Last weekend may not have brought us our biggest upset of the year in relation to the point spread or moneyline, but it certainly did in terms of a prominent team going down. Texas A&M knocked off Alabama, blowing the CFP wide open while allowing Georgia to steal the nation’s top spot. Iowa survived Penn State, Michigan State held off an upset bid by Nebraska, and Oklahoma engineered a comeback for the ages to win and cover against underdogs Texas, keeping all of those victorious teams undefeated. Will more chaos steal the show in Week 7? Let’s get into it.

Let’s jump into our best bets and top college football upset picks for Week 7, backed with complete betting analysis.

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Best College Football Upsets for Week 6

Michigan State vs. Indiana

Michigan State is receiving upwards of 90 percent of the bets thus far ahead of its game against Indiana, despite laying points on the road to a team that shut them out 24-0 in East Lansing last fall. That’s what a 6-0 SU start to the season will do for you when your opponent is just 2-3 SU and 1-4 ATS. However, there is good reason to think Indiana can keep this one close.

For starters, the Hoosiers enter off a bye week, a luxury not provided to the Spartans. Indiana is 4-0 ATS in its last four games following a bye, which could be the edge they need here against what we will likely look back and describe as an overvalued Spartans bunch.

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Keep in mind, Indiana had run off seven straight covers against Big Ten opponents before dropping both ATS versus conference foes thus far in 2021. However, when you look at those two SU and ATS defeats in Big Ten play this season, you realize they came on the road against Iowa and Penn State, two teams who were clearly undervalued at the time. Is any team going to leave this season hanging its head about dropping games at those two programs?

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And Michigan State, despite its great SU run to start 2021, was still just 3-11 ATS over the last three seasons off a straight up win and is on a current run of covering just one of its last nine games following an ATS win. Also, the victories the Spartans earned this season are beginning to look a bit overblown. They narrowly escaped a loss to Nebraska at home in overtime and their three road wins came at three schools who are clearly way down this season (Northwestern, Miami, Rutgers).

Is a Michigan State group that is just 2-7 ATS in its last nine games against sub .500 opposition and has covered just six of its last 22 Big Ten games really going to travel to Bloomington and roll over a Hoosiers team that has covered seven of its last 10 at home and 12 of its last 16 against above .500 foes?

Michigan State vs. Indiana Pick

The Hoosiers have had two weeks to figure out how to bounce back after their 24-0 defeat at Penn State and we trust them to do so, given their current 8-3 ATS streak in their last 11 games following an ATS loss. Look for Indiana to show well here in its homecoming game and make a real push to win the battle for the Old Brass Spittoon.

Our Pick: Indiana +5 (PointsBet -110)

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Texas A&M vs. Missouri

One of the most difficult things for a team to do is to get mentally up against inferior competition after pulling off a major upset of a superior foe. That’s the task at hand for Texas A&M here as they travel to Missouri to face the 3-3 Tigers, a team which has yet to cover a spread this season.

Texas A&M shocked the world on Saturday, knocking off the nation’s top team, Alabama, turning the playoff picture on its head. Imagine the unbridled joy that must have resonated through the A&M players, coaches, and campus through and well beyond the weekend. Would anyone be surprised if these young men were still basking in the glow of their remarkable achievement? After all, it had been 106 tries since an unranked team knocked off the AP No. 1 school.

Aggies head coach Jimbo Fisher also became the first former assistant of Nick Saban to beat his old boos, a streak that had run to 24-0 prior to last Saturday. How does Fisher and his staff refocus here, let alone get their jubilant bunch to do the same?

Missouri’s head coach Eliah Drinkwitz will surely look to exploit this possible vulnerability. He has the benefit of having a bye after this with a cakewalk matchup against Vanderbilt to follow. He can pour every ounce of attention and effort into this game which could put his team at 4-3 ahead of an almost automatic win, setting the Tigers up in great position regarding bowl eligibility, something they will covet after their bowl game was canceled last year due to COVID-19.

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Drinkwitz entered the season at 11-8 ATS against conference opponents in his career, including 10-2 SU at home and 2-1 ATS as a home dog. Most notably, his teams have gone 18-1 SU and 13-5 ATS when outgaining their opponents, something they have a tremendous chance to do here. After all, the Aggies lost the yardage battle by over 140 yards in each of their last three games, their lone SEC games thus far. If Mizzou can outgain A&M here, the Tigers are likely to leave with a victory as the yardage winner has won 21 straight Missouri games.

