With surprise champions the past three seasons, the SEC East race has been hard to predict.

That may not change in 2016. Tennessee seems to be the popular choice to break through and win the division, though the Volunteers must battle through a tough early schedule, with Florida, Georgia, Texas A&M and Alabama on successive Saturdays.

If defending champion Florida can find a capable quarterback, the Gators should contend. The rest of the division is in flux with first-year coaches at Georgia, South Carolina and Missouri.

Here’s a way-too-early look at next season’s SEC East:

Editor’s note: The NFL Draft’s early entry deadline is Jan. 18, so some eligible players could still apply for the draft. We’ve tried to accurately project their decisions ahead of the deadline and those are reflected in the ‘key losses’ category.

1. TENNESSEE VOLUNTEERS

Key returnees: QB Joshua Dobbs, RB Jalen Hurd, WR Josh Malone, TE Ethan Wolf, C Coleman Thomas, DE Derek Barnett, DE Corey Vereen, LB Jalen Reeves-Maybin, LB Darrin Kirkland Jr., CB Cam Sutton, CB Justin Martin, S/KR Evan Berry, K Aaron Medley.

Key losses: OT Kyler Kerbyson, WR Von Pearson, DB LaDarrell McNeil, DB Brian Randolph.

Buzz: The Volunteers could return as many as 17 starters from a team that won its last six games, including a rout of Northwestern in the Outback Bowl. Perhaps more important, they are the only team in the division with a proven quarterback. Joshua Dobbs, a solid leader with dangerous running ability and a strong arm, produced more than 3,500 yards of total offense with 15 passing and 11 rushing touchdowns. Combined with RB Jalen Hurd, who rushed for 1,288 yards and 12 TDs, and an offensive line that loses only one starter, the Vols should move the football. Butch Jones brought in Bob Shoop from Penn State to take over the defense. If standout LB Jalen Reeves-Maybin returns, the Vols could have eight starters back. Derek Barnett returns at end after making 10 sacks as a sophomore. The biggest concern would be the secondary, where LaDarrell McNeil and and Brian Randolph are gone. But super kick returner Evan Berry figures to move into one of the spots. To win the division, the Vols must win early — something they haven’t done the last two seasons — before heading into its weaker second-half schedule.

2. GEORGIA BULLDOGS

Key returnees: RB Nick Chubb, RB, Sony Michel, WR Isaiah McKenzie, WR Terry Godwin, TE Jeb Blazevich, OL Brandon Kublanow, QB Greyson Lambert, DB Quincy Mauger, DB Dominick Sanders, K Marshall Morgan.

Key losses: LB Jordan Jenkins, LB Leonard Floyd, OT John Theus, WR Malcolm Mitchell.

Buzz: Can Jacob Eason come in and grab the starting quarterback spot as a true freshman? That’s the big question for the Bulldogs and new coach Kirby Smart. Despite losing three seniors up front, the Bulldogs should be able to run the football. Nick Chubb was a force before injuring his leg against Tennessee, but reports are he should return to full strength. If not Sony Michel proved to be a strong replacement, finishing with 1,161 yards after taking over for Chubb at midseason. Smart needs receivers Isaiah McKenzie and Terry Godwin to step up with the loss of Malcolm Mitchell. The defense loses most of its front seven, but returns the entire secondary, including Dominick Sanders, who had six interceptions. The Bulldogs also must find a replacement for kicker Marshall Morgan. Georgia’s early season will be tough. The Bulldogs open with North Carolina, which won the ACC Coastal Division, and play at Ole Miss in Week 4 then return home for a crucial game against Tennessee.

3. FLORIDA GATORS

Key returnees: QB Treon Harris, RB Jordan Cronkrite, WR Antonio Callaway, TE DeAndre Goolsby, C Cameron Dillard, DL Caleb Brantley, DB Jalen Tabor.

Key losses: QB Will Grier, WR Demarcus Robinson, RB Kelvin Taylor, RG Trip Thurman, LG Mason Halter, TE Jake McGee, CB Vernon Hargraves III, DE Jonathan Bullard, LB Antonio Morrison.

Buzz: The Gators were great in 2016 with Will Grier at quarterback, rolling to a 6-0 start, including a 38-10 victory over Ole Miss. But when Grier tested positive for PEDs and was suspended, the season steadily tracked downward. Treon Harris couldn’t throw well enough to prevent opposing defenses from stacking the box and shutting down the Gators running game, which didn’t have a breakaway threat. Kelvin Taylor rushed for 1,035 yards, but averaged only 4 yards per carry. Receiver Demarcus Robinson continued to have discipline problems. The only bright spot was freshman Antonio Callaway, who provided the Gators with a big-play threat. The Gators will depend on two-time transfer Luke Del Rio or incoming freshman Feleipe Franks to provide a capable passing game to open up the offense. Like Georgia, the Gators have talent and depth at several position.

4. MIZZOU TIGERS

Key returnees: QB Maty Mauk, QB Drew Lock, WR Nate Brown, OL Nate Crawford, DT Harold Brantley, DT Josh Augusta, DT Terry Beckner Jr., DE Walter Brady, DE Charles Harris, LB Michael Scherer, CB Josh Gibson, DB Aarion Penton.

Key losses: RB Russell Hansbrough, C Evan Boehm, OT Connor McGovern, LB Kentrell Brothers, CB Kenya Dennis, S Ian Simon, PK Andrew Baggett.

