Each week, Saturday Down South’s playoff predictor will project which four teams would make the College Football Playoff if the season ended now.

The formula takes into account Vegas national championship odds, offensive and defensive efficiency, analytics, strength of schedule, division standings and the major polls.

The team with the lowest score is the most likely to make the four-team Playoff. (You can find a longer explanation of the formula at the bottom of this post.)

Keep in mind, this is not a projection of where things will be at the end of the season. It’s a projection of where things stand if the season ended today.

Week 3 eliminated seven more teams from Playoff contention, meaning 74 of the 128 FBS programs have no hope this season, while 10 more teams are alive on paper only, like one-loss power conference teams Kentucky, Tennessee and Kansas.

If the season ended today, the top three SEC West teams wouldn’t have played each other. That will resolve itself in the next few weeks. Right now, the SEC winner, Oklahoma, Oregon and Florida State have the easiest path to the Playoff.

THE PLAYOFF TEAMS

1. Alabama

Score: 24

Last Week: No. 1

The Numbers Say: Alabama’s defensive points per possession ranks 11th in the country and the Tide rank No. 7 in Football Outsiders’ FEI metric. But Bama is No. 1 in Vegas and in the Saragrin Ratings.

Bottom Line: The Tide just need to keep winning.

Next Up: at Ole Miss (Oct. 4)

2. Texas A&M

Score: 35.5

Last Week: No. 3

The Numbers Say: The Aggies have one of the most efficient teams in the country, but lag behind in the polls and in Vegas.

Bottom Line: The Aggies won’t finish here without significant improvement on defense. We’ll know more after the game against Arkansas on Saturday.

Next Up: vs. Arkansas.

3. Auburn

Score: 41.5

Last Week: No. 5

The Numbers Say: Auburn’s efficiency is solid, but not anywhere near Alabama or Texas A&M. The Tigers also lose a bit of ground in the human polls.

Bottom Line: The Tigers must navigate a loaded SEC West and even if it does, likely won’t make the Playoff unless it wins the Iron Bowl on the road.

Next Up: vs. Louisiana Tech.

4. Oklahoma

Score: 44.5

Last Week: No. 4

The Numbers Say: The Sooners rank just 29th in the country in offensive efficiency and sit at No. 8 in Football Outsiders’ FEI metric.

Bottom Line: OU looks better equipped to handle the weekly grind than any team in the nation. It’s likely the season comes down to the matchup against Baylor.

Next Up: at TCU.

THE PAT HADENS

These teams are the last ones cut by that (crazy?) College Football Playoff Committee. If the season ended today.

5. Oregon

Score: 54.4

Last: No. 2

The Numbers Say: Oregon’s defensive efficiency (No. 69 in the country) would prevent the team from making the playoffs if the season ended today. The team doesn’t lose much ground anywhere else, ranking No. 2 in the AP poll and analytics.

Bottom Line: The Ducks still are the Pac-12 favorites, but the offensive line and the defense are shaky.

Next Up: vs. Arizona (Thursday).

6. Baylor

Score: 64.5

Last: No. 7

The Numbers Say: The Bears have a killer efficiency, best in the country, but Vegas odds, analytics and the fact that the team hasn’t played a Big 12 game hurt.

Bottom Line: Baylor needs to keep its head down and win games. If it does, it’ll get a shot to launch into the top four against Oklahoma.

Next Up: at Iowa State.

7. Florida State

Score: 68.5

Last: No. 6

The Numbers Say: The Seminoles probably would be in the top two of our predictor if not for a very mediocre efficiency (No. 59 on offense and No. 50 on defense).

Bottom Line: Florida State looks vulnerable, but may not get tested again until mid-October against Notre Dame.

Next Up: at North Carolina State.

8. Notre Dame

Score: 75

Last: No. 9

The Numbers Say: Vegas isn’t optimistic about the Irish, the team’s analytics aren’t as strong as most of the teams in front of them and the human polls nick them. But the team’s efficiency is among the nation’s best.

Bottom Line: The Irish transition to the meat of the schedule next week. We’ll know more then.

Next Up: at Syracuse.

9. Ole Miss

Score: 75.5

Last: No. 10

The Numbers Say: The Rebels are consistent across all the metrics, ranking near 10th, but don’t have any elite numbers.

Bottom Line: The Rebels are fourth in the SEC West pecking order at present, and that’s not including Mississippi State, which looks capable of beating them in the Egg Bowl again.

Next Up: vs. Memphis.

10. Michigan State

Score: 110.5

Last: No. 14

The Numbers Say: Analytics and the nation’s 42nd-best defensive efficiency penalize the Spartans, who also suffer from a 10-point penalty for losing to Oregon and have ground to make up in the human polls.

Bottom Line: Michigan State must continue to develop its defense. The strength of the Big Ten won’t matter if the Spartans can’t handle Nebraska in a few weeks.

Next Up: vs. Wyoming.

THE DAN MARINOS

Strong contenders, still alive, but unlikely to actually win anything.

11. Georgia: 112.5
12. Wisconsin: 119.5
13. Arizona State: 120.5
14. Ohio State: 127.5
15. Mississippi State: 129
16. Stanford: 131.5
17. Nebraska: 139
18. USC: 142.5
19. LSU: 147
20. UCLA: 153.5
21. BYU: 162
22. South Carolina: 166.5
23. Kansas State: 174
24. TCU: 185
25. Duke: 186

THE BRADY HOKES

Good enough to make a mediocre bowl game. Can you say San Diego County Credit Union Poinsettia Bowl?

26. Utah: 190
27. Arizona: 207.5
28. Oklahoma State: 213
29. Louisville: 216.5
30. Pitt: 222
31. Missouri: 223
32. Washington: 224.5
33. Marshall: 225.5
T34. Penn State: 227.5
T34. Oregon State: 227.5
T36. Florida: 241
T36. North Carolina State: 241

THE VANDY JAMES FRANKLINS

The ceiling is limited, but they’re feisty.

38. Georgia Tech: 243.5
39. Iowa: 246.5
40. Arkansas: 258.5
41. Cincinnati: 262.5
42. Maryland: 271
43. Indiana: 273.5
44. Boston College: 281.5

THE DONALD STERLINGS

Only alive on paper.

Count: 10 of 128

Syracuse
Tennessee
Kentucky
Minnesota
California
Illinois
North Carolina
Texas Tech
Rutgers
Kansas

ELIMINATED FROM CONTENTION

These teams will not get a College Football Playoff bid.

Count: 74 of 128

Air Force
Akron
Appalachian State
Arkansas State
Army
Ball State
Boise State
Bowling Green
Buffalo
Central Florida
Central Michigan
Clemson
Colorado
Colorado State
Connecticut
East Carolina
Eastern Michigan
Florida Atlantic
Florida International
Fresno State
Georgia Southern
Georgia State
Hawaii
Houston
Idaho
Iowa State
Kent State
Louisiana-Lafayette
Louisiana Tech
Massachusetts
Memphis
Miami (Fla.)
Miami (Ohio)
Michigan
Middle Tennessee
Navy
Nevada
New Mexico
New Mexico State
Northern Illinois
North Texas
Northwestern
Old Dominion
Ohio
Purdue
Rice
San Diego State
San Jose State
South Alabama
South Florida
Southern Methodist
Southern Miss
Temple
Texas
Texas-San Antonio
Texas State
Toledo
Troy
Tulane
Tulsa
UAB
UCF
UNLV
UTEP
Utah State
Vanderbilt
Virginia
Virginia Tech
Wake Forest
Washington State
Western Kentucky
Western Michigan
West Virginia
Wyoming