secpr

My way-too-early look at the SEC:
Alabama again, Tennessee over the hump

by John Crist / June 16, 2016

Until further notice, the SEC West belongs to Alabama, which is yet again the defending national champion.

The Crimson Tide are the only team in the land to make the College Football Playoff in its first two years of existence, shaking off a semifinal defeat to eventual champ Ohio State in 2014 to win it all in 2015.

The only legitimate threat to ‘Bama in the division of late is Ole Miss, which has toppled the resident bullies of the West in each of the past two seasons — that’s a first in school history. However, while the Rebels still have premier quarterback Chad Kelly, no program returns fewer starters from a year ago.

Arkansas can’t get over the hump. Auburn has QB issues. LSU is in the middle of a five-game losing streak to the Tide. Mississippi State is a mystery without Dak Prescott. Texas A&M has become the new Turmoil U.

If the division were an epic HBO series, then Big Al would be sitting comfortably on the Iron Throne.

As for the SEC East, seemingly in rebuilding mode since the final days of Phillip Fulmer, this could be the year for Tennessee.

While Florida is the defending champ of the East, exceeding meager expectations in Year 1 under Jim McElwain, the Gators were blown out in each of their final three games. A Year 2 step back is reasonable.

That leaves the door wide open for the Volunteers, who have spectacularly snatched defeat from the jaws of victory at times during the Butch Jones era — the program’s resurrection has hiccupped once or twice as a result. Nevertheless, an experienced roster and a favorable home schedule have the Vols in the driver’s seat.

With three new coaches in the East, from Kirby Smart at Georgia to Barry Odom at Missouri to Will Muschamp at South Carolina, Tennessee has no excuses left. This is the season for Rocky Top’s return to relevance.

Not to mention the fact that the division is much more watered down than the West, which remains loaded.

Here’s my way-too-early forecast for the best conference in America in 2016.

(Note: Returning starters courtesy of Phil Steele. Preseason rankings courtesy of Athlon Sports. Recruiting rankings courtesy of 247Sports.)

John Crist’s
SEC West Projection

1. Alabama Crimson Tide
2. LSU Tigers
3. Ole Miss Rebels
4. Texas A&M Aggies
5. Auburn Tigers
6. Arkansas Razorbacks
7. Mississippi State Bulldogs

1. Alabama

Head coach: Nick Saban (10th season)
2015 record: 14-1 (7-1 SEC)
Returning starters: 11 (6 offense, 5 defense)
Recruiting class: No. 1 (3 5-stars, 14 4-stars)
Preseason ranking: No. 1

Quarterback situation: For the third consecutive season, the Crimson Tide will be breaking in a relatively unknown commodity at the game’s most important position. It worked out just fine the past two times, as Blake Sims got ‘Bama to the College Football Playoff in 2014 and Jake Coker won the national championship this past year. Junior Cooper Bateman is the leading candidate to direct offensive coordinator Lane Kiffin’s balanced attack, although sophomore David Cornwell could threaten for playing time, too.

Offensive outlook: One way or another, the Tide are going to run the football despite the departure of the SEC’s single-season record holder for rushing yards, Derrick Henry. Sophomore Bo Scarbrough is the most likely nominee to be the next dominant ball carrier for the Tide, as he’s in the Henry mold at 6-foot-2 and 230 pounds. Sophomore receiver Calvin Ridley is an explosive playmaker out wide, senior tight end O.J. Howard can be a gamechanger between the hash marks and the blocking up front — with or without embattled junior Cam Robinson — should once again be among the nation’s elite.

Defensive outlook: Few teams have to replace more talent on the defensive side of the football than Alabama, as a pair of first-team All-SEC selections (defensive lineman A’Shawn Robinson, linebacker Reggie Ragland) are off to the NFL. However, two more first-teamers return in senior defensive end Jonathan Allen (below) and senior safety Eddie Jackson. With as well as Saban has recruited cycle after cycle, every four- and five-star vacancy has a potential four- or five-star replacement waiting in the wings.