Buzz: Mizzou must find answers on offense. The Tigers’ offensive line and wide receivers were awful in 2015. The line’s failure was a big surprise, considering four starters were experienced seniors. But after some summer reshuffling, the unit never got untracked. Poor pass protection and lack of playmakers at receiver made life difficult for quarterbacks Maty Mauk and Drew Lock. New head coach Barry Odom reinstated Mauk after taking over following Gary Pinkel’s retirement, leaving an expected spring battle between Mauk and Lock for the starting spot. The offensive line will be rebuilt around tackle senior Malik Cuellar. The Tigers may need immediate help from running back recruit Nate Strong and a group of young receivers. The defense should remain solid, led by standouts up front, including ends Charles Harris and Walter Brady and tackles Josh Augusta, Harold Brantley and Terry Beckner Jr. Linebacker Michael Scherer, the team’s second-leading tackler behind departing star Kentrell Brothers, will be depended to anchor the defense. Mizzou’s defense could be dominant. With only modest production on offense, the Tigers could be a surprise contender.

5. KENTUCKY WILDCATS

Key returnees: QB Drew Barker, RB Boom Williams, RB Jojo Kemp, WR Garrett Johnson, WR Dorian Baker, WR Jeff Badet, OG Ramsey Meyers, OT Kyle Meadows, DE Jason Hatcher, CB Chris Westry, CB Derrick Baity, S Marcus McWilson, S Mike Edwards, K Austin MacGinnis.

Key losses: QB Patrick Towles, C Jon Toth, OT Jordan Swindle, LB Josh Forrest, S A.J. Stamps, DT Cory Johnson, LB Khalid Henderson.

Buzz: Mark Stoops has recruited well. Now, it’s time for him to win. The Wildcats return Boom Williams, one of the conference’s top running backs, and receivers Dorian Baker, Garrett Johnson and Jeff Badet, who combined for more than 1,700 yards in receiving. Sophomore Drew Barker took over at quarterback late in the season, gaining valuable experience. The Wildcats have some holes to fill on the offensive line with the departure of center Jon Toth and tackle Jordan Swindle. The defense loses six of its top seven tackles, but returns a solid secondary, including cornerbacks Chris Westry and Derrick Baity, who started as freshmen. Junior J.D. Harmon led the team with three interceptions last season. Defensive end Jason Hatcher shows potential as a pass rusher. A depleted linebacker unit will depend on sophomores Josh Allen and Jordan Jones to develop into solid starters. The Wildcats have a tough early schedule, playing at Florida in Week 2 and at Alabama in Week 5.

6. VANDERBILT COMMODORES

Key returnees: QB Kyle Shurmur, RB Ralph Webb, WR Trent Sherfield, WR Caleb Scott, LT Will Holden, DL Adam Butler, LB Zach Cunningham, LB Stephen Weatherly, DB Oren Burks, DB Tre Herndon, DB Torren McGaster, DB Arnold Tarpley, K Tommy Openshaw.

Key losses: C Spencer Pulley, DE Caleb Azubike, LB Darrion Herring, S Andrew Williamson.

Buzz: The Commodores fielded one of the conference’s top defenses last season with coach Derek Mason taking over. Linebacker Zach Cunningham was one of the top surprises, leading the team with 103 tackles, 16.5 tackles for loss and 4.5 sacks. The defense pulled the weight in late-season victories over Missouri and Kentucky and held Florida to nine points in an upset bid that was foiled by a late field goal. Linebacker Stephen Weatherly and defensive backs Oren Burks, Tre Herndon, Torren McGaster and Arnold Tarpley and Andrew Williamson are sure tacklers and solid in coverage. The offense offers promise with RB Ralph Webb returning after rushing for 1,152 yards for a team that struggled when forced to pass. Freshman Kyle Shurmur took over at quarterback late in the season and showed promise that he could improve the passing game. The Commodores return top receiver Trent Sherfield, who caught 51 passes for 659 yards, but need a deep threat to stretch the field for Shurmur. The Commodores lose solid center Spencer Pulley, but recruited four-star Sean Auwae from Hawaii as a possible replacement.

7. SOUTH CAROLINA GAMECOCKS

Key returnees: QB Lorenzo Nunez, QB Perry Orth, RB David Williams, WR Deebo Samuel,  C Alan Knott, LB Jonathan Walton, LB T.J. Holloman DB Chris Lammons, K Elliott Fry.

Key losses: RB Brandon Wilds, WR Pharoh Cooper, LT Brandon Shell, LG Mike Matulis, RG Will Sport, TE Jerell Adams, NT Gerald Dixon Jr., LB T.J. Gurley, CB Isaiah Johnson.

Buzz: Will Muschamp takes over a team without a quarterback or a proven playmaker on offense. Incoming freshman Brandon McIlwain will have a chance to win the job in a battle with a trio of returnees. Deebo Samuel is the top candidate to supply the big plays lost by the early departure of Pharoh Cooper. The situation on offense is made tougher by the loss of three offensive linemen. Muschamp must restock the Gamecocks with talent. Though Steve Spurrier won 11 games for three straight seasons from 2011-2013, the coach didn’t follow up with strong recruiting classes. Muschamp stressed recruiting when hiring his staff. Finding a quarterback is the priority for his first season.

Edit: A previous version of the article stated that Skai Moore is not coming back for South Carolina.