They may not have the look of sheer dominance compared to other Crimson Tide teams of old after suffering heavy personnel losses and taking a step back defensively, but Alabama is one of three in the SEC this season with a realistic shot at being the last squad standing when the dust settles in January.

There’s a reason Vegas oddsmakers have put the Crimson Tide out front as 5/2 favorites to win a second consecutive league title and it begins and ends with Nick Saban, the league’s best and most consistent coach who has led his team to the top of the Western Division five times since his arrival in 2007.

Last season’s squad, by most accounts, met expectations by reaching the inaugural College Football Playoff. Alabama shook off an early-season loss in Oxford to entered the postseason as one of the nation’s hottest teams before Ohio State snuffed out that momentum with a prized sophomore running back and third-string playmaker under center.

Getting back for a shot at redemption means the Crimson Tide must exit the SEC gauntlet in December with one loss or fewer considering the perceived strength of other Power 5s labeled as serious title threats. The margin for error’s slim, as is often the case in college football’s most competitive conference, and razor sharp focus — along with executing the ‘process’ — must occur.

Furthermore, here’s a breakdown of Alabama’s path to the College Football Playoff …

Defining factors

  • Will Lane Kiffin find a viable quarterback to run his offense?
  • Can Alabama’s secondary overcome noticeable deficiencies?
  • Is the schedule, featuring as many as eight ranked opponents, navigable?
  • At what point will Alabama’s depth issues in the backfield play a role?

Magic numbers

  • 8: Alabama will play eight games (5 against SEC teams) before its all-important open date
  • 4: Number of healthy running backs on roster heading into fall practice
  • 30: Crimson Tide’s 44-0 when scoring 30 or more points during the regular season since 2010
  • 2: Two of Alabama’s last three league championships have been won by first-year starting QBs

Key stretch

Can Alabama get out of October alive? The Crimson Tide begin and end the brutal month against their cross-divisional opponents (Georgia, Tennessee) with contests against Arkansas and Texas A&M sandwiched between. The game in Athens is particularly worrisome since it’ll be the first true road start for projected starting quarterback Jacob Coker. Last season, Blake Sims lost his first road start at Ole Miss before winning out. November features three games against Western Division rivals, but the final stretch won’t have as much meaning if Alabama struggles before its open date on Halloween. Starting the season 8-0 is essential in getting back to Atlanta.

Final say

Will Kiffin’s offense evolve without Amari Cooper and can Kirby Smart bring Alabama’s defense back to the ‘SEC’s best’ title it owned for six consecutive years prior to last season’s fall to No. 3? These are the million-dollar questions that will dictate just how far the Crimson Tide will advance this fall, from preseason Top 5 to possible CFB Playoff champion. Season-long lackluster play from the secondary didn’t come to the forefront until it was too late last fall, on the national stage as the nation’s top-ranked team playing a red-hot Playoff cinderella. Offensively, Alabama should be able to attack opposing defenses at all angles if it gets consistent production at quarterback. Derrick Henry’s a legitimate Heisman candidate and paired with Kenyan Drake, gives the offense lethal playmakers inside and outside of the tackle box. There’s a couple players on defense capable of All-American seasons within the front seven, but ultimately this team’s overall value comes down to solving problems at the back end and overall execution.