Nov 14, 2015; Starkville, MS, USA; Mississippi State Bulldogs quarterback Dak Prescott (15) is tackled by Alabama Crimson Tide defensive lineman Jonathan Allen (93) during the third quarter at Davis Wade Stadium. Alabama won 31-6. Mandatory Credit: Matt Bush-USA TODAY Sports

Credit: Matt Bush-USA TODAY Sports

Toughest home game: Auburn (Nov. 26)
Toughest road game: Ole Miss (Sept. 17)
Possible upset alert: Tennessee (Oct. 15 in Knoxville)

2. LSU

Head coach: Les Miles (12th season)
2015 record: 9-3 (5-3 SEC)
Returning starters: 17 (8 offense, 9 defense)
Recruiting class: No. 3 (2 5-stars, 16 4-stars)
Preseason ranking: No. 9

Quarterback situation: Junior Brandon Harris is the unquestioned starter under center, but he’s coming off a campaign that left so many fans of the Tigers wanting more. Of course, with a ball carrier like junior Leonard Fournette in the backfield, the system will most certainly continue to be more of a power running attack. That being said, he shouldn’t have so much trouble making big plays downfield to junior Malachi Dupre and senior Travin Dural at the receiver position considering how often defenses are forced to stack the box.

Offensive outlook: Fournette right, Fournette left, Fournette up the middle — the New Orleans native will once again be a leading contender for the Heisman Trophy and is a threat to crack the magical 2,000-yard plateau on the ground. Nevertheless, unless Harris evolves as a signal caller and completes more than 71 passes combined to Dupre (below) and Dural, then the Bayou Bengals will continue to be too one-dimensional. Alabama completely shut down Fournette in 2015 (19 carries, 31 yards), which in turn hamstrung offensive coordinator Cam Cameron.

Sep 20, 2014; Baton Rouge, LA, USA; LSU Tigers wide receiver Malachi Dupre (15) runs after a catch against the Mississippi State Bulldogs during the first half of a game at Tiger Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Derick E. Hingle-USA TODAY Sports

Credit: Derick E. Hingle-USA TODAY Sports

Defensive outlook: LSU’s most productive defender in terms of total tackles and tackles for loss, linebacker Deion Jones, was a draft pick in April. On the bright side, senior cornerback Tre’Davious White (second-team All-SEC), senior defensive end Lewis Neal (third team) and junior safety Jamal Adams (third team) will all be wearing purple and gold again this fall. Junior Davon Godchaux and sophomore Arden Key augment a defensive line that should be able to rush the passer, plus senior linebacker Kendell Beckwith is one of the conference’s better tacklers.

Toughest home game: Alabama (Nov. 5)
Toughest road game: Florida (Oct. 8)
Possible upset alert: Wisconsin (Sept. 3 in neutral-site Green Bay)

John Crist’s
SEC East Projection

1. Tennessee Volunteers
2. Georgia Bulldogs
3. Florida Gators
4. Kentucky Wildcats
5. Missouri Tigers
6. Vanderbilt Commodores
7. South Carolina Gamecocks

3. Tennessee

Head coach: Butch Jones (4th season)
2015 record: 9-4 (5-3 SEC)
Returning starters: 17 (9 offense, 8 defense)
Recruiting class: No. 14 (10 4-stars)
Preseason ranking: No. 7

Quarterback situation: Senior Joshua Dobbs is far from an accomplished passer, as his career average of 6.5 yards per attempt and touchdown-to-interception ratio of 26-to-17 are rather pedestrian, but his dual-threat ability certainly makes him effective. With the one-two running back punch of juniors Jalen Hurd and Alvin Kamara totaling nearly 2,000 yards and 19 touchdowns on the ground last year, Dobbs (below) added another 671 and 11. But if the Volunteers are truly going to be a high-powered offense, then the passing game must become more consistent.

