Last weekend, Coastal Carolina and Oklahoma State dropped from the ranks of the unbeaten, leaving just seven FBS schools with unblemished records. We know one more will drop from the shrinking list this week as Michigan and Michigan State do battle, and while our selections don’t focus on perfect teams on upset alert, there figure to be plenty of upset on the Week 9 schedule.

Let’s jump into our best bets and top college football upset picks for Week 9, backed with complete betting analysis.

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Best College Football Upsets for Week 9

Oregon State vs. California

Both teams enter this one riding high, but only one can leave with a victory. A sound California team will give itself a chance to win, as it turns the ball over the 10th least in the country. Cal also has the run defense (29th) capable of slowing down Oregon State’s seventh-ranked rushing offense (245 yards per game).

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En route to limiting Colorado to just 104 yards of total offense last week, the Bears gave up just 35 yards on the ground in a 26-3 victory. They have lost just five of their last 21 games ATS after allowing less than 100 yards on the ground in their previous outing. They also happen to have covered 13 of their last 19  games following a straight up victory, including a 7-3 ATS mark after their last 10 wins by 21 points or more. Perhaps most impressively, Cal has rattled off nine straight covers after a win when facing an opponent with a .666 win percentage or better off a win of its own.

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Oregon State’s game at Washington State a few weeks back was the school’s first as road favorites since 2014. The Beavers are just 1-5 ATS in that role over the last decade. They lost that game outright as four-point favorites, making a road favorite win here seem unlikely given Cal’s impressive record as home underdogs.

The Bears have only lost seven of their last 29 games ATS as underdogs anywhere, including just three ATS losses in their last 12 outings as home dogs. In fact, they are 7-3 ATS in that role since Justin Wilcox took over the team, which is an encouraging statistic considering their opponents are just 5-13 SU away from home under head coach Jonathan Smith — and an embarrassing 15-41 on the road over the last 10 seasons.

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Cal has gone 4-2 ATS in the last six head-to-head meetings, despite playing with double revenge here from two late losses suffered the last two years.

Oregon State vs. California Pick

Oregon State plays its first of back-to-back away games here, a spot in which they’ve lost both games five of the last six tries. Look for California to defend its home field and earn an important Pac-12 North victory.

Our Pick: California +1.5 (DraftKings Sportsbook -110)

Iowa vs. Wisconsin

Iowa had a week off to figure out what went wrong in its disastrous loss to Purdue at home two weeks ago. Your immediate concern might fairly be that the Hawkeyes could potentially fall apart after seeing their CFP chances most likely dashed. However, the way teams are dropping like flies from the undefeated ranks, head coach Kirk Ferentz is good enough to not let that mentality creep in.

His teams have bounced back well from letdowns over the years. In fact, they have covered seven of their last eight games following a loss as a favorite and four of their last five after a double-digit home loss. The Hawkeyes have also not lost any of their last four games ATS following an ATS loss.

This seemingly difficult game won’t likely bother Iowa. If they had won that Purdue game, they’d likely have entered here as favorites, so this 3+ point spot is generous to say the least.

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Iowa has covered five straight games away from home, including two SU and ATS road wins already this season. The Hawkeyes have not lost any of their last five games ATS as underdogs and are 4-2 ATS as road underdogs across the last three seasons.

That sets up well for us here, as Wisconsin head coach Paul Chryst is just 15-23-1 ATS at Wisconsin and 23-29-1 ATS overall in his head coaching career with his team listed as home favorites.

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Wisconsin picked apart Purdue 30-13 last week, catching the Boilermakers in a letdown spot following their big upset at Iowa. However, the Badgers are just 1-4 ATS in their last five games after an ATS win and just 2-5 ATS in their last seven outings after allowing less than 20 points previously.

Wisconsin is also just 3-8 ATS in its last 11 games as favorites, including a 1-4 ATS mark when laying points at home. This may be a tough spot for a Badgers team that has covered just two of its last eight conference games and two of its last nine games against above .500 opponents.

Iowa vs. Wisconsin Pick

The Badgers have only seen one of their last four home wins in this rivalry come by more than this game’s spread, and they have managed to win three of the last 10 head-to-head meetings by less than they are spotting Iowa in this one. Look for Iowa’s elite run-stopping defense to force Wisconsin to throw the ball, something that has not worked out well for them at all this season.

Our Pick: Iowa +3.5 (Caesars -110)

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Indiana vs. Maryland

It appears that Maryland is in the midst of its annual collapse under head coach Mike Locksley, a stretch that always seems to involve Indiana in some way.

Last season, Indiana handed Maryland its first of two losses to end the Terrapins’ five-game season. In 2019, the Hoosiers dealt the Terps the second of what would end up being seven straight losses to end the season, a run that included four straight defeats by at least 31 points each.

Currently, Maryland is on a three-game losing streak both SU and ATS, during which they have failed to top 17 points while allowing over 50 points per game. During a three-game stretch of that 2019 collapse, the Terps failed to score more than 14 points in any game and then went on to lose their next outing by a 54-7 final at home to Nebraska.

Could we be set for something similar here?

It sure seems possible when you consider that Maryland has not covered against a Power Five school as home favorites since its second game of the 2019 season. In fact, this program is just 25-34 SU at home over the last 10 seasons, including a 5-20 SU home record under Locksley entering 2021.

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Maryland has also been particularly poor in conference play, dropping six straight against Big Ten foes, including all four opportunities this season. Going back further, the Terps are just 5-13 ATS in conference play under Locksley and are just 23-62 SU and 33-52 ATS since the start of the 2011 season against conference opponents.

Maryland lost, 34-16, at Minnesota last week and has now covered just one of its last six October games. Further, the Terrapins are just 2-7 ATS in their last nine tries following a SU loss and only 1-4 ATS in their last five efforts after scoring less than 20 points.

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The Hoosiers, like many others these days, were throttled by Ohio State 54-7 last week, as they looked to figure out their quarterback situation without Michael Penix Jr. and backup Jack Tuttle. However, encouragingly, they have covered four straight games after allowing more than 40 points previously. The Hoosiers have also run off seven straight ATS wins against above .500 conference opponents when entering off a SU and ATS loss.

Indiana vs. Maryland Pick

Indiana has covered five of its last seven away games against teams with winning home records. The Hoosiers are also an impressive 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games as road dogs, including a perfect 7-0 ATS run over the last three seasons entering 2021.

Look for them to find a way to get it done in College Park here, as well.

Our Pick: Indiana +5.5 (FanDuel Sportsbook -110)

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