Daniel_W

I don't think Malzahn was the answer at Auburn, and I stand by that. But how a coach is replaced is just as crucial as moving on from a coach when things have stagnated and show no real signs of improving. The timing on this was bad, and the optics are bad, and there appears to have been zero forethought. Auburn needed to act in a professional and business-minded manner in order to turn the corner on the narrative established by the departures of Terry Bowden, Tommy Tuberville, and Gene Chizik (Bowden and Tuberville resigned, but after much politicking against them, e.g. JetGate, while Chizik was fired), and instead this move feeds right into the 'Auburn is Hell to coach at' stereotype. I am used to Auburn politics, but given how many times that has blown up spectacularly, I can't believe how this has been handled. Is nothing ever learned? Was this seriously the plan? Pay Malzahn's buyout in order to elevate 62-year-old Kevin Steele? How does this improve Auburn's issues with recruiting, offensive woes, etc? Kevin Steele is not a definitive upgrade over Malzahn, nor would his elevation be an investment in the future of the program. It would instead be a stopgap measure that comes at the cost of Malzahn's buyout, and possibly defensive regression if Steele hands over the defensive reins to a new DC. I did hope Kevin Steele would remain on as defensive coordinator under a new head coach, as I doubt a new head coach could find a better candidate for DC at this juncture, and keeping Steele would offer some needed stability. But Steele as head coach? No way. Steele is not cut from the same cloth as Ed Orgeron, and people need to stop making that comparison. If Kevin Steele is named head coach, heads need to roll. AD, BoTs, etc. There needs to be a sea change at Auburn; I thought the hiring of Allen Greene might have possibly been a step in that direction, but I guess not. The firing and search process thus far has done (further) damage to Auburn's credibility, but it can be somewhat salvaged if there is hire worth the circus. But if this keeps heading down the road it currently appears to be on, it has the potential to seriously set the program back. Prior to COVID, I wasn't expecting Auburn to pull the trigger until Malzahn's buyout was <= $10,875,000, due to the optics (do a web search for the article "An Analysis Of College Football And Basketball Coach Buyouts" published earlier this year by Athletic Director U). Once COVID hit, I thought Malzahn would actually make it to the end of his contract, but that his contract wouldn't be renewed. When Auburn ended up pulling the trigger, I assumed they must have a definitive upgrade waiting in the wings in order to justify the timing, optics, and cost. Was I ever wrong. Also, out of curiosity, if Auburn had waited until January 1, 2021 to fire Malzahn instead of December 13, 2020, as per his contract, wouldn't Malzahn's buyout have dropped to $16.2 million (instead of the $21.45 million he's getting)? I'm tired of how poorly things have been handled in recent memory when pushing Auburn football coaches towards the door, as well as the knee-jerk pay raises some have gotten during happier times. It's an intense pendulum. Gus Malzahn should have never received his $49 million contract (let Arkansas poach him if they really wanted him that badly), but the way his firing and replacement have been handled thus far are just as embarrassing. Whatever coach comes next will probably want a similarly structured buyout to Malzahn's (regardless of what they are paid per year), although Steele may agree to some concessions if campaigning for the job. I wouldn't be surprised if external candidates want and arm and a leg in compensation regardless of their coaching abilities and the overall market demand for their services, just due to the environment here.