Jan 1, 2016; Tampa, FL, USA; Tennessee Volunteers quarterback Joshua Dobbs (11) runs the ball in for a touchdown against the Northwestern Wildcats during the second half in the 2016 Outback Bowl at Raymond James Stadium. Tennessee Volunteers defeated the Northwestern Wildcats 45-6. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

Offensive outlook: While Dobbs will be on some preseason watch lists for the Heisman Trophy, the more qualified Vols candidate is Hurd. If the blocking in front of him improves, and his yards-per-carry average — 4.7 as a freshman and sophomore — improves along with it, then the 6-foot-4, 240-pounder can narrow the gap separating him from the likes of Fournette and Georgia’s Nick Chubb. Leading receiver Von Pearson is out of eligibility, but juniors Josh Malone and Josh Smith and sophomores Jauan Jennings and Preston Williams are all back, as is junior tight end Ethan Wolf.

Defensive outlook: Tennessee returns a pair of difference-makers who were second-team All-SEC selections this past season in junior defensive end Derek Barnett and senior linebacker Jalen Reeves-Maybin — Barnett led the team in sacks (10.0), Reeves-Maybin topped the unit in total tackles (105). While the Volunteers only surrendered 20 points per game in 2015, fifth in the conference, comparatively they did allow a lot of yardage. A championship defense doesn’t finish ninth against the run and eighth against the pass.

Toughest home game: Alabama (Oct. 15)
Toughest road game: Georgia (Oct. 1)
Possible upset alert: Virginia Tech (Sept. 10 in neutral-site Bristol)

4. Ole Miss

Head coach: Hugh Freeze (5th season)
2015 record: 10-3 (6-2 SEC)
Returning starters: 10 (5 offense, 5 defense)
Recruiting class: No. 6 (3 5-stars, 12 4-stars)
Preseason ranking: No. 10

Quarterback situation: Full of swag, Kelly is coming off a record-breaking season in Oxford that could have sent him off to the pros a year early. A lot of his offensive teammates have since left the Magnolia State, most notably left tackle Laremy Tunsil and receiver Laquon Treadwell — both first-round draft choices — but Kelly has as much pure arm skill as any passer in the SEC. He’ll simply have to do it all over again with a radically different cast of blockers, ball carriers and pass catchers.

Offensive outlook: With Tunsil and fellow bookend Fahn Cooper getting paid to play now (insert joke here with regard to the use of the word “now”), the current depth chart up front features just one senior, three sophomores and a freshman. That freshman, luckily, is five-star signee Gregory Little, who was the No. 1 prospect in the country at his position and could possibly be lights out like Tunsil was. Even if the receiving corps is in rebuilding mode after the losses of Treadwell and Cody Core, Kelly’s mere presence makes the aerial attack dangerous.

Defensive outlook: Defensive tackle Robert Nkemdiche may have been hit or miss depending on what tape you were watching, but he was a major force and isn’t replaced so easily. Departed safeties Trae Elston (first team) and Mike Hilton (second team) were All-SEC honorees in 2015, but so was junior defensive end Marquis Haynes (second team), who had 10.0 sacks. Junior linebacker Demarquis Gates returns as the unit’s leading stopper, although he’s going to have to do better than 2.0 tackles for loss in order to be a difference maker.

Toughest home game: Alabama (Sept. 17)
Toughest road game: LSU (Oct. 22)
Possible upset alert: Georgia Southern (Nov. 5 in Oxford)

5. Texas A&M

Head coach: Kevin Sumlin (5th season)
2015 record: 8-5 (4-4 SEC)
Returning starters: 13 (6 offense, 7 defense)
Recruiting class: No. 19 (8 4-stars)
Preseason ranking: N/A

Quarterback situation: The QB meeting room in College Station needs to have a turnstile installed based on all the comings and goings, as Kyle Allen and Kyler Murray both transferred after sharing the starting job this past season — Tate Martell, a five-star recuit for 2017, dumped the Aggies shortly thereafter and just committed to Ohio State. But senior Trevor Knight, the former starter at Oklahoma and one-time Saban slayer, transferred in and won the job during spring ball. He’s ready to prove himself again after falling out of favor with the Sooners.

