The Best College Football Upset Picks for Week 5
The college football season has begun to take shape and Week 5 features a healthy slate of interesting matchups. We have chosen three teams that we believe likely to cover their underdog spreads and perhaps even upset their opponents with an outright win.
Let’s jump into our best bets and top college football upset picks for Week 5, backed up with complete betting analysis.
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Best College Football Upsets for Week 5
Rutgers To Put a Scare (Sort of) Into Ohio State
Rutgers has lost all seven meetings with Ohio State since joining the Big Ten back in 2014 with the Buckeyes scoring 49 or more points in all seven contests. However, Rutgers has only allowed 54 total points through four games this season with no opponent topping 20 points. It’s unlikely OSU is going to hit that 49-point mark again this time. And if the streak can end, so can the reign of terror the Buckeyes have enjoyed over the Scarlet Knights both straight up and against the spread.
Rutgers has figured a few things out against Ohio State of late, at least from a spread perspective. They have covered the last two head-to-head meetings and even played level football for three of four quarters in last season’s affair, matching OSU’s 27 points in the first, third, and fourth quarters combined.
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Rutgers should prove a different animal this time around, playing Ohio State in Piscataway with a packed house behind them. More importantly, Rutgers has Greg Schiano at the helm for the first time since switching conferences. The Scarlet Knights are loaded with returning starters from last year’s team and currently boast the nation’s seventh best scoring defense (13.5 ppg) and 11th best total defense (262.8 ypg).
On the other side, Buckeyes quarterback, C.J. Stroud is still dinged up after missing last week’s game, and could now be part of a positional battle with Kyle McCord, who played well in Stroud’s absence against Akron. Worse yet are the issues on the other side of the ball as defensive coordinator Kerry Coombs had play calling duties snatched from him last week and the program lost two once-starting linebackers to the transfer portal in the last two weeks.
Is this team’s undivided attention fully on trying to cover better than two touchdowns against a quality Rutgers opponent playing in its own building?
The Rutgers #ScarletKnights are hanging around against the Michigan #Wolverines @aaronyoung04 @RFootball #CFB #Rutgers #Touchdown #Football pic.twitter.com/82KMJndyzE
— Midwest Sports Network (@MWSNsports) September 25, 2021
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It won’t help that Ohio State, which beat Akron 59-7 last Saturday, is just 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games after scoring 40 points. In fact, the Buckeyes are just 2-6 ATS in their last eight games after a straight up win by 21 or more points and have covered just one of their last five games as a favorite. Further, OSU is just 1-5 ATS in its last six games following a cover and is just 1-7 ATS in its last eight as conference road favorites of 20 or less coming off a double-digit straight up victory against a sub .500 opponent.
Rutgers, which mustered just 13 points in its seven point loss to Michigan last week, has covered six straight games after failing to reach 20 points prior. The Scarlet Knights, who are 5-1 ATS in their last six games before next week’s opponent, Michigan State, have covered four straight against above .500 opponents and six of the last seven at home against above .500 road teams.
Ohio State vs. Rutgers Pick
Schiano is 38-26 ATS in his career off a SU loss and is 20-16 ATS as a home dog. His team went 4-1 ATS last season off a SU loss and has covered five of the last six in that role. This team has also gone 5-2 ATS in its last seven tries as underdogs. Ohio State’s defense pales in comparison to Rutgers’ and the Buckeyes should have a tough time pulling away on the road here.
Our Pick: Rutgers +15 (DraftKings Sportsbook -105)
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Baylor Gets Revenge from COVID-delayed Blowout Last Season
Last season’s Baylor-Oklahoma State game was postponed from Oct. 17 to Dec. 12 due to a COVID-19 outbreak amongst the Bears. So, what would have been a 1-1 Baylor team entering the game became a disheartened 2-6 Bears bunch that ended up facing the Cowboys in their final game of a very disappointing season. As you might then expect, the Bears got steamrolled by a 42-3 margin on their home field, ending the season with a very bitter taste in their mouths.
It seems Baylor has not forgotten the feelings brought up by last season’s poor performances, as the team has stormed out of the gate at 4-0 SU, covering each of its last three games, including an outright underdog win against the ranked Cyclones of Iowa State last week.
