Switching head coaches rarely makes an instant impact, but that doesn’t stop fanbases from looking for some sign of improvement in Year 1 under the new coach. Teaching the returning players new systems and recruiting new players better fit for the system can be a multi-year process. But better head coaching in game-planning and decision-making can sometimes be evident from Game 1.

A 4-8 season was enough to make Arkansas finally part with Bret Bielema and start new with former SMU head coach and Clemson offensive coordinator Chad Morris. ESPN’s Football Power Index – the World Wide Leader’s “measure of team strength that is meant to be the best predictor of a team’s performance going forward” based on simulations – says Year 1 of the Morris era will be better than the final year of the Bielema era.

ESPN’s preseason projection is that Arkansas goes 6-6 based on FPI. The Hogs are projected to start strong with a clean sweep of Eastern Illinois (Sept. 1, 98.3 chance win probability), Colorado State (Sept. 8, 80.4 percent), and North Texas (Sept. 15, 83.2 percent).

The FPI has the Hogs in trouble when SEC West play starts, dropping three in a row to Auburn (Sept. 22, 9.2 percent), Texas A&M (Sept. 29, 26.7 percent) and Alabama (Oct. 6, 12.5 percent).

The Hogs are projected to go 3-3 again in the second half of the season by FPI, bouncing back with wins over Ole Miss (Oct. 13, 52.1 percent), Tulsa (Oct. 20, 82.2 percent) and Vanderbilt (Oct. 27, 80.1 percent). But the final three game of stretch LSU (Nov. 10, 45 percent), Mississippi State (Nov. 17, 16.5 percent) and Missouri (Nov. 23, 27.7 percent) could kill any momentum.