Kirk Herbstreit explains why Alabama is just a 'placeholder' at No. 5
Tua Tagovailoa’s injury made Alabama’s path to the College Football Playoff’ that much more difficult. Already at No. 5 and no longer controlling their own destiny to make the SEC Championship Game, the Tide need several things to fall into place to get a shot at breaking through to the top 4.
During ESPN’s College Football Playoff rankings show on Tuesday, ESPN college football analyst Kirk Herbstreit stated that he didn’t feel that Alabama should be docked for a situation it had no control over in the end. However, the Tide’s fate could rest in how they do in the Iron Bowl.
“I don’t think it’s necessarily fair to punish Bama because of the injury to Tua, but you have to sit and wait to see how they perform in their game against Auburn,” Herbstreit said. “I personally thought that with Tua or without Tua, Alabama eventually after the final games are played would be on the outside looking in. I don’t think this is that Bama team that you just say on the eye test, ‘Oh, they’re much better than everybody else.’ Even with Tua, I felt that, because of how young they are on defense.”
That might make it easier for a team outside of the SEC to move into the top 4 in Georgia slips in the SEC Championship Game next month.
“I think (Alabama is) going to just sit there (at No. 5) and be a placeholder. Eventually you’ll see an opening, and I think that’s where the Pac-12 Champion will get by Georgia (if they lose to LSU) and by Alabama will be the winner of that Oregon-Utah game on Friday night.”
If Alabama beats Auburn convincingly at home, then Bama gets in over Oregon. The Pac-12 shouldn’t be in the conversation. They will get smoked in the playoff.
How does a team – one that can’t even win their division – beating a presumed 4-loss team trump a 12-1 conference champ with what would be a much stronger resume? I get that you’re looking for a backdoor for Bama to sneak in, but if a 12-1 team comes out of the PACCG it’s over for the Tide. Even a 12-1 Big 12 champ could pass them in the rankings. This is where a diet of too many cupcakes causes problems – if your best win is against an 8-4 team, and the one elite team you played rang up almost 50 on you at home, you just don’t have the resume to sell your case.
The only way Bama sneaks in, assuming they win the next two, is for the perfect combination of chaos to break out in two other conferences. And assuming a win at Auburn is a much bigger “if” right now.
If Bama beats the one team that Oregon lost to convincingly, then the committee puts them in assuming all stays status quo. Your argument is already flawed. If Oregon’s resume is so much better than Bama, they would be ahead of them now. Winning the Pac 12 when you couldn’t beat the 5th best team in the SEC. No sir.
First of all, the Committee has already demonstrated “a team that can’t even win their division” can still be one of the 4 best teams in the country. See 2016 Ohio State and 2017 Bama.
Secondly, how does that 11-1 team, whose best win is over a 4-loss team, make a case over a 12-1 conference champion? It’s pretty easy if you’re talking Bama and Oregon. Oregon will have just as many quality wins in that scenario as Alabama and Bama will have beaten that 4-loss team (Auburn) on the road while that same 4-loss team beat Oregon on a neutral field. How does a team that wins the worst or next to worst conference, that loses on a neutral field to the 5th best team in the SEC, make an argument that they’re better than the second best team in the SEC?
2016 Ohio State was one of the 4 best teams when it came to losing 31-0 to Clemson, but otherwise it was not.
1. That Bama team got in at 11-1 because the champions of the Big Ten and the Pac-12 had multiple losses. Same with that Ohio State team, the Big-12 didn’t have a title game and the Big Ten champion Penn State had two losses.
2. The Horned Frogs in 2011 were left out at 11-1 despite having several quality wins and the one loss being to #5 Baylor, because the Big-12 didn’t play conference championship games. That usually will establish that 11-1 won’t get in over 12-1 conference champion.
3. That Ohio State team lost 31-0 to Clemson.