Offensive outlook: Knight will have an enviable array of wideouts to throw to, as senior Josh Reynolds, juniors Ricky Seals-Jones and Speedy Noil and sophomore Christian Kirk might make up the deepest unit in the conference. Kirk in particular is a superstar, recording 80 catches for 1,009 yards and 7 touchdowns as a freshman last year, not to mention a 24.4-yard average returning punts. Senior Avery Gennesy and sophomore Koda Martin have big shoes to fill at left and right tackle, respectively, what with Texas A&M being a breeding ground for NFL-caliber bookends recently.

Defensive outlook: Perhaps the single most terrifying defender in all of college football, junior pass rusher Myles Garrett will be in the conversation for No. 1 overall once the 2017 draft arrives. The 6-foot-5, 262-pounder was credited with 11.5 sacks and 19.5 tackles for loss, even with every opposing offensive coordinator specifically scheming against him. Beyond Garrett, senior defensive lineman Daeshon Hall and junior defensive back Donovan Wilson were third-team All-SEC picks a season ago.

Toughest home game: UCLA (Sept. 3)
Toughest road game: Alabama (Oct. 22)
Possible upset alert: South Carolina (Oct. 1 in Columbia)

6. Georgia

Head coach: Kirby Smart (1st season)
2015 record: 10-3 (5-3 SEC)
Returning starters: 14 (8 offense, 6 defense)
Recruiting class: No. 7 (3 5-stars, 10 4-stars)
Preseason ranking: No. 16

Quarterback situation: Rarely is a returning starter at the game’s most important position greeted with so many eye rolls, but that’s the case in Athens with senior Greyson Lambert. Even though the Virginia transfer only threw 2 interceptions in 256 attempts last year, former coach Mark Richt — now down at Miami, his alma mater — exhibited less and less confidence in his aerial attack as the season progressed. Five-star freshman Jacob Eason (below), one of the more celebrated recruits in the country for the class of 2016, is oozing with arm talent and has between-the-hedges fans foaming at the mouth.

Apr 16, 2016; Athens, GA, USA; Georgia Bulldogs quarterback Jacob Eason (10) throws before the spring game at Sanford Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports

Credit: Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports

Offensive outlook: The Bulldogs seem to always have an NFL-caliber ball carrier in the backfield, but the aforementioned Chubb, a junior, is a special player. He was on the short list of Heisman contenders in 2015 before suffering a devastating knee injury against Tennessee, and although fellow junior Sony Michel ran for 1,136 yards himself this past season, Chubb averaged an astonishing 8.1 yards per attempt prior to exiting. No matter if Lambert or Eason is at the controls, an unsteady receiving corps needs to improve dramatically with No. 1 option Malcolm Mitchell now in the pros.

Defensive outlook: UGA has to replace a pair of All-SEC performers from a year ago, as linebackers Leonard Floyd (second team) and Jake Ganus (third team) are gone. On a positive note, Dominick Sanders, a ball-magnet junior safety and a second-team all-conference pick, is back after 6 interceptions, 205 yards in returns and a TD in 2015. The top two pass rushers from last year, Floyd and linebacker Jordan Jenkins, are a memory, but Smart was Saban’s defensive coordinator for eight seasons at Alabama and has plenty of tricks up his sleeve. Getting junior linebacker Lorenzo Carter to play like his first-round draft projection is a good place to start.

