12, Big Ten and Pac-12. But it’s barely Oct. 19, and the likelihood of three losses between those three champions looks more and more slim.
At some point, it seems likely the upset rate will decline. But even so, assuming there’s a realistic second playoff contender in the SEC, the conference only needs a few more games to break the right direction to make a difficult-to-ignore argument for an extra bid.
RELATED: Two SEC West teams in Herbstreit’s top four
Scanning The Good Guys: Don’t call it a four-team race yet.
Alabama stole the weekend by demoralizing Texas A&M. But Georgia showed the nation that the SEC West isn’t invincible, and kept the SEC East viable in the College Football Playoff in the process. Ole Miss handled business, while Mississippi State and Auburn rested.
Those are your five contenders out of the SEC on a national level. In the East, Missouri has one conference loss and remains in contention for the SEC championship, but with two losses isn’t a factor nationally.
Now for the terrorists.
THREAT LEVEL: SEVERE
Severe risk of terrorist attacks.
Florida State: The Seminoles have resembled last year’s national championship team since falling behind big to North Carolina State in the first half Sept. 27. Jameis Winston may yet become a Heisman Trophy finalist in spite of everything, and barring a drastic change, it looks like FSU will elect to keep him eligible. The team came within a controversial penalty of a loss late Saturday night to a Top 10 Notre Dame team. FSU still must travel to Louisville, which boasts a tremendous defense, and face a semi-decent opponent in the ACC championship, but Jimbo Fisher’s team has passed the crux and is on a downhill path to a playoff berth.
Oregon: So much for the Ducks looking vulnerable. This team still needs to exercise its Stanford demons — which I expect it will — but improved health on the offensive line has returned QB Marcus Mariota to the co-most dangerous player in college football, along with Winston. With continued health, this offense is good enough mask flaws and outscore any opponent, as we saw in consecutive impressive wins against UCLA and Washington. If you’ve missed the last two weeks, Oregon is back. The remaining schedule doesn’t look quite as daunting either, though traveling to Utah could be tricky and the Pac-12 championship represents a tall final hurdle. But a one-loss Oregon team as the Pac-12 champion would be very difficult to exclude.
THREAT LEVEL: HIGH
High risk of terrorist attacks.
Michigan State: The Spartans have a lot of things working in their favor right now. The road loss to Oregon early in the year is holding up much better than we thought it might as of two weeks ago. The win against Nebraska looks strong, especially as the Cornhuskers continue to play with just one loss. The game against Ohio State is becoming juicy and should be well-hyped nationally. Toss in a modest schedule after the game against the Buckeyes and a potential Big Ten championship win against a Top 25 team and Michigan State’s resume looks plenty strong as a one-loss conference champion. Again, it would be difficult to exclude this team under those circumstances.
Ohio State: Oh boy, Urban Meyer. What a conundrum. When QB Braxton Miller went down, leading to an early-season loss to Virginia Tech, most wrote off the 2014 season for the Buckeyes. The silver lining: Ohio State fans probably would get Miller back for 2015. As Lee Corso would say, not so fast, my friend. Freshman QB J.T. Barrett is one big game against Michigan State from launching the Buckeyes back into playoff contention and himself into the Heisman Trophy conversation. Yes, that’s right. Next year, Meyer may be forced to break his public word and start Barrett over proven fifth-year senior Miller. Barrett’s numbers in the last four games: 20 total TDs, one interception.
Notre Dame: The Fighting Irish nearly sent thousands of SEC fans to bed Saturday with glee. Instead, Winston and nemesis FSU remains unbeaten. But an agonizing road defeat to a potential No. 1 seed in the College Football Playoff isn’t the end. Games against Arizona State, Louisville and USC await. Win out, and Notre Dame is tough to exclude at 11-1. We suspected QB Everett Golson would improve, but the defense is much better than many thought.
THREAT LEVEL: ELEVATED
Significant risk of terrorist attacks.
TCU/Kansas State/Baylor: Listed as just the Big 12 champion, this grouping would be elevated to “high” or even “severe.” I still think a one-loss Big 12 champion is a near-lock for the four-team field. The question is, which team will hold that distinction? Other than an 11-minute stretch against Baylor, TCU would be a Top 5 team, interrupting the SEC West dominance at the top of the polls. But games at West Virginia (bring your fire extinguisher) and against Kansas State await. Any of these three could emerge. The biggest shocker is that the Nov. 8 game between Baylor and Oklahoma in Norman, Okla., won’t determine the conference champion.
Pac-12 South champ: USC is making a strong case as the nation’s best two-loss team (and kicking itself for an early-season flub at Boston College). But Arizona State, Arizona, Utah and UCLA remain in play for the division title, and the first three of those have suffered just one defeat. This is a rich man’s version of the ACC’s Coastal Division — a slightly more elevated game of musical chairs.
Nebraska: There’s a great chance the Cornhuskers will be favored in its remaining five regular-season games. Win out and the team could get a rematch with Michigan State in the conference championship at 11-1. Nebraska and Bo Pelini remain in play nationally even if they’re out of sight, out of mind.
THREAT LEVEL: GUARDED
General risk of terrorist attacks.
East Carolina: Games at Cincinnati and at home against UCF stand between the Pirates and an 11-1 season. The loss against South Carolina is more vexing each week. Beat the free-falling Gamecocks and ECU would be a Top 15 unbeaten right now with a very outside chance to claw into contention assuming complete chaos (I’m talking two-loss conference champions across the board). Instead, East Carolina is in an all-out battle to topple Marshall as the small-conference representative in a New Year’s Six bowl.
Marshall: The Thundering Herd may be the only undefeated team in college football by the end of the season. (Makes you crave an eight-team playoff, doesn’t it? Think about it: the five power conference champions would get automatic bids, followed by the top small-conference team and two at-large bids.) Rakeem Cato is challenging ECU’s Shane Carden for most exciting quarterback you’ve never seen play. But Marshall has no chance of even getting into the conversation as a College Football Playoff team in this system thanks to a laughable schedule.
THREAT LEVEL: LOW
Low risk of terrorist attacks.
SMU: It’s an attractive job. No really, I swear. … What’s that? Yeah, don’t mind our record. June Jones was a lousy recruiter! Come here and you’ll turn into UCF or ECU overnight! (In fairness, the Mustangs are an attractive program, media reports continue to indicate, for perspective up-and-coming coaches. That’s despite giving up at least 41 points in all six games and scoring more than six points just once in an 0-6 start.)
Army: The Black Knights haven’t fared well under new coach Jeff Monken. This weekend, Kent State, previously 0-6, clobbered Army by 22 points. The team already has lost to Wake Forest and Yale, among others. Somehow it stumbled into home wins against Buffalo and Ball State. But despite the nation’s fourth-best rushing offense, a triple-option scheme imported from Georgia Southern, Army gives up 35.9 points per game on defense.
Colorado: The Buffaloes (2-5, 0-4) are worse than Vanderbilt. CU inherited two wins by clipping UMass and catching Hawaii on the mainland. But the team allowed Cody Kessler a school record seven touchdown passes Saturday in a 56-point USC outburst. That’s after allowing 59 in overtime to Cal and 36 in regulation to Oregon State. The Buffs get Washington at home next week before closing against ranked Arizona, Oregon and Utah. Yikes.
Indiana: The team claims a road win at the defending SEC East champions (who incidentally should improve to 6-2 next week) and the NCAA’s leading rusher in Tevin Coleman. But the team is down to its third-team quarterback and fell apart against Michigan State, getting outscored 28-0 in the second half. A loss at Michigan would move the team to 0-4 in the Big Ten and could cost coach Kevin Wilson his job.