Now that 2015 is officially in the books, we take a quick breath and then dive right in to 2016. There’s still plenty to be determined in recruiting, of course, and the mad dash to Wednesday, Feb. 3 and National Signing Day may change some perspectives.

That said, let’s take a look at who’s going to be entertaining us in the third edition of the College Football Playoff next year.

Yeah, I know it’s early, but still. Every fan is already dreaming of glory, right? When it comes to college football, it’s never too early.

Here’s what we know so far, through two years of playoffs:

  • The Big Ten and the SEC are the only two conferences to have a representative each year that went on to win the title (Ohio State 2014, Alabama 2015).
  • The Big Ten, SEC and ACC have had a representative each year.
  • The Big 12 (in 2014) and the Pac-12 (in 2015) have each been left out of the party once. Something’s got to give when there’s only four spots and five power conferences.
  • The Big 12 is the only league to not win a playoff game yet.

And here’s what’s going to happen next year, at least as clearly as I can see on Jan. 15.

The absolute locks for the playoffs

There are none. And that’s what we love about college football.

The favorites going in

Alabama and Clemson just finished playing a great game in the national championship, and the early leans by most of America is that the two of them will be back in the finals.

To that, I harken back the my old college coach at Indiana, the venerable old Lee Corso: “Not so fast, my friend.”

Here are the reasons behind why I don’t think either Alabama or Clemson should be considered such heavy favorites to make it back to the playoffs:

  • Alabama: I’m on record this week as saying I like Ole Miss and LSU better than Alabama in the SEC West next year, and the reason behind that is that Alabama is losing far too many critical pieces. There’s a lot to replace, like a dozen or so all-stars, and if there’s every going to be a year where they’re not perfect, it could be 2016. They also have to play Tennessee, another team whose bandwagon I’ve firmly placed myself on. Bama loses at least twice next year and misses the playoffs.
  • Clemson: I work for an SEC website and I try to hide my biases almost all the time. (My cohorts in the office may disagree slightly.) I truly do love SEC football. But, truth be told, I’m a Florida State guy, and have been for years. That said, I look at 2016 and know that “we” have Clemson at home in Tallahassee and I’m confident FSU can win that game at home, and then win the ACC. Clemson misses out, too.

Teams we feel pretty good about being there

The selection committee always has a challenge on its hands, simply trying to fill only four spots where there are usually more than four teams worthy of a spot. That’s going to be the case next year, too. Here are some teams with a pretty good case in 2016.

  • Stanford: The Cardinal were the odd man out in 2015, winning the Pac-12 but still being left at home – and probably rightly so – because of their two losses. But they’re going to be really good next year too, and should be the favorite in the Pac-12, though that league is going to be pretty tough next year. With Christian McCaffrey on the roster and a ton of Heisman hype, it’s going to be impossible to leave Stanford out of the playoffs two years in a row if they win the Pac-12. I’d say they’re in.
  • Ole Miss/Tennessee: Bandwagon jumper than I am, I’m all in on Ole Miss and Tennessee next year in  the SEC. No one goes unbeaten in the SEC next year, but the best conference in the country should always have a seat at the playoff table. I say the SEC Championship Game winner goes to the playoffs for sure. Early bandwagon lean: Ole Miss. I think Chad Kelly is going to have a huge year.
  • Ohio State/Michigan: There’s no doubt in my mind that the Big Ten is  going back to the Big Two next year. We can put Iowa and Michigan State in our rearview mirror for a while and look forward to a huge Michigan vs. Ohio State showdown next year in Columbus to determine the Big Ten East winner. I wouldn’t be surprised if both teams showed up for that game unbeaten. Winner gets a playoff spot for sure. Early lean: Though I love what Jim Harbaugh is doing at Michigan, I think home field saves it for the Buckeyes.
  • Baylor: The Bears watched a playoff season wither and die when they started losing quarterbacks left and right this year. They’ve got a great team coming back and if they can stay healthy, they should win the Big 12. They have a laughable nonconference schedule again (Northwestern State, SMU, Rice) and could very well be unbeaten by season’s end. I think  they get a spot.

So there’s your five playoff teams, Florida State, Ole Miss, Stanford, Ohio State and Baylor. That’s five, and that’s a problem. Want a sixth that would make some noise? Say Alabama doesn’t make the SEC title game because of Ole Miss, but only has one loss? Down South here, we’d rail for two SEC teams in the mix.

Who gets left out next year?

Sad to say, it’s going to be my Florida State Seminoles. They are going to go 11-1, with their only loss to Ole Miss in the opener in Orlando, and they’re still going to get left out.

That means I’ll get to rant and rave a little bit again in early December. You’ll let me have my rage, right? Y’all will laugh like crazy at me through Dixieland, but that’s cool.

I’m good with it.

Now, hurry up and get here September. I miss college football already, and it’s only been four days.