Will SEC offenses follow recent trends or look considerably different this season with a variety of new play-callers in the Eastern Division?

The league may be running back-heavy on the surface but quarterback play, as it often does, will determine the SEC’s overall strength in terms of production.

From a team standpoint based on offensive philosophy, it’s easy to surmise Texas A&M, Mississippi State and Alabama will be at the top of the conference in passing offense — perhaps in that exact order — this fall.

Kevin Sumlin’s Air Raid has been the league’s most prolific passing attack since the Aggies entered the SEC in 2012 and with returning second-half starter Kyle Allen surrounded by a bunch of elite-level weapons, that’s likely not going to change.

Looking at the SEC across the board, here’s how we project team production in several major offensive categories. In no way is this indicative of our projected division finish or game-by-game predictions (revealed in August):

Passing offense

Perhaps the fourth time’s a charm for the Aggies? Picking up first downs and yards in bunches has never been a problem for Sumlin’s offense through the air (sans LSU). He gutted the Conference USA during his time at Houston and has sliced up SEC secondaries with an average of 325.1 passing yards per game over his first three years in college football’s most competitive conference.

Despite losing Biletnikoff winner and Heisman finalist Amari Cooper, Lane Kiffin’s won’t reinvent the wheel in Tuscaloosa. He’ll unleash Jake Coker or David Cornwell in the pocket and focus heavy on the Crimson Tide’s short passing game since there’s little to no depth in the backfield. Ole Miss is the wild-card here. If the Rebels don’t find some semblance of a running game, projected starter Chad Kelly will drop back to throw more often than not. Only Texas A&M’s attempted more passes than Ole Miss (1327) since the start of the 2012 campaign.

SEC passing offense 2015 projection

  1. Texas A&M — 311.5 YPG
  2. Mississippi State — 289.5 YPG
  3. Alabama — 276.8 YPG
  4. Auburn — 260.1 YPG
  5. Ole Miss — 258.9 YPG

Rushing offense

Unless first-year offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer neglects Georgia’s star-studded backfield, the Bulldogs should lead the SEC in rushing this season thanks to their collection of interchangeable threats. You can go ahead and pencil in Nick Chubb at 1,200 yards or more and the Sony Michel-Keith Marshall combo will go for another 1,200 combined with enough attempts. That leaves a couple hundred yards worth of mop-up duty for Brendan Douglas and A.J. Turman.

At Auburn, Gus Malzahn may utilize a more balanced attack with an accurate passer (he’s a dual-threat too), but the Tigers’ full speed adrenaline rush on offense will continue to eat up yardage between the tackles via the inside read and misdirection. Auburn’s placed fourth or better (first twice) in rushing yards per game every year since Malzahn’s been its playcaller (5 years since 2009).

We’ll place Alabama fifth here due to the Derrick Henry + Kenyan Drake dynamic. If both players can stay healthy, that’s possibly 2,500 yards or more on the ground between the two All-SEC candidates. Henry’s first (and likely only) season as the Crimson Tide’s featured option should be spectacular from a production standpoint.

SEC rushing offense 2015 projection

  1. Georgia — 269.1 YPG
  2. Auburn — 251.2 YPG
  3. Arkansas — 238.9 YPG
  4. LSU — 229.0 YPG
  5. Alabama — 217.4 YPG

Total offense

Armed with several preseason Heisman candidates, this could very well be the ‘Year of the Offense’ in the SEC (Kirby Smart, Jeremy Pruitt and Will Muschamp cringe at the thought). There isn’t much doubt that Jeremy Johnson and Dak Prescott will lead the league in total offense as individuals, but will the supporting cast at both programs be enough to catapult both offenses to the top in yards per game? For Johnson, the answer’s yes. Auburn will give Alabama and Mississippi State a run for their money in terms of total snaps, returning to the break-neck pace posted during the SEC champion 2013 campaign. Expect a wealth of big plays down the field, too.

Mississippi State led the league in this category last fall due in large part to Josh Robinson’s 1,573 yards from scrimmage. He’s gone, but the Bulldogs have several running backs capable of meeting that production void left by one of the league’s most underrated ballcarriers. Prescott will post career-best numbers this fall as a passer.

SEC total offense 2015 projection

  1. Auburn
  2. Georgia
  3. Texas A&M
  4. Alabama
  5. Mississippi State

Scoring offense

The SEC’s leader in total offense has also been tops in points per game three of the last four years, highlighted by Johnny Manziel’s spectacular offensive run through the conference during the 2012-13 seasons. Though not as deadly as Manziel, Johnson has a chance to post similar superhuman numbers with enough offensive possessions this season at Auburn. Watch Johnson’s performances in September as a base point for future production. He’s still a relative unknown to SEC defenses and Malzahn’s possible ace in the hole.

Tennessee seems like the outlier here, but listen up: The Vols will produce a ton of points this fall as a team that hovers in and around the Top 25 throughout the season. Offensive line is the obvious concern heading into August, but if Josh Dobbs is kept upright and given time, he should produce a statistically-worthy fall as a junior. The Jalen Hurd-Alvin Kamara 1-2 punch gives Tennessee options in the run game. We’re expecting a lot out of new OC Mike DeBord here, but he’s been provided with above-average essentials to get the job done.

SEC scoring offense 2015 projection

  1. Auburn
  2. Georgia
  3. Alabama
  4. Texas A&M
  5. Tennessee