Alabama helped the SEC avoid a doomsday scenario last weekend. The Crimson Tide’s Iron Bowl win made sure the SEC still had a playoff contender left standing after rivalry weekend. Alabama still sits at No. 1 in the College Football Playoff rankings, seemingly just needing to win to be included in the inaugural four-team playoff field. But what if Missouri pulls the upset?

“Pandemonium” is probably the best answer, but we can make sense of the possibilities heading into the weekend. If Alabama falls to Missouri, do they still have a path to reach the playoffs? Let’s run down what would need to happen for the Crimson Tide to have a chance.

  • Oregon needs to beat Arizona on Friday. The committee would need to determine that Alabama is the best two-loss team in the country for them to be included in the playoffs, and that determination starts in the Pac 12 championship. If No. 7 Arizona beats No. 2 Oregon for the second time this year, both of those teams would have a clear case as the best of the twice-defeated teams. Oregon knocking off Arizona for the Pac-12 championship would end the Wildcats hopes, while locking up the Ducks’ playoff spot.
  • Georgia Tech needs to beat Florida State. The Seminoles are hanging onto their top-four standing by a thread, having dropped to No. 4 this week despite running their winning streak to 28 games. With the lack of respect the committee has shown FSU all season, the Seminoles would be in real trouble to miss the playoffs even with their one loss coming in the ACC Championship. No. 4 is the floor for the undefeated Seminoles, so Alabama needs an FSU loss.
  • At least two of TCU, Ohio State and Baylor must lose. It’s not a stretch to see No. 5 Ohio State falling to Melvin Gordon and Wisconsin after quarterback J.T. Barrett was lost for the season, knocking Ohio State down to its third-string quarterback. No. 6 Baylor is in for a fight as well, facing off against No. 9 Kansas State. No. 3 TCU faces 2-9 Iowa State, so Alabama’s fate would likely rest on both Ohio State and Baylor getting upset.

That’s a lot to ask of the rest of college football, but anything can happen in football. If Alabama falls and all of the above plays out, the field would be incredibly murky. Let’s assume Oregon and TCU both win, making them Nos. 1 and 2.

The final two spots would come down to one-loss Florida State and two-loss teams Alabama, Wisconsin, Baylor, Kansas State, Georgia Tech and Ohio State. Missouri, even with the SEC Championship in hand, likely has too much ground to make up due to the nature of its losses, but its not completely out of the question that they would jump up to challenge for a top-four position.

Alabama has been ranked ahead of Florida State since taking out then-No. 1 Mississippi State, but a loss to No. 11 Georgia Tech would be viewed more kindly than one to No. 16 Missouri. But with FSU dropping in the rankings without dropping a game, it seems like the committee is ready for any chance to knock them out of the playoffs completely.

With the respect the committee has shown Alabama over the last month, rating them as the best one-loss team in the country, it’s fair to assume they would be viewed as the best two-loss team as well, barring an embarrassing blowout loss to Mizzou.

The Tide can avoid all of this by simply taking care of business in Atlanta on Saturday. If they don’t, Alabama will need to keep its fingers crossed and hope everything comes up Crimson if they’re to have a shot at the national championship.