Whenever a truly great college football team comes along — let’s say 2019 LSU — it’s inevitable that pundits will start debating, “Could the Tigers beat a bad NFL team?”

Sober observers agree: no, that’s insane. But an innovative oddsmaker at Caesars Sportsbook has developed a more reasonable way to have a related conversation: head-to-head win totals between a number of marquee college football programs and regional NFL counterparts.

The matchup that’s sure to grab the attention of SEC country is Alabama vs. the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The idea is simple. Bet on Alabama and you’ll win your wager if the Tide finish the 2022 regular season with more wins than the Bucs.

For example, an 11-1 Alabama would beat a 10-7 Tampa Bay. (The SEC Championship Game and CFP games are excluded, as are the NFL playoffs.)

While the margin is razor thin, the Bucs are slightly favored to win more games than Nick Saban’s restocked Tide, who enter the 2022 season ranked No. 1 in ESPN’s Football Power Index.

Alabama vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Odds to win more games

Team
Odds
Alabama Crimson Tide
-105
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
-125

Comparing win totals

Comparing Alabama’s and Tampa Bay’s preseason win totals, at first glance bettors appear to be getting a steal on Tampa Bay at -125. The 2022 NFL win totals have the Bucs at 11.5 while the NCAAF win totals have Alabama a full game lower at 10.5.

Those benchmarks don’t tell the full story, though. The over/under odds add necessary context. Tampa Bay’s odds of going over 11.5 are sitting at +108 (48.1% implied probability), while Alabama’s odds of going over 10.5 are currently -230 (69.7% implied probability).

In other words, oddsmakers are expecting Alabama to reach at least 11 wins, while Tampa Bay is an underdog to get to 12. So the Bama vs. Tampa Bay line — which is nearly a pick’em — is not blatantly incongruous with the preseason win totals.

But still, based purely on win totals, it’s sensible for the Buccaneers to be modest chalk.

Comparing strength of schedule

The next way to compare our Alabama apples to our Tampa Bay oranges is by strength of schedule. In the NFL strength of schedule rankings, Tampa Bay has just the 22nd-toughest slate out of 32 teams.

In addition to their home-and-homes with the NFC South (Atlanta, Carolina, New Orleans), the Bucs play the AFC North (Baltimore, Cincinnati, Cleveland, Pittsburgh), the NFC West (Arizona, LA Rams, San Francisco, Seattle), plus Dallas, Green Bay, and Kansas City.

Their non-divisional games are tougher than average, but their 6 games against the rest of the NFC South make it easier than the median NFL schedule.

Playing in the SEC West, Nick Saban knows his team’s schedule is going to be a veritable gauntlet compared to … well, let’s not name names. That said, Alabama’s 2022 schedule is not as difficult as previous iterations. While they rank 46th-toughest nationally (out of 131) in the college football strength-of-schedule rankings, they have the 4th-easiest SEC slate.

The Tide host the Iron Bowl and also get Texas A&M, arguably their stiffest competition of the year, at home. On paper, their toughest road games are a Week 2 showdown with Texas in Austin and at LSU in early November.

Their crossover games with the SEC East are Tennessee and Vanderbilt. No Georgia. No Florida. No Kentucky.

Utah State, UL Monroe, and Austin Peay round out the non-con.

Look-ahead lines have already been posted for the majority of Alabama’s 2022 games, and the Tide are huge favorites in each one. They are laying 15.5 points at LSU, 16.5 versus the Aggies, and a staggering 23.5 versus Auburn. The smallest spread on the board is Alabama -14.5 at Texas.

In other words, if Alabama is going to lose a game this season, it’s going to be to a massive (preseason) underdog.

The Saban Factor vs. The Brady Factor

It’s entirely too simplistic to reduce a football team to its most-prominent face, but at the same time, Nick Saban and Tom Brady have track records that go way beyond correlation.

Since Saban took over the Tide in 2007, he has won at least 11 regular-season games in 12 of 15 seasons. That includes 10 of the past 11. His average over his Alabama tenure is 10.87 regular-season wins per year.

Soon-to-be 45-year-old Tom Brady earned his reputation as the GOAT largely through his playoff accomplishments, racking up a record 7 Super Bowl rings. But his regular-season exploits should not be overlooked, especially when it comes to this prop bet. During his time with the Patriots, Brady played a full 16-game regular season 16 times. He averaged 12.25 wins per year.

And, keep in mind, that’s when the NFL schedule was only 16 games long.

Brady went 11-5 in his first season with Tampa Bay (2020) and then upped that mark to 13-4 last year, the NFL’s first with a 17-game slate.

Brady’s overall regular-season record in games started is 243-73, which works out to a 76.9 win percentage. Over a 17-game season, that amounts to an average of 13.1 wins per year.

Will Brady take a step back at the ripe old age of 45? Maybe. Would I bet my money on it? Not in this decade.

At the end of the day, the odds here look spot on. Tampa has the potential to win more games than Alabama even plays, and all signs point to at least 11 wins for the Bucs. But if they don’t make it to that all-important 12, Tampa bettors will be pinning their hopes on a longshot upsetting the Tide.