I completely agree with the optics parts. The buyout money is (in principle) already at hand via boosters, even with the financial impacts of COVID, but the optics are bad, and not just due to COVID-19. While I feel the particulars of Malzahn's situation are different from that of previous Auburn coaches, if he is fired or otherwise pressured to leave (I don't think he would leave due to pressure, only firing), I have little doubt that talking heads will bring up Auburn's history with coaches after Dye (predominately with regard to Bobby Lowder's time of influence), which carries some risk of poisoning the well during a coaching search. Prior to COVID-19, I would have said Malzahn's employment could have been slightly tenuous as of January 2021, and palpably tenuous as of January 2022. But I believe COVID-19 has given Malzahn some cushion. Beyond the optics of firing a coach in a COVID year (but have these optics really hurt South Carolina?), I think the argument will be that COVID-19 kept the team from jelling this year. Never mind that every other team in the nation has had to navigate COVID-19, just like every other team has had to deal with any number of excuses (e.g. youth and inexperience, etc.) Malzahn gives year after year. I believe this season will be considered a write-off by those who have say in the matter. Next season (if COVID-19 doesn't further disrupt training) will be pitched as the first real look at Chad Morris's offense (groan). And if next season goes south, it will essentially be considered year one in Chad Morris's system, and thus an early work in progress. Or if next season is also disrupted by COVID-19, it may also be considered a write-off, although I feel that some coaches could do more to rein in (i.e. surrogate parent) and protect their players from the risk of COVID. Prior to COVID-19, I could envision a scenario in which Malzahn was fired. However, at this point, unless Malzahn has two <.500 seasons in the next three years, I expect him to make it to the end of his contract. I'm not including 2024 in that consideration, as I think if things go poorly in 2024, they would just let him finish out his contract rather than fire him. But I think Malzahn may be a symptom rather than the root cause. What is Auburn University Athletics' (as well as the external power brokers') vision for excellence? Whether Malzahn is fired next season (which I see as highly unlikely at this point) or makes it to the end of his contract, the decision-makers should already have an astute/discerning, vetted short list in place (to the degree that you can vet candidates without yet interviewing them), and unfortunately I have little confidence in their abilities to make these kinds of decisions, nor their willingness to let a head coach have complete dominion over the football program. When it comes time to replace Malzahn (whenever that happens), there already needs to have been a sea change at Auburn in terms of how things are done. Business as usual has not been working for some time at Auburn, but transient spikes in good fortune have somewhat obscured this. Thus far, the more things have changed, the more they have stayed the same. Malzahn's current contract is a millstone around Auburn's neck, and in some ways, a millstone around Malzahn's neck as well. Malzahn is overpaid. What are the chances Jimmy Sexton would agree to a notable reduction in salary when it came time for contract renewal talks? While Auburn fans want to see Auburn excel, Malzahn's contract definitely sets a level of expectation that is not being met. Furthermore, [unless there are three double-digit win regular seasons in the next four years (2021-2024)], Malzahn's contract (if used a baseline in contract renewal talks), when paired with his overall deliverables, makes it unpalatable to bring him back. Beyond the negative effects of the punitive buyout, Malzahn's contract could also potentially hurt Auburn with possible replacements, if candidates use Malzahn's most recent contract as a basis for what they believe they should receive, irrespective of their past results (some of them might also be Jimmy Sexton clients as well). Talking heads ask who could Auburn possibly replace Malzahn with, but I ask what halfway-decent P5 program would want Malzahn as a head coach at this point? Arkansas certainly wouldn't. As stated, what I hear time and time again from talking heads is, "Who could Auburn get that would do a better job than Malzahn?" I disagree. While there are some head coaches and coordinators Auburn has no chance of wooing, there are certainly coaches out there within Auburn's means who could do a better job at recruiting players, developing players, adapting their systems to the talent they have, evolving their systems to meet the changing landscape of the game, and delivering fairly consistent top-12 (end of season) results (perhaps that expectation is lofty, but it is not astronomical). Yes, Malzahn led the 2013 team to the national championship game (and as offensive coordinator had a hand in the 2010 team's success), but the rollercoaster of inconsistency has been backbreaking. But for argument's sake, let's say Auburn couldn't possibly find a coach who can (consistently) do better than Malzahn, and Auburn's lot in life is to be a mid-tier program. Then the issue isn't finding a coach better than Malzahn, the issue becomes finding a coach who can offer around the same level of results (on average) as Malzahn for less than an average of $7 million a year, and the pool of candidates who can do that is certainly larger than the pool of candidates who can do better. My level of enthusiasm for the program is pretty low at the moment, and has been for a while.

