NCAA Tournament review and preview: A beatdown, an upset and a dogfight on Day 1, and a big Day 2 ahead
Thursday began with 6 SEC teams and it ended with 5, although the one that went home was probably one of the most unexpected.
To open the day, Tennessee absolutely bludgeoned No. 14 seed Longwood into submission, with the Vols looking like every bit of a Final Four team. In the day’s second game, Kentucky suffered its biggest seeding upset in program history, falling to No. 15 Saint Peter’s in an upset as shocking as any in NCAA history — well, any not involving Virginia and UMBC. Finally, Arkansas went toe-to-toe with No. 13 seed Vermont and delivered the game of the day. The Hogs led by 7 at halftime, and survived a Vermont rally to pick up a 75-71 win and move on to the next round.
First, Tennessee. UT’s 88-56 win over Longwood wasn’t even as close as the score. The Vols absolutely buried their opponent early, holding a 54-29 halftime lead en route to the easy win. UT shot 60% for the game, including a 14-for-24 clip from 3-point range, outrebounded Longwood by a +8 margin, and had 4 fewer turnovers. UT also had 29 assists on 33 baskets, which shows just how well the Vols shared the ball. Santiago Vescovi sank 6 3-pointers to pace the Vols, but UT ended up with 5 double-figure scorers, including an offensive explosion from John Fulkerson, who had 15 points in 16 minutes of playing time. Yes, UT will face significantly better opponents the rest of the way. But it was hard to watch this game and not envision a fairly long rest of the way for the Vols.
On the other hand, Kentucky played like Oscar Tshiebwe and a collection of random guys he met walking into the arena. Tshiebwe was outstanding, with 30 points and 16 rebounds. But Kentucky’s perimeter players looked lost, with TyTy Washington and Kellan Grady both suffering through horrible shooting games and giving up scads of 3-pointers to a gutty Saint Peter’s squad. Kentucky led 68-62 with 3 minutes to play, but tried to put the game in the deep freeze a bit prematurely. The Wildcats had the last shot at the end of regulation, but Washington missed an awkward jumper, and the teams went to overtime. Once there, UK went 1-for-6 at the foul line and again coughed up a lead, losing to the Peacocks 85-79.
It’s as tough of a loss as UK has suffered in recent memory, and between a horrible year last season and the cancellation of the 2020 Tournament, it’s now been 3 years without UK winning an NCAA Tournament game, a feat not replicated since probation knocked UK out of the Tournament in 1990 and 1991.
To finish the day, Arkansas had a good battle, exchanging body blows with a challenging Vermont squad that many thought had a solid chance to upset the Razorbacks. Arkansas survived in part thanks to a +8 rebounding margin over the Catamounts and to finishing the game with just 4 turnovers. Arkansas led by 7 at halftime and stretched the lead to 36-27 on a JD Notae layup to open the second half.
From there, Vermont answered with a 12-0 run to take the lead. The teams swapped leads, with Vermont last holding the advantage at 51-50 with 9:49 to play. Down the stretch, Arkansas’ veteran guards made enough plays to grab the win, with Stanley Umude leading 4 Razorbacks in double figures with 21 points. Notae started slow but had all 17 of his points in the 2nd half.
Friday will open with Auburn facing No. 15 Jacksonville State. J-State didn’t win their conference tournament, but since Bellarmine was ineligible for the NCAA Tournament thanks to recently moving up from NCAA Division II, the Gamecocks instead got the nod. Like Kentucky, Auburn looked like one of the best teams in the nation at times this season, but didn’t finish the year playing its best basketball. That said, the Tigers should be able to avoid the Wildcats’ disappearing act, and advance to fight another day.
Friday’s second game will be Alabama against a likely weary Notre Dame squad that outlasted Rutgers in the First Four to earn the matchup. The Tide are favored by 4 points, even though Bama lost their last 3 games of the season to date. Meanwhile, Notre Dame lost 2 of their last 3 before their double-overtime win over Rutgers, so it’s not like the Fighting Irish are exactly red-hot. The Tide are 6th in the nation in offensive rebounds this season, meanwhile Notre Dame is 337th in the category. That edge could well be the difference in the game, particularly if the Tide aren’t hitting their long-range attempts. The preliminary guess is that Alabama puts together enough boards to win by 5.
Friday’s finale is the wildest game of the day. The Kevin Nickelberry era begins at LSU, where the Tigers face No. 11 seed Iowa State. The good news for LSU is that Iowa State is pretty awful at offense. They failed to break 50 points 5 times this season, including a 53-36 loss to Oklahoma State on March 2nd. LSU, of course, is a stout defensive squad … but also one playing under a black cloud and without Will Wade. Initially, the turmoil around the program felt like a big deal. But on further consideration, that program has been full of turmoil for the last several years. What’s another game of dealing with it? This feels like a 58-52 kind of game, and LSU will be the victor.
