Will the SEC’s preseason darling reach the College Football Playoff this fall?

One of the perceived favorites last season, Auburn fell flat late following a 7-1 start, struggling defensively down the stretch amid four losses over its final five contests — a far cry from a BCS Championship Game appearance with almost the same roster in 2013.

Equipped with several newcomers on defense, a quarterback with Heisman odds and one of the nation’s top receivers, the Tigers certainly have the look of a team that could make noise throughout the season inside the Top 10 and be in the conversation approaching December.

THE CASE FOR AUBURN

The obvious strength for the Tigers this season that they didn’t have last fall is the addition of Will Muschamp, considered by most to be college football’s top defensive mind. Auburn plucked Muschamp from Florida after the Gators announced mid-November he would not return for 2015. He is tasked with revitalizing a unit that struggled with its pass rush and tackling last season, finishing 10th in the SEC in scoring defense.

Auburn welcomes back much-needed edge rusher Carl Lawson from injury and two senior linebackers (Cassanova McKinzy and Kris Frost) who Muschamp will center his scheme around in hopes of producing better results on the Plains.

Here are a few other reasons that the Tigers could make the College Football Playoff in 2015:

  • The last three times Auburn won at least 12 games (2013, 2010, 2004), the Tigers lost five times or more the previous the season. History could repeat itself.
  • During the five seasons Gus Malzahn has called plays at Auburn, the Tigers have featured the SEC’s leading rusher three of those years, including back-to-back since his return. The addition of the nation’s top-rated JUCO back Jovon Robinson gives Auburn a realistic shot at doing it again.
  • The Tigers replace two starters in  a secondary that picked off an SEC-high 22 passes last season, but feel they’ve improved overall at the back end thanks to former Georgia transfer Tray Matthews and versatile senior starter Joshua Holsey.
  • Often limited through the air with defensive back-turned-quarterback Nick Marshall, Auburn has a new wrinkle under center with NFL-level talent in Jeremy Johnson, one of the SEC’s favorites to win the Heisman. And he’s the most accurate passer the Tigers have had since Cam Newton in 2010.
  • Auburn boasts three offensive linemen with All-SEC buzz entering the season and is confident projected sophomore starters Austin Golson and Braden Smith will make the Tigers’ offensive front one of the SEC’s best this fall.
  • Peeking at the Tigers’ treacherous schedule, arguably three of Auburn’s four toughest games will come at Jordan-Hare Stadium — Ole Miss, Georgia and Alabama. And the Tigers have the luxury of playing at Death Valley early in the season (Sept. 19) when LSU probably won’t have its quarterback situation worked out yet.

THE CASE AGAINST AUBURN

One of several nationally-ranked threats in the Western Division, therein lies the primary challenge for the Tigers — there are others dotting the schedule equally talented with a similar championship mindset entering August.

Here are a couple reasons why Auburn may not reach the Playoff:

  • The five-game SEC gauntlet pre-Alabama following Auburn’s early-October bye week is among the nation’s toughest stretches this season and that’s in addition to September battles at LSU and vs. Mississippi State.
  • What if Johnson isn’t Cam Newton 2.0 and the Tigers suffer from average play under center? Malzahn needs this dynamic dual-threat to deliver and perform at an elite-level indicative of legitimate Heisman candidates. Will Johnson fold under immense pressure as a first-year starter?
  • Nothing against Muschamp, but Rome wasn’t built in a day and expecting Coach Boom to complete a 180-turnaround defensively in Year 1 may be asking too much on a unit that has depth concerns in several areas. We all like the pieces in place, especially five-star freshman Byron Cowart who will assume Muschamp’s ‘Buck’ role, but execution and knowing where to be will remain Auburn’s No. 1 foe against several prolific spread-based offenses.
  • Golson is the odds-on favorite to replace longtime starter Reese Dismukes (the 2014 Rimington winner) at center, likely the most important position within Auburn’s tempo-driven attack. It’s vital that Golson takes charge and steps into a leadership role up front. A noticeable slip in the middle would damage this offense’s rhythm leading to catastrophic results.

THE ODDS

Let’s put this out there first — the Western Division champion will make the Playoff if it can beat another Top 10 team in Atlanta for the SEC Championship. The chances any team goes through the 12-game regular-season gauntlet unscathed in the SEC is slim, but the Tigers may now have the weapons on both sides of the football to do so. Auburn will face as many as nine ranked teams this season prior to the Playoff if it reaches the league title game, a terrifying nightmare you wouldn’t wish on your worst enemy.