While 16 teams remain undefeated in the FBS ranks of college football, only three stay perfect against the spread. Cincinnati and Kentucky are the only two schools to still be blemish-free in both categories. Which teams will drop from these lists in Week 6 of the season? We have our eye on two in particular that we believe could finally slip up.

Let’s jump into our best bets and top college football upset picks for Week 6, backed with complete betting analysis.

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Best College Football Upsets for Week 6

Oklahoma vs. Texas

While first-year coaches at Texas have not had a ton of success in their inaugural Red River Showdowns, we think head coach Steve Sarkisian’s Longhorns have a veritable chance to turn that trend on its head here against what we believe is a vastly overvalued Oklahoma team.

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Any quarterback factory like Oklahoma that regularly contends for a conference title and a spot in the College Football Playoff, while also being undefeated and possessing the preseason favorite to win the Heisman Trophy, is going to receive a lot of respect — deserving or not.

However, this Sooners bunch has done little to convince us they are legitimate contenders this season and we are confident their unbeaten run should end at the Cotton Bowl in Dallas this weekend against Texas.

Despite being double-digit favorites in all five wins this season, the only Oklahoma victory to come by more than seven points was against FCS member Western Carolina. The Sooners limped to narrow wins over Tulane, Nebraska, West Virginia, and Kansas State, with all but the K-State victory coming in Norman. Oklahoma did not outgain any of its FBS foes by more than 40 yards, drawing the eye to the Sooners’ 83rd-ranked pass defense (241.4 yards per game) and 43rd-ranked overall defense (325.0 yards per game).

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Those are hardly the marks of a team contending for another CFP berth, especially when you realize that this Spencer Rattler-led offense is just 30th in passing yards per game, 76th in rushing yards per game, and 43rd in total yards per game. In fact, you could make the argument that the only reason this team has a winning record right now is because its offense has somehow miraculously avoided turning the ball over yet.

Oklahoma head coach Lincoln Riley must have some concerns coming in here with a mediocre defense and an offense that has far from reached the lofty heights expected of it. After all, the Sooners had entered the season having played 63 straight games in which they had scored 27 or more points, but they have already played two games in 2021 where they failed to hit that number, managing just 23 points against Nebraska and 16 against West Virginia.

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Making matters worse, Riley is just 1-5 ATS in his coaching career against teams off back-to-back SU and ATS wins and Oklahoma is just 7-12 ATS over the last seven seasons in neutral field games.

On the flip side, you have a motivated Texas team whose offense is clicking on all cylinders and who play here with massive revenge from its four overtime loss to Oklahoma in last year’s version of this rivalry. The Longhorns boast a top-20 yardage offense led by a ground game ranked fifth best in FBS (268.8 yards per game). Texas has only turned it over once this season and have the sixth best points per game mark in the country with a 43.8 point average.

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Given that Texas has covered six of its last seven overall and 12 of its last 17 on grass, this could be the wrong time for Oklahoma to bump into the Longhorns. Texas has gone 12-3 ATS in the last seven seasons on neutral fields, including 5-1 ATS in their last six tries. They have also covered eight of their last 10 when getting points at a neutral location.

Oklahoma vs. Texas Pick

Oklahoma has covered just two of the last nine head-to-head meetings between these two teams, listed as favorites in each of those affairs. They should finally get fully exposed in 2021 against the best offense they have faced yet.

Our Pick: Texas +3.5 (DraftKings Sportsbook -115)

Nebraska vs. Michigan

Michigan head coach Jim Harbaugh entered the season with his back glued firmly to the wall, needing an impressive campaign to keep the wolves at bay regarding his job security. The Wolverines have done everything necessary thus far to impress, rattling off five straight wins to begin the 2021 campaign. However, this Saturday’s matchup with Nebraska could prove a major hiccup in the team’s journey.

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For starters, this will be Michigan’s first trip to Lincoln in nine years and that last visit saw them rush for negative yardage and fail to reach the endzone in a 23-9 loss. Harbaugh, who is just 11-15 ATS on the road at Michigan, including 9-12 ATS as a road favorite, will be tasked with trying to knock off a Nebraska group that is starting to believe in itself after a 56-7 rout of Northwestern last weekend.

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Michigan, a school that is just 34-43-1 ATS off a SU win over the last decade, has benefited from not turning the ball over yet on offense in 2021. That type of perfection is difficult to sustain, especially when playing just its second road game of the season, also the backend of a back-to-back away spot. It’s worth noting here that despite being ranked each time, Michigan lost its last three second legs of back-to-back road conference games outright. Each loss came by seven or more points, with the Wolverines averaging less than 15 points per game while allowing over 31.

On the other side, another coach who entered the season under fire, Scott Frost, has gotten his Cornhuskers rolling offensively, as they currently average the 11th most yards per game in the nation (503.7). Nebraska has not lost any of its last five games ATS as an underdog and has covered five of its last seven here at home.

The Huskers have also lost just one of their last five games ATS following an ATS victory and are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games after allowing 19 points or less prior.

Michigan vs. Nebraska Pick

In fact, they are a solid 4-1 ATS in their last five games following a SU victory of 21 or more points. They have not lost a game against the spread since their Week 0 letdown against Illinois and we expect them to extend that streak to six straight here with an upset of the undefeated Wolverines who really have not been tested yet this season.

Our Pick: Nebraska +3.5 (PointsBet -110)

Utah vs. USC

What a delicious spot for one of the nation’s best coaches, Kyle Whittingham, as his Utah Utes had a bye week to prepare for an unrested USC team playing just its fourth game under an interim head coach. The Trojans have also failed to cover, or even win, either of their two conference home games this season, losing both outright as double-digit favorites.

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The Utes should enter here as focused and properly motivated as possible. After all, they will be looking to end a nearly century-old winless run at the Coliseum and will be playing their first game since losing safety Aaron Lowe to a shooting just hours after their last game.

Utah will look to extend a nine-game cover streak on the road against opponents with an .850 winning-percentage or less when coming off a double-digit straight up victory. USC, which defeated Colorado 37-14 last week, should do its part to help the cause, as the Trojans are just 2-5 ATS in their last seven games following a 21+ point win.

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Whittingham, who is 18-5 ATS on the road against opponents off a double-digit straight up win, is also a stellar 19-11 ATS when coming off a bye week. His Utes have gone 35-22 ATS on the road under his tutelage, which includes a 24-15 ATS record as a road dog (12-2 ATS in that role the last seven years).

In fact, the program is stellar when getting points, even before Whittingham took the reins. Utah is 46-22-2 ATS in its last 70 outings as an underdog, including 35-16-1 ATS in its last 52 as road underdogs. This gives us comfort when staring at Utah’s 0-4 ATS record this season, as this will be the Utes’ first game playing the underdog role in 2021.

The Utes have been stellar in conference play, covering 11 of their last 14 and 18 of their last 24 games against Pac-12 opponents. They beat Washington State 24-13 in their last game, making it worth noting that they have covered nine of their last 11 games following a SU win and six of their last eight after allowing less than 20 points in their previous outing.

Utah vs. USC Pick

Being one of three teams in the country last season to have freshmen make better than 30 percent of its starts, while also returning 19 starters from last year’s team, you had to expect them to take a few weeks to get going, but once they did, they would roll. Coming off the bye, expect this to be a turning point in the Utes’ season as they finally end USC’s home reign of terror.

Our Pick: Utah +3.5 (FanDuel Sportsbook -124)

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