Alabama may be the No. 3 team in the country, but with a daunting five-game SEC West schedule still remaining, the Tide are going to have to take better care of the football to stay unbeaten.

The Tide’s minus-three turnover margin ranks 13th in the SEC, ahead of only Vanderbilt. Alabama has committed seven turnovers in just four games, including three lost fumbles and an interception against Florida.

Bama’s secondary intercepted Jeff Driskel twice, its first two picks of the year. Granted, Nick Saban’s team hasn’t had any luck on the turnover front this season — the Tide lost all five offensive fumbles — but Alabama won’t be able to give the ball away four times against Auburn or in a potential SEC Championship and still win.

Texas A&M is another Top 10 team with a surprisingly-low turnover margin at minus-two, while SEC East leader South Carolina also has a negative margin. The Aggies have forced a conference-worst three turnovers this season, while the Gamecocks have only managed four.

Florida has recovered a league-best seven fumbles and forced 12 turnovers in spite of allowing a record amount of yards to the Tide on Saturday.

Georgia has only turned the ball over once in three games, by far the best in the conference, while Vanderbilt’s 11 offensive turnovers more than double every SEC team except Alabama an Mississippi State.

Team Turnover Margin Fumbles Gained Interceptions Turnovers
1. Florida +8 7 5 4
2. Missouri +5 4 5 4
T3. Ole Miss +4 1 8 5
T3. Kentucky +4 4 3 3
T3. Georgia +4 2 3 1
T3. LSU +4 4 4 4
7. Auburn +3 1 6 4
T8. Tennessee +2 3 3 4
T8. Mississippi State +2 3 6 7
T8. Arkansas +2 3 3 4
11. South Carolina -1 1 3 5
12. Texas A&M -2 1 2 5
13. Alabama -3 2 2 7
14. Vanderbilt -6 5 0 11

Numerous analytical studies have proven that recovering fumbles is not a skill. It’s luck. It regresses to the mean. In other words, if your team is recovering fumbles at an unusual rate, it’s likely that it will begin to slide toward 50 percent. The same holds true for a poor fumble recovery rate.

So far, Kentucky (5 of 6) and Florida (7 of 9) have been lucky in terms of recovering fumbles. Alabama (2 of 10) and Auburn (3 of 11) have been unlucky.

LSU has recovered a conference-best 10 fumbles, but its offense has fumbled eight times and retained six.

Missouri and Vanderbilt have forced a league-high nine opponent fumbles. The football has slipped to the ground a league-high 18 times during Vanderbilt’s four games this season.

Meanwhile, South Carolina recovered three of five fumbles against Vanderbilt after failing to recover one in its first three games.

Team Fumble Recovery % Fumbles Opponent Fumbles Recovered
1. Kentucky 83.3% 1 5 5
2. Florida 77.8% 1 8 7
3. LSU 71.4% 8 6 10
T4. Tennessee 62.5% 3 5 5
T4. Georgia 62.5% 4 4 5
6. Missouri 54.5% 2 9 6
T7. Vanderbilt 50.0% 9 9 9
T7. Arkansas 50.0% 5 7 6
T7. Ole Miss 50.0% 3 3 3
10. Mississippi State 38.5% 7 6 5
11. South Carolina 37.5% 4 4 3
12. Texas A&M 33.3% 4 5 3
13. Auburn 27.3% 5 6 3
14. Alabama 20.0% 5 5 2