Toughest home game: Tennessee (Oct. 1)
Toughest road game: Ole Miss (Sept. 24)
Possible upset alert: North Carolina (Sept. 3 in neutral-site Atlanta)

7. Florida

Head coach: Jim McElwain (2nd season)
2015 record: 10-4 (7-1 SEC)
Returning starters: 12 (6 offense, 6 defense)
Recruiting class: No. 13 (9 4-stars)
Preseason ranking: No. 20

Quarterback situation: The Gators thought they had finally settled their QB situation with Will Grier, who got off to a sensational start in 2015, but he was popped for performance-enhancing drugs, subsequently suspended by the NCAA and transferred as a result. To put it kindly, replacement Treon Harris wasn’t up to the task, as UF’s passing game was an utter embarrassment by year’s end. Four new names are in the mix, transfers Luke Del Rio and Austin Appleby and freshmen Feleipe Franks and Kyle Trask, with the well-traveled Del Rio currently leading the field.

Offensive outlook: Despite the aerial attack struggling so mightily last season, wideouts Antonio Callaway and Demarcus Robinson and tight end Jake McGee were all quality targets — Callaway is presently suspended, while Robinson and McGee are in the NFL. As for the running game, with Kelvin Taylor heading to the league early, sophomores Jordan Scarlett and Jordan Cronkrite both must take a giant step forward in Year 2. Adding JUCO standout Mark Thompson to the backfield was big, and not just because he is 6-foot-2 and 242 pounds. The offensive line, which has been a concern for a while now, doesn’t have a single senior on the two-deep.

Defensive outlook: Florida put four defenders on the first-team All-SEC squad a year ago (lineman Jonathan Bullard, linebacker Antonio Morrison and cornerbacks Vernon Hargreaves III and Jalen Tabor), but Tabor, a junior, is the only one to return for 2016. Some scouts like Tabor more than Hargreaves, who just went 11th overall in April’s draft, plus he will be joined in the secondary again by senior safety Marcus Maye (second-team all-conference). A pass-rushing void must be replaced with Bullard and Alex McCalister gone, but sophomore defensive end Cece Jefferson flashed some big-time ability last season right out of high school.

Toughest home game: LSU (Oct. 8)
Toughest road game: Florida State (Nov. 26)
Possible upset alert: South Carolina (Nov. 12 in Gainesville)

8. Auburn

Head coach: Gus Malzahn (4th season)
2015 record: 7-6 (2-6 SEC)
Returning starters: 12 (6 offense, 6 defense)
Recruiting class: No. 9 (1 5-star, 11 4-stars)
Preseason ranking: N/A

Quarterback situation: Senior Jeremy Johnson, so brilliant in limited action backing up Nick Marshall previously, was a disaster more often than not when finally anointed the starter in 2015. Malzahn was forced to go to the bullpen and call upon sophomore Sean White, and while he proved to be a better passer than Johnson and tough as nails in the face of pressure, he simply doesn’t seem like a good fit for Malzahn’s scheme. However, junior-college transfer John Franklin III — originally a Florida State signee out of high school — could end up being Marshall 2.0 as both a runner and a passer.

Offensive outlook: With running back Peyton Barber somewhat unexpectedly declaring early for the NFL Draft, the backfield is even more unstable with the transfer of junior Roc Thomas to Jacksonville State. Senior Jovon Robinson (below) will have an opportunity to be the bell cow in Malzahn’s offense, which is programmed at a frenetic pace and requires its ball carriers to go on pure heart at times. Ricardo Louis, Melvin Ray and D’haquille Williams are gone from the receiving corps, although freshman Nate Craig-Myers was a big-time recruit and could shine right away.

Nov 28, 2015; Auburn, AL, USA; Auburn Tigers running back Jovon Robinson (29) carries the ball past Alabama Crimson Tide linebacker Reggie Ragland (19) and Reuben Foster (10) at Jordan Hare Stadium. Mandatory Credit: RVR Photos-USA TODAY Sports

Credit: RVR Photos-USA TODAY Sports

Defensive outlook: The Tigers only had one defender make All-SEC this past season, with senior safety Johnathan Ford earning a third-team nod. While Ford led the squad with an impressive 118 total tackles, that’s not necessarily a good thing when a defensive back is racking up so many stops. With Will Muschamp departing The Plains after just one season to take the top job at South Carolina, the much-traveled Kevin Steele is the new defensive coordinator and inherits a depth chart long on potential but short on production.

