SDS will be taking an early look at each SEC Championship contenders and their chances of winning it in Atlanta by listing three reasons why they will win and three reasons why they will not.

Alabama Crimson Tide

It was an odd year for the SEC and Alabama last year. The Tide obviously didn’t win the SEC West or the SEC Championship but got the much-controversial rematch with the Tigers, eventually dominating the rematch and winning the national championship. We know how it all played out.

This year, the Tide hope to repeat as national champions, by winning their conference first.

Three Reasons Why

1. Nick Saban: If you can choose a coach in America to be the lead facilitator and head coach over your team, you choose Nick Saban. It’s possible you may never get along with Saban on or off the field, but as long as he keeps winning championships, that will become an afterthought. He’s intimidating; he’s straightforward. Saban is regarded as the best defensive mind in the college game, and he quickly became the most popular head coach in the country and cemented himself in Crimson Tide history and legacy. Saban is the best in the business, not only at recruiting the best prospects in the country, but also at developing the players into All-Americans once they get there as well. His players prepare very well and respond to him on the field, and that’s obviously a big part of his success. Saban has a .821 winning percentage and has won three BCS National Championships at two different SEC schools. Saban is the obvious No. 1 reason.

2. Veteran Leadership: Even though the Tide lost a slew of NFL draft picks, they return 12 starters overall. Most notably on offense, quarterback AJ McCarron returns, along with the bulk of his offensive line in Barrett Jones, DJ Fluker, Chance Warmack and Anthony Steen. These are the core players and leaders who go to battle each and every week and lead the younger players. Even running backs Eddie Lacy and Jalston Fowler return with experience. Defensively, Alabama returns several veterans along the line and two veterans at linebacker in CJ Moseley and Nico Johnson. This is a veteran group that is hungry for another championship, and veteran leaders who have been there before will have a big impact on how the younger, inexperienced players respond.

3. AJ McCarron: This is AJ McCarron’s year. He returns with the SEC’s third most passing yards, behind Tyler Wilson and Aaron Murray. And undoubtedly, McCarron returns as the centerpiece of this offense. Yes, he was a game manager in 2011, but he had the best running back in America on his team to chew up yards and only needed to make a plays here and there to help last year’s team win. He’ll need to do more this year. McCarron looks to take his game to the next level and really escape the game manager label. Nick Saban really praised McCarron during the spring, and he should really develop under new offensive coordinator Doug Nussmeier this fall.

Three Reasons Why Not

1. Too Many Personnel Losses: Alabama lost their leading rusher, leading receiver, leading tackler and leading sacker to the NFL. It doesn’t matter how much talent you have on campus or how well you’ve recruited, that’s a big step for teams to just reload having lost that much talent and experience. Alabama will be replacing two linebackers, two corners and a safety on defense, along with impact players on offense like Trent Richardson and Marquis Maze. I’m not saying Alabama will not overcome the losses, but teams normally don’t reload with enough talent to make a run at a conference championship or repeat for a national championship. It will take the younger, inexperienced players a few games to get into the groove and for things to slow down for them.

2. Wide Receivers: While Alabama has the chance to be more explosive than years past at receiver, they will also be much more inexperienced. The slated starters entering fall camp are sophomores DeAndrew White, Christion Jones and juniors Kevin Norwood and Kenny Bell. This spring we saw some depth emerge with freshmen Amari Cooper and Chris Black showing some flashes. The top four receivers in receptions and receiving yards from 2011 are now gone, and a new group will have to step up and provide some sparks because they cannot just rely on the running game the entire season. If Duron Carter eventually finds his way into a uniform, he will add a whole new weapon in the receiving game. But this group is simply not proven, yet.

3. Special Teams: Leading punt returner Marquis Maze is gone, and he provided such a spark in the return game by the field position he created every time he touched the ball. Replacing Maze will be more difficult than most think. Everyone wants to know how the field goal kickers are doing. By all indications, returners Cade Foster and Jeremy Shelley had good springs, after an up and down season last year…and by down, we mean the LSU regular season game when the Tide missed four field goals. We will simply not know their physical or mental improvement until they run out under the lights in game one against Michigan. Incoming freshman Adam Griffith could develop into the everyday place kicker if this unit gets off to a rocky start.

Additionally, Alabama plays the second toughest schedule in the SEC, playing four of the top 25 teams in the early SI poll. It will be tough getting through the gauntlet to win the West and get back to the national championship, but I’m not counting the Tide out.

Morale returned to a city of crimson Saturday night, as Alabama defeated the Ole Miss Rebel Black Bears at home in Bryant-Denny Stadium.

Though the victory may not be the cleanest performance of the Tide’s season after a week of uncertainty, a relatively easy 23 – 10 roll over the Rebel Black Bears sufficiently calmed the fears of the Alabama faithful.

Improvement on Defense

Defensively, Alabama nearly reversed its performance against South Carolina on third downs, allowed only one Ole Miss score and a field goal in the first half. Aside from the scoring drive near the end of the second quarter, the defense stopped four of the five other Ole Miss possessions, without allowing the Rebels a single first down.

