Arkansas head coach Bobby Petrino is often labeled an offensive guru and for good reason (as the stats in this post demonstrate).  He has had a high level of offensive success across multiple teams with all sorts of personnel. In this article, we will look at the offensive numbers for the Petrino offenses over the years and use such statistics to make an educated guess on the type of production we might see from Tyler Wilson in 2011.

Auburn Tigers – 2002

Let’s start with Auburn in 2002. Petrino was named offensive coordinator in 2002 under head coach Tommy Tuberville (along with Gene Chizik as defensive coordinator). Petrino coached at Auburn one year before moving on to Louisville.

The offense that year had the blessing of having two NFL running backs in Ronnie Brown and Carnell “Cadillac” Williams. The well-balanced offense that year had 2,448 rushing yards (1,008 for Brown, 745 for Williams) and 2,312 passing yards. Quarterback time was split between Jason Campbell and Daniel Cobb who combined for 2,390 yards and 18 touchdowns. The offense averaged 31.2 points per game.

The quarterback did not have to do much in this offense because of the insane talent at running back. Petrino is very effective at putting together an offensive strategy based on the talent on his roster. For instance, the 2002 Auburn offense couldn’t look more different than the 2009 Arkansas offense.

Louisville Cardinals – 2003-2006

In 2003, Louisville hired Bobby Petrino as their new head coach. It was a great hire. Petrino’s offense in his four seasons was no worse than 13th in the nation in scoring and in the top 3 each season from 2004 to 2006. Obviously, the competition on Louisville’s schedule is different than any SEC team. Petrino’s Louisville team may not have lined up against NFL defensive personnel week-in and week-out, but he again demonstrated producing very high offensive output with the talent on his team.

Petrino produced high passing numbers across two main quarterbacks during his Louisville tenure.

• 2003: Stefan Lafors – 219/357 completions, 3,145 passing yards, 17 touchdowns, 10 interceptions
• 2004: Stefan Lafors – 189/257 completions, 2,596 passing yards, 20 touchdowns, 3 interceptions
• 2004: Brian Brohm – 66/98 completions, 819 yards, 6 touchdowns, 2 interceptions
• 2005: Brian Brohm – 207/301 completions, 2,883 passing yards, 19 touchdowns, 5 interceptions
• 2006: Brian Brohm – 199/313 completions, 3,049 passing yards, 16 touchdowns, 5 interceptions

In scoring offense, Louisville ranked nationally as follows:

• 2003: 13th best scoring offense
• 2004: 1st best scoring offense
• 2005: 3rd best scoring offense
• 2006: 3rd best scoring offense

Petrino’s offensive production and overall success at Louisville led the Atlanta Falcons to hire him ahead of the 2007 season. A Falcons disaster centered around Mike Vick and some dead dogs led Petrino to bail on the Falcons after just one season and head back to the SEC.

Arkansas Razorbacks – 2008-Present

The 2008 offense for Arkansas was the worst offensive production we have seen this decade from Petrino. The team itself was in a state of transition and struggled all season. Casey Dick got most of the time at QB and managed to throw for 2,586 yards and 13 touchdowns, but 14 interceptions. The team had the 91st ranked scoring offense, and went a disappointing 5-7.

2009 was a massive turnaround as Petrino brought in more talent and none bigger than Michigan transfer Ryan Mallett.  The offense jumped from 91st in the nation to 8th in scoring. Mallett put up an impressive 3,624 yards and a whopping 30 touchdowns with only 7 picks. The team went 8-5 including a very near upset to the top ranked Florida Gators.

In 2010, Petrino kept it rolling with the 17th best offense in the nation despite playing in one of the toughest divisions we’ve ever seen in a single year. Mallett once again put up big numbers, going 266 for 411 and throwing for 3,869 yards. His 32 touchdowns were accompanied by 12 interceptions.

Even more impressive is that the 2010 passing game was coupled with a Knile Davis-led running attack. Davis compiled 1,322 yards and 13 touchdowns.

After dropping two key games against Alabama and Auburn before the first half of the season was in the books, Petrino made the adjustment to balance the offense more and the result was a six game run including wins over ranked South Carolina, Mississippi State and LSU. Five of those six games, Davis had over 100 yards after not getting over 100 in any of the first six games. Of those five, four of them had Davis over 150 yards rushing. 12 of Davis’ 13 touchdowns came in those six games. The second half of the season was nothing short of dominance on the ground at the hands of Knile Davis.

What Does This Mean For 2011?

Ryan Mallett’s production was very high, and it’s very unlikely that Tyler Wilson can reproduce it. The good news is he likely won’t have to.

The team returns immense talent to support the offense both at running back and wide receiver. We’ve already documented what Davis did last season, now let’s look at the talent at receiver.

In 2010, the Razorbacks had five receivers that each had over 600 yards receiving. This is incredible.

The depth at receiver is insane. The 2010 Oklahoma Sooners who had the top passing offense of BCS conference programs had the following numbers:

Now, obviously the numbers are skewed with the insane production of Ryan Broyles with his nutty 1,622 yards. The bottom line is that Arkansas’ receivers are very good and very deep.  They return all of their top five wide outs, with the exception of tight end D.J. Williams.

As we look at the experience and production Bobby Petrino has gotten out of his quarterbacks at three different programs, we know this is a positive for Tyler Wilson. As we look at what Knile Davis should be able to accomplish in 2011, we know this is a positive for Tyler Wilson. As we look at the excellent receiving corps that will line up for Wilson, we know this is a positive. It’s also worth noting that Greg Childs, Knile Davis and Tyler Wilson were each recently named to the Maxwell Award Watch List, and Arkansas had four receivers on the Biletnikoff Award Watch List given to the best wide receiver in the country.

The best glimpse we received of Tyler Wilson was last year during the Auburn shoot out when Ryan Mallett went down with an injury. This appearance is really not significant at all, except for the good ol’ eye ball test. Wilson showed he could flat out sling the ball. He threw for four touchdowns that day and 300-plus passing yards (and also two interceptions).

In 2010, Arkansas registered 4,061 passing yards and 1,810 rushing yards. They averaged 489.3 yards per game of offense. What can we expect with regards to 2011 production? Since the balanced offense didn’t really start until mid-way through the year in 2010, it’s likely we will see more balanced yardage numbers over the entire year. Passing numbers will likely come down slightly and rushing yards will go up. I could absolutely see 3,500 passing yards and 2,200 rushing yards in 2011.

Arkansas has every piece in place to play some excellent and exciting football this year for their fans. Coming off the first BCS game from last year (which they officially did not lose), this program has immense momentum. The only thing stopping Arkansas from winning the brutal West this season is a handful of plays that need to go Arkansas’ way. In my opinion, you can’t convince me that the Hogs don’t have as much of a chance to win the West as any other team in 2011.