^DJ Williams not Zykeivous Walker. :p

If we are going to play a game of what ifs, if you go back and watch the down with the sound turned up, at the moment the refs begin to blow their whistles, no one had possession of the ball. At that moment, Auburn #11 Shedrick Jackson was in midstride and had jogged back to where Auburn #10 Bo Nix was when the whistles began. Also at that moment, Auburn #3 Zykeivous Walker was on top of Arkansas #7 Joe Foucha. When Walker heard the whistles, he then got off of Foucha allowing Foucha to further pursue the ball. Jackson made it to the football near the ref's feet at the same moment as Foucha, but Jackson didn't put much effort into fighting for the ball (presumably because the whistles were blowing). Had the whistles never blown, Walker might not have gotten off of Foucha, so Foucha wouldn't have been free to further pursue to the ball. Even if Foucha had made his way free of Walker, I think Jackson would have wrestled for the football with actual effort (and probably run faster to the ball than he did). Bad officiating to be sure, but there is no guarantee who would have recovered had the whistles not been blown. I don't feel Arkansas was robbed of possession so much as fans were robbed of certainty in the matter. I do sympathize with Razorback fans though; it was a blown call.

If Malzahn leaves Auburn of his own choosing, he isn't owed a buyout. As per contract, if Malzahn chooses to leave, he will owe Auburn $7 million if he leaves before December 31, 2019. The buyout drops $2 million each remaining year until it hits $1 million after December 30, 2022. If Malzahn chooses to leaves (e.g. to become head coach at Arkansas), I would not be surprised if that amount is negotiated down.

As long as Auburn continues to have respectable recruiting classes, I don't think Auburn can afford the negative publicity of buying out Malzahn's contract before 2021. As things currently stand, I don't expect him to last beyond 2023 though. Maybe he will leave of his own volition. Or perhaps he will catch lightning in a bottle again, and get an exorbitant contract extension and salary increase.

If Gus Malzahn's teams _consistently_ went 9-3 or better during the regular season (with an allowance for four regular season losses, but no more, once every five years) without adding another cream puff to the schedule in order to achieve this, he would be in a much better position on the Plains; if his teams went 10-2 regularly I think he would have excellent job security. Although Jimbo Fisher hasn't elevated Texas A&M yet, it may only be a matter of time. If that happens, then Auburn will be routinely trailing Alabama, LSU, and Texas A&M in the SEC West Division. As for the SEC East Division, Dan Mullen has had a reasonably good showing at Florida the last couple of seasons (not that Auburn plays Florida regularly), and Auburn continues to struggle against Georgia. Auburn is solidifying itself as a middle-of-the-pack (i.e. an "also-ran") program in the SEC. Gus Malzahn has had a couple of highs, but the pendulum of inconsistency has been killer. Versus Alabama (2-4 under Malzahn, with this year's Iron Bowl yet to be played); versus LSU (2-5 under Malzahn); versus Georgia (2-6 under Malzahn). Gus Malzahn's salary exacerbates the situation. He is being paid elite money for modest results. His contract also sets a bad precedent for future contract negotiations at Auburn, whether with Malzahn or a subsequent coach. Malzahn is not awful, but it seems like Auburn is treading water while its traditional rivals are pushing hard towards excellence (to varying degrees of success). If Auburn were to replace him, I'm not sure that Auburn power brokers could identify a good coach to replace him, not that there aren't good coaches out there, and not that there aren't good coaches willing to come to Auburn (for the right amount of money). If Malzahn were replaced would a new head coach seek to replace Kevin Steele as defensive coordinator? That could easily set Auburn back even further. If a new head coach were brought in, would Kevin Steele even be willing to stay on as defensive coordinator? If Kevin Steele were elevated to head coach at Auburn, would his attention be diverted from the defense to its detriment? And if he were made head coach, what would be Kevin Steele's vision for Auburn's offense be? Would he be adaptable as a head coach? What kind of program does Auburn want to be? Based on outside appearances, the program appears to be run like a hot-and-cold, melodramatic teen romance and not like a results-driven business.

The fact that he thinks Bobby Lowder was a stabilizing influence at Auburn tells me all I need to know about Paul Finebaum's lack of insight. The problems with Auburn University didn't end with Bobby Lowder, as there are several, but Lowder was definitely a problem (regardless of what Lowder's intentions may have been). Any way this plays out, Finebaum will excoriate Auburn.