Toughest home game: Clemson (Sept. 3)
Toughest road game: Alabama (Nov. 26)
Possible upset alert: Vanderbilt (Nov. 19 in Auburn)

9. Arkansas

Head coach: Bret Bielema (4th season)
2015 record: 8-5 (5-3 SEC)
Returning starters: 14 (5 offense, 9 defense)
Recruiting class: No. 26 (1 5-star, 5 4-stars)
Preseason ranking: N/A

Quarterback situation: Gone is Brandon Allen, who completed 65.9 percent of his passes and assembled a 30-to-8 touchdown-to-interception ratio within the confines of what is typically a run-heavy system. Junior Austin Allen — yes, that’s Brandon Allen’s little brother — managed to stay atop the depth chart in spring practice despite the presence of USC transfer Ricky Town. It’s no secret that the younger Allen isn’t quite as gifted physically when compared to his older sibling, but surely he won’t be asked to carry the load offensively nearly as much.

Offensive outlook: Expect Bielema to revert back to more of a traditional ground-and-pound approach, even though he’ll have to do so without the services of NFL-bound running backs Jonathan Williams and Alex Collins. Senior Kody Walker and sophomore Rawleigh Williams III averaged 4.4 and 4.5 yards per carry, respectively, in limited action a year ago, so look for their workload to increase significantly. A breakout star could be senior tight end Jeremy Sprinkle, who has been overshadowed by the presence of second-round pick Hunter Henry.

Defensive outlook: The Razorbacks had two defenders make third-team All-SEC in 2015, and each returns for this coming season. Senior defensive end Deatrich Wise Jr. led the way with 8.0 sacks and 10.5 tackles for loss, while senior linebacker Brooks Ellis paced the unit with 102 total tackles. The Hogs simply must play better on the back end, as they finished 118th in the country in passing yards allowed per game (275.2) and only two players picked off more than one pass all season long.

Toughest home game: Alabama (Oct. 8)
Toughest road game: TCU (Sept. 10)
Possible upset alert: Louisiana Tech (Sept. 3 in Fayetteville)

10. Kentucky

Head coach: Mark Stoops (4th season)
2015 record: 5-7 (2-6 SEC)
Returning starters: 14 (9 offense, 5 defense)
Recruiting class: No. 35 (3 4-stars)
Preseason ranking: N/A

Quarterback situation: Patrick Towles, a former high school player of the year in the Bluegrass State, was supposed to be the long-term solution under center, but he got benched this past season due to a poor completion percentage (56.1) and a negative TD-to-INT ratio (9-to-14). After the season, he transferred. Enter sophomore Drew Barker, another one-time prep player of the year in Kentucky who turned down scholarship offers from sexier programs. His numbers in limited action (35-of-70, 364 yards, 1 TD, 2 INTs) weren’t impressive, but the upside is there.

Offensive outlook: Junior running back Stanley “Boom” Williams is coming off a terrific campaign, rushing for 855 yards on just 121 attempts to earn third-team All-SEC honors. He’ll be expected to carry the load once again with Barker still in the embryonic stage of his career. Both Barker and Williams need the blocking up front to mature in a hurry, as junior center Jon Toth will most likely be joined in the starting lineup by four sophomores.

Defensive outlook: UK’s two all-conference choices on defense from a year ago, tackle Cory Johnson (second team) and linebacker Josh Forrest (third team), have departed Lexington. Johnson tied for second on the squad in tackles and sacks, which was doubly impressive at his position, and Forrest was the unit’s leader in both categories. Stoops better get creative from a pass-rush perspective like he did once upon a time as the D-coordinator at Florida State, as he doesn’t have a single returning defender that recorded multiple sacks in 2015. Sophomore Chris Westry is an emerging star at cornerback.

