SEC Week 10 predictions (and bets)

Wow, it’s November already? The final month of the regular season is shaping up to be something pretty nutty in the SEC West, especially if LSU manages to knock off undefeated Alabama on Saturday night. Want chaos? Root for LSU.

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Here are the updated results on the season along with our Week 10 picks.

Results

Texas A&M (-13.5) at Mississippi State

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Michael: These two combined to score over 100 points last week against cupcake competition, so don’t be surprised to see a high-scoring contest this weekend in Starkville. Nick Fitzgerald just played his best game of the season last week, albeit against Samford, and could pose some challenges for an Aggies defense still dealing with lingering injury issues.

While the offense may be putting things together in Starkville, the defense continues to struggle after surrendering an average of 40 points to Kentucky and Samford over the last two games. A&M’s receivers should have a field day with the MSU defensive backs on Saturday. However, if Trevor Knight struggles in the passing game, this one could be much closer than anticipated.

Texas A&M 38, Mississippi State 21

Kevin: Mississippi State’s defense has been so bad at times this year. I don’t see it slowing down the Aggies. Texas A&M should score 40-plus in this game. I think they cover the two-touchdown spread fairly easily.

Texas A&M 45, Mississippi State 17

Florida (-5.5) at Arkansas

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Michael: Arkansas is not nearly as bad of a team as it looked against Auburn two weeks ago. That’s the good news. Unfortunately, Arkansas’ strengths and weaknesses on offense don’t match up well at all in this matchup while going up against what appears to be an elite Gators defense.

The Hogs likely won’t find very much success in the ground game, so it will likely come down to Austin Allen and company to beat Florida’s talented secondary. Tennessee managed to accomplish this, and Arkansas had a great deal of success against defenses just as talented this season, so it’s not out of the realm of possibility. However, a single breakdown up front could be the difference for a huge turnover that decides this game.

At this point, it’s hard to put faith in the Arkansas offensive line (21 sacks allowed) over the Florida defensive line (21 sacks registered).

Florida 28, Arkansas 24

Kevin: Florida’s not a great team, but this matchup reminds me a lot of the Florida-Georgia matchup last week. Georgia has a dynamic QB with very little protection. Sound familiar? Florida’s defense should do very well against Arkansas, and as usual, Austin Allen will be running for his life.

The Hogs’ D isn’t elite, and Florida will be able to do enough on offense to win the game by a touchdown on the road.

Florida 21, Arkansas 14

Georgia (-2.5) at Kentucky

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Michael: How much life does Georgia have in it after dropping four of the last five games? On paper, this game would appear to favor the Bulldogs by a wide margin, but Kentucky may very well be the hottest team in the East right now after winning five of the last six games.

Working in Georgia’s favor in this matchup is the team’s run defense, which rates as the No. 4 unit in the league. When Kentucky struggles to run the ball and has been forced to pass this season, the results have not been pretty on offense.

I look for Jacob Eason to have a bounce back game in Lexington and put up some impressive numbers against an average UK defense. The way these two have been playing lately, this one could come down to the wire.

Georgia 20, Kentucky 17

Kevin: Georgia has lost four of five. Is it near implosion territory or will they bounce back against the Cats? It’s really difficult to predict.

Kentucky has some momentum and should have a great home crowd. I’m going to go with Kentucky in a close one. Get that bowl game, Stoops!

Kentucky 21, Georgia 20

Vanderbilt at Auburn (-25.5)

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Michael: Auburn is playing at an incredibly high level right now and just scored 40 on the road in Oxford, quite the accomplishment considering where the offense was just over a month ago. I’ll be interested to see how effective the Tigers’ offense is against Vandy as this will be the toughest defense Auburn has faced since the Sept. 24 game against LSU. Vandy is also coming off a bye, which should help matters.

Vanderbilt will likely struggle to score points in this game unless quarterback Kyle Shurmur can put up some career numbers on the road. Despite all the hype Auburn’s running game gets, and deservedly so, Ralph Webb may very well be the best running back in the conference. Unfortunately for Webb, he typically gets little to no help from the rest of the Commodores offense.

Auburn 30, Vanderbilt 16

Kevin: It’s a big spread with a Vanderbilt team that is respectable on defense. But in front of a home crowd, I’m going to go with Auburn big. I’ve seen Auburn’s offense break too many big plays to think that this game will be that close.

Plus, with the Playoff rankings out, you know Auburn is going to be extra motivated to keep this train rolling all the way to the Iron Bowl.

Auburn 38, Vanderbilt 10

Missouri at South Carolina (-7)

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Michael: How Tennessee lost to this South Carolina team I may never know. Butch Jones may never live that one down, and it may ultimately lead to the undoing of his program on Rocky Top. Besides that rosy outlook, great win for the Gamecocks. After two weeks, true freshman Jake Bentley appears to be the answer at quarterback with Rico Dowdle the team’s best running back.

Meanwhile in the other Columbia, Missouri appears to be in full-on collapse mode. I keep hearing about Drew Lock’s great arm, but what’s the point of having great arm talent if you have no touch or accuracy? The sophomore looks clearly rattled in the pocket, and playing in front of a rejuvenated South Carolina crowd won’t help matters.

South Carolina 30, Missouri 17

Kevin: Missouri is the worst team in the SEC right now, and South Carolina is less horrible than they were earlier in the year. The Gamecocks have a nice home crowd and are behind the young QB right now. Muschamp wins and covers. A win here gets the Cocks one game away from a bowl game.

South Carolina 24, Missouri 14

Alabama (-7.5) at LSU

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Michael: After some initial (slight) bumps in the road early in the season, Alabama appears to be playing better each and every week en route to another December Atlanta destination. Each and every week, opponents have been waiting for Jalen Hurts to play like a freshman. Credit the staff and the players around him for helping the freshman not show his age. At this point, you have to wonder if Hurts will even be fazed by the Death Valley crowd.

There has been so much talk coming from the LSU players in the two weeks leading up to this game, it’s clear the Tigers don’t lack confidence. Coach Ed Orgeron has said Leonard Fournette has been the most focused he’s ever been during his preparation for the game. While Fournette can’t be expected to do it all himself, the new offensive game plan under Steve Ensminger could very well open the offense just enough to expose LSU’s advantages on the perimeter.

With these two defenses matching up, points very well could be at a premium. A defensive or special teams score could be the difference in this game, and while Alabama has made so many this year, LSU’s units have notched several of their own, too. Look for Alabama to force Danny Etling to win the game. No pressure or anything Danny boy …

Alabama 27, LSU 24

Kevin: On paper, this pick here is easy. Alabama wins a close one. Why? Alabama is better, but these games can often be slugfests and go down to the wire. It’s the obvious pick, right?

Alabama is fantastic, but I feel like we’re forgetting these are still college kids and its QB is a true freshman. Upsets happen for a reason, even to Alabama.

I’m going to go with LSU in a close win here, namely because of the environment being a little too much for Jalen Hurts. Also, LSU’s offensive game plan will be a bit more complex than simply running Leonard Fournette into a brick wall over and over.

I’m picking a win for LSU. Let Playoff chaos ensue. Why not?

LSU 24, Alabama 23