A thing of beauty @Humble_Ty19#SicEm | #BUncommon pic.twitter.com/JBk4pBTfvf
— Baylor Football (@BUFootball) September 30, 2021
This experienced Bears side, which returned 17 starters from last season, has been a revelation on both sides of the ball. Baylor currently sits 16th offensively in total yards, including sixth best in rush yards per game (272.0), and has amassed the 11th most points per game in the nation (42.8).
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Defensively, they boast a top-20 scoring defense (15.8 ppg) that will face just the 92nd best scoring offense of Oklahoma State (25.8 ppg). The Bears also own the 13th best pass defense in the nation, which should help neutralize Cowboys quarterback Spencer Sanders’ arm, which threw for 344 yards last week against Kansas State.
Smiling all the way to the endzone.
? @JayD__5 pic.twitter.com/TcmzdMKTVd
— Sun Devil Football (@ASUFootball) September 28, 2021
Oklahoma State has covered just one of its last five home games, all as favorites, as well as just two of its last seven against Big 12 opposition. This Cowboys team, which has not scored a single point in either of its last two second halves, is just 1-9 ATS in its last 10 games as favorites versus opponents off back-to-back SU and ATS wins.
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Baylor fits that bill and also won its last trip to Stillwater 45-27 as six-point underdogs two seasons ago. The Bears are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 against above .500 foes and are 11-5-1 ATS in their last 17 road games. They are also 11-3-1 ATS in their last 15 games as underdogs, including 7-1-1 ATS as road pups. The Bears have rattled off an amazing 15 straight covers as conference dogs when facing an opponent off a SU and ATS win, like the Cowboys are.
Baylor vs. Oklahoma State Pick
Look for Baylor head coach Dave Aranda to make it a perfect 3-0 ATS in his time in Waco versus opposing teams off a SU win with a big revenge victory here.
Our Pick: Baylor +3.5 (DraftKings Sportsbook -110)
Sun Devils End Bruins’ Four-Year ATS Run in Head-to-Head Meetings
Arizona State finished last season on the team’s own terms, electing to stay home instead of participate in a bowl game after a 2-2 Pac-12 regular season. The team obviously left 2020 unsatisfied as head coach Herm Edwards was able to return 20 starters from last season’s team, including the entire starting defense, which was already the conference’s best in points per game allowed. In fact, albeit in a truncated season, the Sun Devils led the entire nation in turnover differential in 2020 with a +2.0 mark that was 0.7 better than any other team in the FBS ranks.
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That amazing differential was clearly no mirage either, as the Sun Devils’ defense has already generated the fifth most takeaways in the country in 2021. In fact, Arizona State’s defensive mission has been as clear as day this season as they currently sit sixth in the country in total yards allowed per game, fifth in passing yards allowed, and 22nd in points allowed. They have dropped four straight ATS to UCLA, but are 14-2 ATS when playing with revenge versus an opponent off a SU and ATS victory.
The Sun Devils have covered four of their last five against Pac-12 schools and four of their last five on the road. They are also 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven games in the underdog role, as well as 5-2 ATS in their last seven as road dogs.
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UCLA could be set up for a letdown here, entering off an emotional road win against in-state rivals, Stanford, last week, a game in which the Bruins’ talented dual-threat quarterback Dorian Thompson-Robinson injured his throwing arm. The team’s head coach, Chip Kelly, entered the season just 6-11 ATS at home in his UCLA tenure, including just 2-6 ATS as home favorites.
The Bruins are just 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games as favorites, including 3-8 ATS when laying points at home. Going back further, you will find that they are just 17-24 ATS as home favorites across the last decade. They have covered just seven of their last 24 spreads after a SU win and are just 13-30 ATS in their last 33 October games, the point in the season when conference play is thickest.
Arizona State vs. UCLA Pick
Look for the dog in this head-to-head series to move to 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings as Arizona State’s defense shines and the Sun Devils’ own dual-option quarterback, Jayden Daniels, exploits a Bruins pass defense that allows 330.3 passing yards per game, the fifth most in the land.
Our Pick: Arizona State +3.5 (FanDuel Sportsbook -122)
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