Toughest home game: Georgia (Nov. 5)
Toughest road game: Alabama (Oct. 1)
Possible upset alert: Missouri (Oct. 29 in Columbia)

11. Missouri

Head coach: Barry Odom (1st season)
2015 record: 5-7 (1-7 SEC)
Returning starters: 13 (5 offense, 8 defense)
Recruiting class: No. 43 (2 4-stars)
Preseason ranking: N/A

Quarterback situation: The circumstances under center in Lexington are somewhat similar to what we have in Columbia, where sophomore Drew Lock was thrown to the wolves last season after Maty Mauk flamed out once and for all — his issues, however, were off the field, not on the field. Lock, a four-star recruit for 2015 offered by the likes of Texas and Ohio State, didn’t even complete 50 percent of his passes for what was an abysmal offense. The 6-foot-4, 205-pounder has nowhere to go but up from here.

Offensive outlook: Mizzou’s two top ball carriers from a year ago, Ish Witter and Russell Hansbrough, didn’t even crack the 1,000-yard plateau as a tandem. Witter (below), a junior, returns alongside Oklahoma transfer Alex Ross. Senior receiver Chris Black, a transfer from Alabama, should become one of the go-to guys. With both Evan Boehm and Connor McGovern moving on to Sunday football, the depth chart along the offensive line is a bit green.

Nov 14, 2015; Kansas City, MO, USA; Missouri Tigers running back Ish Witter (21) runs the ball during the first half against the Brigham Young Cougars at Arrowhead Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports

Credit: Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports

Defensive outlook: Kentrell Brothers, Missouri’s do-everything linebacker and a first-team All-SEC pick, is out of eligibility. Junior defensive end Charles Harris is the most decorated defender scheduled to return, as he was a third-team all-conference selection based on the 7.0 sacks and 18.5 tackles for loss he racked up this past season. Most recently a defensive coordinator, Odom taking over for the retired Gary Pinkel means the Tigers’ overachieving D should again be solid.

Toughest home game: Georgia (Sept. 17)
Toughest road game: LSU (Oct. 1)
Possible upset alert: Middle Tennessee (Oct. 22 in Columbia)

12. Mississippi State

Head coach: Dan Mullen (8th season)
2015 record: 9-4 (4-4 SEC)
Returning starters: 12 (6 offense, 6 defense)
Recruiting class: No. 32 (1 5-star, 2 4-stars)
Preseason ranking: N/A

Quarterback situation: No pressure for Mullen, as all he has to do is replace Prescott, the best QB in school history and arguably the single greatest player to ever wear maroon and white. A pair of redshirt sophomores — Nick Fitzgerald, Elijah Staley — have patiently waited their turn behind Prescott, with Fitzgerald the most experienced of the two. But Staley is probably the higher-upside option, being that he’s a monstrous young man (6-foot-6, 248 pounds) who grew up idolizing Cam Newton and has similar traits.

Offensive outlook: Prescott was the Alpha and the Omega offensively for the Bulldogs each of the past two seasons, so no matter who ends up lining up in shotgun formation for Mullen, he can’t possibly expect his new starter to be another one-man show. Senior running back Brandon Holloway needs to at least double the 92 carries he got in 2015, although he may have issues matching his career average of 5.1 yards per attempt behind what has been a suspect offensive line. While senior receiver Fred Ross will have a tough time catching 88 passes again, he’s a reliable No. 1 option in any passing attack.

Defensive outlook: Hail State only placed one defender on any of the All-SEC squads last year, but fortunately it was senior linebacker Richie Brown (third team), who finished with a team-high 98 tackles. He also led MSU with 5.5 sacks, which is a tribute to Brown’s (below) pass-rushing ability but a damning statistic for the big boys in front of him. His arrival in Starkville was met with overwhelming criticism, but freshman D-end Jeffery Simmons was a five-star stud in high school and could contribute quickly following a one-game suspension.

