ESPN released its first Football Power Index for 2018 Thursday, and Alabama wasn’t ranked No. 1.

The Clemson Tigers held that distinct honor, as the Crimson Tide were ranked No. 2 just in front of reigning SEC Champion Georgia.

ESPN’s website describes the FPI as follows:

The Football Power Index (FPI) is a measure of team strength that is meant to be the best predictor of a team’s performance going forward for the rest of the season. FPI represents how many points above or below average a team is. Projected results are based on 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season using FPI, results to date, and the remaining schedule. Ratings and projections update daily.

The FPI predicts Alabama will finish with 10.8 wins and 1.8 losses, but interestingly, the index thinks Alabama’s toughest three games will come in the last month of the season. According to the index, Auburn will be Alabama’s toughest game, despite playing AU at home and LSU on the road. Both Tigers are ranked in the top two, but No. 3 is certainly interesting: Mississippi State.

  • Saturday, November 24 vs. Auburn (66.8 percent)
  • Saturday, November 3 at LSU (77.8 percent)
  • Saturday, November 10 vs Mississippi State (79.1 percent)

Outside of the top three, Texas A&M is the other SEC West game to watch out for. The index gives the Tide a 84.2 percent chance to beat the Aggies at Bryant-Denny Stadium on September 22. Alabama’s easiest game, however, comes against The Citadel on November 17. The Tide have a 99.8 percent chance to win, according to the index.