The second half proved more challenging for the defense and included a 10-play, 71-yard Rebel touchdown drive.

Mixed Results in the Backfield

Tailback Trent Richardson had a big night, receiving five passes for 101 yards and rushing for 45. Richardson’s key play of the game came in the third quarter in the form of a third-and-11 pass play by Greg McElroy, resulting in an 85-yard touchdown.

Mark Ingram also showed a bit of improvement, but he only rushed for 60 yards throughout the game. Ingram struggled against South Carolina, damaging his chances to repeat as the Heisman trophy winner, and Saturday’s rather dull performance against Ole Miss certainly did not help his cause. Although this week’s 60 yards is an improvement over last week’s 41, more is expected from the former Heisman trophy winner.

Greg McElroy completed 17 of 25 passes for a cool 219 yards and averaged 8.8 yards a carry. Statistically, McElroy may be the only Tide player to put up fewer yards this week than against South Carolina. Ironically, McElroy had a career performance against the Gamecocks, but his consistency on Saturday revealed him to be one of the most stable forces on the Tide offense.

Kicking Game Questionable

Cade Foster and Jeremy Shelley shared the spotlight Saturday night, with Foster primarily kicking field goals and Shelley extra point attempts.

Shelley’s one attempted field goal in the fourth quarter missed the mark and added another blemish to his record, after missing both a field goal and an extra point attempt against South Carolina. Although he missed the field goal, Shelley made both extra point attempts.

Foster had a perfect kicking performance, scoring 3 field goals in the game.

Good News from Outside the Conference

Two of the Tide’s biggest roadblocks to a second consecutive national championship appearance fell this weekend in surprising upsets. Former No. 1 Ohio State was dropped to a dominant performance by No. 18 Wisconsin, and No. 5 Nebraska lost at home to unranked Texas.

These losses bumped Oklahoma to No. 1 in the BCS poll, but the Tide was leapfrogged by undefeated LSU and Michigan State.

Many circumstances must still align in the Tide’s favor in order for a championship game bid to occur, but this weekend proved that the team remains a contender in the race for the BCS crown.

Practice has started and the Bama players are already in full pads. With football season approaching, I thought you may like to read these comments from Chris Low of ESPN:

What’s new: After James Willis left to be Tommy Tuberville’s defensive coordinator at Texas Tech, Alabama coach Nick Saban promoted Jeremy Pruitt to a full-time assistant from his role as director of player development. Pruitt will work with the secondary.

Sidelined: Saban announced Wednesday that sophomore safety Rod Woodson has left the program and plans to transfer. Signees Ronnie Carswell and Wilson Love will grayshirt and enroll in January. A third signee, Deion Belue, has yet to qualify academically and won’t start camp with the Crimson Tide, who are still holding a spot for Blake Sims assuming he gets final approval from the NCAA Clearinghouse. Junior defensive end Marcell Dareus will practice with the team while he awaits word from the NCAA on whether he will be suspended for any games as a result of his trip to Miami in the spring. The NCAA is investigating to see if any part of that trip was funded by agents.

Key battle: With the exception of Mark Barron at strong safety, every job in the secondary is up for grabs. Dre Kirkpatrick is the probable starter at one cornerback, but B.J. Scott will fight it out with junior college newcomer DeQuan Menzie and true freshmen DeMarcus Milliner and John Fulton for the other starting spot. Robert Lester has a beat on that second safety job, but true freshmen Jarrick Williams and Nick Perry could also be factors.

New on the scene: In addition to all the new faces in the secondary, a pair of true freshmen may be doing the kicking for the Crimson Tide this fall — Cade Foster as the place-kicker and Jay Williams as the punter. Redshirt freshman D.J. Fluker is the favorite to win the right tackle job on the offensive line. True freshman receiver DeAndrew White has been impressive with his speed during summer workouts.

Breaking out: Alabama has stockpiled talent at the linebacker position over the last few years. Don’t be surprised if junior Courtney Upshaw emerges as the next All-SEC linebacker for the Crimson Tide.

Don’t forget about: Dont’a Hightower was on the field last season for less than four full games. Imagine how good that defense would have been had he been there all season. He’s back healthy now after recovering from reconstructive knee surgery and will step into Rolando McClain’s middle linebacker spot in Alabama’s base defense and shift over to the “Jack” linebacker spot on passing downs.

All eyes on: Junior running back Mark Ingram. What’s he do for an encore after winning the Heisman Trophy? One thing’s for sure. He won’t have to do it by himself. His backup, Trent Richardson, might be just as good, meaning there could be a pair of 1,000-yard rushers in Tuscaloosa this fall.

Quoting: “A lot of people ask, ‘How are you being motivated?’ The way I look at it is that if you’ve been to the mountain top, why would you settle for anything less?” — Alabama quarterback Greg McElroy