Dec 30, 2015; Charlotte, NC, USA; North Carolina State Wolfpack quarterback Jacoby Brissett (12) gets sacked by Mississippi State Bulldogs linebacker Richie Brown (39) in the second quarter in the 2015 Belk Bowl at Bank of America Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jeremy Brevard-USA TODAY Sports

Credit: Jeremy Brevard-USA TODAY Sports

Toughest home game: Texas A&M (Nov. 5)
Toughest road game: Alabama (Nov. 12)
Possible upset alert: BYU (Oct. 14 in Provo)

13. Vanderbilt

Head coach: Derek Mason (3rd season)
2015 record: 4-8 (2-6 SEC)
Returning starters: 15 (8 offense, 7 defense)
Recruiting class: No. 54 (1 4-star)
Preseason ranking: N/A

Quarterback situation: The Commodores bounced back and forth between Johnny McCrary and Kyle Shurmur this past season, and neither had a lot of success. McCrary transferred, so Shurmur, just a sophomore, appears to be the choice heading into the 2016 slate. While Shurmur’s completion percentage (42.7) was Pop Warner-esque at times, at least his touchown-to-interception ratio (5-to-3) suggests that he takes better care of the pigskin than McCrary ever did (6-to-12).

Offensive outlook: The offense will be built around junior running back Ralph Webb, who is coming off a 1,152-yard performance last year. For his effort, he was the only Vandy player on offense to earn an All-SEC nod (third team). Seniors are scheduled to start at center and each of the two tackle positions, so Webb should have holes to run through and Shurmur can expect adequate protection.

Defensive outlook: Junior linebacker Zach Cunningham, who led the ‘Dores in total tackles, tackles for loss and sacks a year ago, is the linchpin on his side of the ball. He was awarded first-team all-conference honors in 2015 and can only get better at this point. Cunningham (below) could use some more help, of course, although junior safety Oren Burks is quite a player himself.

Nov 7, 2015; Gainesville, FL, USA; Florida Gators running back Kelvin Taylor (21) runs with the ball as Vanderbilt Commodores linebacker Zach Cunningham (41) tackles during the first half at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

Toughest home game: Tennessee (Nov. 26)
Toughest road game: Georgia (Oct. 15)
Possible upset alert: Western Kentucky (Sept. 24 in Bowling Green)

14. South Carolina

Head coach: Will Muschamp (1st season)
2015 record: 3-9 (1-7 SEC)
Returning starters: 11 (5 offense, 6 defense)
Recruiting class: No. 24 (6 4-stars)
Preseason ranking: N/A

Quarterback situation: The Gamecocks started three QBs in 2015, but nobody did enough to take control of the spot going forward. Connor Mitch got injured and recently decided to transfer, Lorenzo Nunez will always be more runner than passer and Perry Orth was originally a walk-on for a reason. Incoming freshman Brandon McIlwain, a four-star signee from the quarterback-rich state of Pennsylvania, could be the man from Day 1.

Offensive outlook: Junior David Williams is the primary option in the backfield, although he averaged a paltry 3.5 yards per carry backing up the versatile — and graduated — Brandon Wilds. Receiver Pharoh Cooper might prove to be even more challenging to replace, as his 66-973-8 stat line was miraculous considering the merry-go-round under center. One bright spot could be sophomore tight end Hayden Hurst, a former minor league baseball player who opened a lot of eyes during spring practice.

Defensive outlook: Senior linebacker Skai Moore, the only Gamecock defender to make All-SEC this past year (second team), will be out all of 2016 due to a herniated disc in his neck. It’s simply a devastating loss for Muschamp, despite his résumé as a defensive mind, as Moore was the team’s leading tackler and an early-round prospect for the upcoming NFL Draft. As for the good news, South Carolina does return its two top sack artists in linebacker Darius English and end Marquavius Lewis.

Toughest home game: Tennessee (Oct. 29)
Toughest road game: Clemson (Nov. 26)
Possible upset alert: East Carolina (Sept. 17 in Columbia)

John Crist is the senior writer for Saturday Down South. You can send him an e-mail directly at jcrist@saturdaydownsouth.com or follow him on Twitter @SaturdayJC.