Missouri’s current run of nine straight games without an ATS victory coupled with Texas A&M’s high profile win last weekend give us tremendous line value on the Tigers here. Mizzou is actually 5-1 SU in the last six head-to-head meetings with the Aggies, as well as 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings. In fact, three of their last four wins against A&M came as dogs, including a 34-27 victory as 3.5 point underdogs in their last head-to-head meeting back in 2014.

Texas A&M vs. Missouri Pick

The Aggies don’t play on field turf often and have failed to cover each of their last four tries on artificial surfaces. Crazily, they will be playing their first true road game in 2021 against a Mizzou bunch that entered the season having covered six straight games as dogs of less than 12 points after scoring 35 or more points previously (the Tigers beat North Texas 48-35 last week). Look for Missouri to catch Texas A&M napping here and perhaps even steal a win to move above .500 heading into the bye.

Our Pick: Missouri +9.5 (PointsBet -110)

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Air Force vs. Boise State

Boise State pulled off an upset of BYU last weekend, giving them a bit of perhaps undue notice in the college football community. The reality is that BYU was uncharacteristically sloppy with the football, turning it over four times, allowing Boise State to steal a win despite getting outgained 413-312 in the game. That was the fourth time in six games this season that the Broncos lost the yardage battle and against a team like Air Force, losing that war most certainly will spell their doom. On top of it all, the Falcons are unlikely to help the hosts out the way the Cougars did, as Air Force has only turned the ball over three times all season.

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Air Force is the kind of team you love to back because they do the little things well. Besides protecting the ball extremely well, they have a reputation for playing disciplined football and absolutely owning the game clock. The Falcons boasted the nation’s fewest penalty yards per game in 2019, along with the third highest time of possession, before dropping to just 17th in each last season. That was obviously a point of emphasis with longtime head coach Troy Calhoun, as his team returned to the top spot in least penalty yards per game this season (28.6) and currently sit second behind Army in time of possession (38:24 per game), a number that has spiked to 40:25 in the team’s last three games, the best mark in FBS over that span.

The Air Force rushing attack is second to none, dominating college football with 341.3 yards per game on the ground. They will face a Boise State rush defense that is 98th in the country at stopping the run (180.2 ypg) and has had most of its defensive line miss time and carry questionable tags this week. It’s nearly impossible to prepare for the Air Force ground game with a perfect week of practice, let alone in the state of disarray that this defensive front is in.

The Falcons play their time of possession edge to great advantage by also boasting a top ten defense which allows just 280.8 total yards per game. They give up the 14th least points per game at 16.2, as well. Air Force may gain a great advantage defensively as their 15th ranked rush defense should make short work of a Boise State rushing attack that sits 121st in the land. This will allow the Falcons to drop more guys into coverage, helping their 24th ranked pass defense neutralize the Broncos’ 30th ranked passing game.

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This game will be Air Force’s first as an underdog since last season when they lost to Boise State. They will be hungry for revenge, given the fact that they outgained the Broncos in that one and still lost, due in part to a kick return touchdown they allowed. Coach Calhoun is 38-33 ATS at Air Force when his team is an underdog, which couples well with his 56-43 ATS record coming off a SU win.

The Falcons have played well in the dog role of late, losing just eight of their last 26 ATS when getting points and covering 10 of their last 14 as a road pup. That could be bad news for a Boise State bunch that is just 2-5 ATS in its last seven games as a favorite. In fact, for all the mystique surrounding the “smurf turf”, the Broncos are just 23-36 ATS as home favorites over the last decade.

BSU held BYU to just 17 points last week, while AF allowed just 14 to Wyoming. While Boise State is a poor 1-4 ATS in its last five games after allowing 19 or fewer points prior, Air Force is a blistering 20-9 ATS in its last 29 after doing so. The Falcons have also covered four of their last five against Mountain West foes, while the Broncos have managed just one ATS win in their last five versus conference opponents.

Air Force vs. Boise State Pick

Look for a letdown here for a Boise State team that overachieved last week. The Broncos have failed to cover any of their last six games after a SU win and are just 1-4 ATS in their last five following an ATS victory. Air Force should move to 7-2 ATS in recent October outings with a win on the blue turf.

Our Pick: Air Force +4 (DraftKings Sportsbook -110)

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