There’s no denying that Auburn’s starting lineup can compete for titles in 2018. A Heisman candidate at QB combined with an elite defense, particularly up front, generally bodes well in terms of the ultimate success of a season.

The road to titles won’t be easy, though. Their schedule is one of the most difficult in the country, and features games against teams ranked No. 25, No. 18, No. 6, No. 3 and No. 1 in the preseason AP poll, with only one of those games being played at home.

So, which are the 5 games that will ultimately determine Auburn’s postseason plans?

5. Week 1 vs. No. 6 Washington

This game can help the Tigers far more than it can hurt them. If the Tigers win, great, that’s a top-10 win on their resume, and it’ll probably look better and better as the year goes on, because Washington appears to really only have one other team that will compete with them for the Pac-12, and that’s Stanford. Having a “W” against a Power 5 conference champ and likely top-10 team looks good on any resume, especially for an SEC team already playing a tough schedule.

If the Tigers lose, however, it’s not a Playoff-ending loss. They can run the table and still win the division and the conference for an easy spot in the Playoff. Last year they lost early to Clemson and also an SEC game and still almost made the Playoff because it beat Alabama and Georgia. So, a win here would be great, but a loss won’t prematurely end their postseason goals.

4. Week 3 vs. No. 25 LSU

These two programs historically play each other really well. They’ve split the past four, and the past two games were decided by a combined 9 points. It should also be noted that this game is being played at Jordan-Hare Stadium, and the home team has won this game 16 of the past 18 years. Auburn should enter this game heavily favored and is a far better team in terms of personnel, especially on offense, but both teams will have a lot to be playing for in this game.

Credit: Derick E. Hingle-USA TODAY Sports

If LSU loses to Miami in Week 1, the heat under Ed Orgeron’s seat will only get hotter, making this Week 3 matchup a virtual must-win for him, so the Bayou Bengals could have with some extra incentive. For Auburn, a win is to be expected, so there’s not much to gain, only something to lose. Considering the mediocre expectations for LSU this season (likely a 7- to 8-win team), a loss for Auburn in this game could be devastating.

3. Week 6 at No. 18 Mississippi State

The Tigers have had a pretty strong grasp on the Bulldogs the past 2 years – winning by a combined 63 points – but the series is split over the past 6 years. This is also the best team Mississippi State has fielded in 20-plus years, so this is far from a cakewalk for the Tigers. Aside from Alabama, MSU is the toughest competitor for the Tigers in their quest for SEC West supremacy.

More than likely this will also be a night game, and playing in Davis Wade Stadium at night, when the fans have had all day to “prepare,” with their cowbells clanging relentlessly, with Playoff hopes potentially at stake – the place will be a raucous environment. A win will essentially put Auburn just two big steps away from Atlanta and a Playoff berth.

2. Week 11 at No. 3 Georgia

Auburn is one of just two teams nationally who has the extreme misfortune of playing Alabama and Georgia every year (Tennessee being the other), and the game against the Dawgs always falls two weeks before the Iron Bowl, meaning a win can give them some momentum heading into the final game, but a loss can also be the start of a slide.

In fact, the game against Georgia is generally a pretty good indicator of how the Tigers fare against the Tide, especially as of late. In the past 10 years, every time Auburn has beaten Georgia, it has beaten Alabama. Every time it has lost to Georgia, it also lost to Alabama. Considering how talented UGA is this year, this is an absolutely enormous game.

1. Week 13 at No. 1 Alabama

As if this isn’t already known. Almost every year, the Iron Bowl is a play-in game for who gets to go to Atlanta to represent the West in the SEC Championship Game. Just once in the past 10 years has someone other than Alabama or Auburn represented the West, and that likely won’t change in 2018.

It’s possible for Auburn to lose this game and still get into the playoffs – see Alabama, 2017 – but many other things would have to fall in their favor from a national perspective for that to happen. For that to even be a possibility, Auburn would have to 11-1 at the end of the season, and hope that Washington wins the Pac-12 and Georgia beats Bama in the conference title game. An 11-1 Auburn team with wins over 2 power-5 champions would almost ensure a spot in the Playoff, unless a few teams finish the regular season undefeated.

Having said all that, the best way for Auburn to win the West and have a chance at a conference title and Playoff berth would be to simply beat Alabama, like last year. Auburn hasn’t beaten Alabama in consecutive years since Nick Saban arrived.

The Tigers have the talent to win championships this year, there’s no doubt about that. But they have a brutally tough road to get there. However, they also have the opportunity to build as good of a resume as anyone else in the country by the time the Playoff committee decides who’s in and who’s out.