Something’s not adding up on the Auburn preseason hype meter this summer heading into Gus Malzahn’s third season on the Plains.

Equipped with one of college football’s top defensive coaches and a quarterback they’re calling Cam Newton 2.0, the Tigers are a near consensus preseason Top 5 as one of three SEC frontrunners, but Vegas oddsmakers have placed Auburn’s win projection at a measly 8.5 — on par with four other league teams but behind Alabama and Georgia.

Have the ‘experts’ uncovered a fallacy we know nothing about?

Ask anyone associated with the program how they would feel about a 9-3 regular season and most would be a bit perplexed before answering — after all, this is a team that reloaded in the offseason with several additions that should transform a fringe contender to the odds-on favorite considering questions involving the rest of the field.

We’re banking on Jeremy Johnson > Nick Marshall and the Tigers’ defense to be considerably better under their new leader. Whether that’s enough to navigate a treacherous SEC schedule ends remains to be seen.

Furthermore, here’s a breakdown of Auburn’s path to the College Football Playoff …

Defining factors

  • Can Jeremy Johnson meet lofty preseason expectations?
  • Will Muschamp’s impact defensively
  • Defensive line pressure, notably Carl Lawson’s return from injury
  • Jovon Robinson’s ability to replicate Cameron Artis-Payne’s production

Magic numbers

  • 5: Wins needed by the bye week (Oct. 10) to stay on pace in the SEC West and inside the Top 10 nationally
  • 8: Possible games against ranked teams; Tigers need to win at least seven to keep goals in sight
  • 5.67: Yards per play given up last fall, second-worst in the division and a number that must improve
  • 24: Auburn has beaten LSU 9 of the last 10 times it has scored 24 or more points

Key stretch

Auburn’s three final SEC games in November scheduled around a home bout with Idaho will likely decide the Tigers’ fate this fall and marked the moment everything unraveled last season. The Tigers’ fall from grace began on the Plains against Texas A&M and ended with losses to Georgia and Alabama to squander all hopes at a division title. Those three opponents will come in identical order again, but this time, Auburn gets the Bulldogs and Crimson Tide inside Jordan-Hare Stadium. Three wins would likely secure a berth in the SEC Championship Game. Can Malzahn’s team withstand the SEC’s toughest home slate this season? This November stretch is the most important.

Final say

Since coming back to Auburn and taking over as head coach, Malzahn is 8-6 against ranked teams including a 5-0 mark during the Tigers’ spirited run to the BCS Championship Game during the 2013 season. Auburn shook off an early-September loss to sixth-ranked LSU to be come the center of attention in college football this side of Tallahassee (thanks, Jameis). A similar formula (preferably without a September setback) must be followed this fall for it to happen again. The Tigers may not be forced to win nine straight games to get there, but as always, it’s better to lose earlier than late in the eyes of the committee.

No matter how you slice it, a 6-2 finish in the Western Division won’t be enough to get to Atlanta, much less reach the CFB Playoff this season. Based on Vegas’ predictions and the fact Auburn’s schedule is among the nation’s toughest, getting to the Final Four will be a tremendous challenge for Malzahn and his crew, but the Tigers have already proven an ability to get hot at the right time and they’re counting on quarterback Jeremy Johnson — along with Muschamp — to be an ace up their sleeve this season.